watt v miller SI column - The Orange Mane

MrPeepers · 11-27-2012, 08:50 AM

The Deep End

Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions:

Playing Time: Watt has played 89 percent of Houston's defensive snaps and Miller 90 percent for Denver. Watt has been so dominant that teams have had to start game-planning just to stop him. So the Texans have moved him from his favored position on the left. In 2011 he was on the left 85 percent of his snaps, but it's 74 percent this year, as the Texans have shifted Watt around to counter blocking schemes. Miller has actually spent more time on his preferred left side (72 percent, up from 67 percent last year) because his position and style of play means he is far harder to scheme against. EDGE: Even.

Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football. In productivity terms that gives Watt a stop on 18 percent of running downs; the next best is Justin Smith at 12 percent. Miller can't match those pure numbers (he's 12th in the same stat against outside linebackers) but that's not his game. His position on the field distorts those figures. It's much fairer to say when he makes a play in run defense, it's usually a big one; the average gain on his 24 tackles in run defense? Minus-1 yard. EDGE: Watt.

Pass Rush: Miller is the most devastating pass rusher at any position in the NFL. There is no one on offense who can consistently match up to him; offensive linemen are not quick enough to counter his acceleration. The 49ers' brilliant outside 'backer, Aldon Smith, has 43 quarterback disruptions this year on 292 pass rushes. Miller has 61 on 297, 41 percent more on nearly the same number of attempts. Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes). They come a close second in productivity terms to the Bengals' Geno Atkins, who has 40 QB disruptions on 300 pass rush snaps. EDGE: Miller

Coverage: Well, Watt doesn't cover, so this is an odd stat for him (he's dropped in coverage only 14 times), but there has to be a way to count his passes swatted away. He has tipped 13 passes at the line of scrimmage, more than twice as many as the next player. Since 2008, the most we'd had in a full season before this was in 2009, when Johnny Jolly batted down 10. Watt is probably redefining the way in which linemen will be taught to play. Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed. Having said that, he's only dropped in coverage on 92 plays so far. EDGE: Watt.

In Summary: Many players on defense are having great years, but no one is as far ahead of the competition as J.J. Watt and Von Miller. Just as Darrelle Revis did in the early part of 2011, they are redefining what's achievable at their positions. Who's better? Flip a coin. Good thing there are five games left for each, so one can win the award they both now deserve.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz2DRUUPhnC

Dedhed · 11-27-2012, 09:10 AM

Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

RhymesayersDU · 11-27-2012, 09:14 AM

Glad somebody posted this. It's going to be an interesting debate going down the stretch. Love Von, obviously, but that Watt is a beast too.

ludo21 · 11-27-2012, 09:19 AM

Miller has been devastating this year. He should DROY but Watt is a beast as well.

Kaylore · 11-27-2012, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ludo21

Miller has been devastating this year. He should DROY but Watt is a beast as well.

DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

RhymesayersDU · 11-27-2012, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

No. That's how good Von is. He wins awards he's not even eligible for.

Mediator12 · 11-27-2012, 09:31 AM

MVP is reserved for some glorious offensive player usually, but who really fits the bill for that one right now? I would love to see one voted MVP and the other DPOY. It may never happen, but who really deserves the MVP on offense this year. All the usual suspects have been below great this year, and no one is stepping up to claim it like usual.

Conklin · 11-27-2012, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dedhed

Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

watt is 1/2 a sack ahead of miller right now

Kaylore · 11-27-2012, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RhymesayersDU

No. That's how good Von is. He wins awards he's not even eligible for.

He's so much better than the other defensive rookies they give it to him twice.

bronco militia · 11-27-2012, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dedhed

Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

watt got 3 more sacks on thanksgiving. how is he trending the other way?

chickennob2 · 11-27-2012, 10:26 AM

Peter King is such a lazy POS.

Quote:

Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed.

Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

baja · 11-27-2012, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

This is what I think will happen. Plus Manning gets MVP if we go deep into the playoffs and come back player too. One of the two for sure.

ludo21 · 11-27-2012, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

my bad.

I hope no Co-dpoy.. that would suck

Chris · 11-27-2012, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chickennob2

Peter King is such a lazy POS.

Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

He wanted to but he had to eat some pizza.

Dedhed · 11-27-2012, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronco militia

watt got 3 more sacks on thanksgiving. how is he trending the other way?

You understand that one game is pretty much the opposite of a "Trend" right?

Watt had 9.5 sacks through 6 games, but has slowed to 5 sacks in the last 5. That's a downward trend.

Von had 6 sacks through 7 games and has 8 sacks in the last 4 games. That's an upward trend.

MagicHef · 11-27-2012, 11:15 AM

I'm not sure how Watt's 35 run stops are more than anyone else in football. Derrick Johnson has 42 and Lavonte David has 37.

razorwire77 · 11-27-2012, 11:23 AM

Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

bronco militia · 11-27-2012, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by razorwire77

Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

damn it!

Dedhed · 11-27-2012, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by razorwire77

Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

Now that's funny! Also probably true.

broncosteven · 11-27-2012, 11:36 AM

King drops the ball yet again.

He fails to mention forced fumbles. Miller has 4 Watt: 0 (last time I checked). Edge MILLER

I didn't follow the link because I don't want to support King in any way shape or form.

WolfpackGuy · 11-27-2012, 11:49 AM

If they could get some more push up the middle and consistently get out to leads, Von would be DPOY in a landslide.

Rock Chalk · 11-27-2012, 11:59 AM

Calm down francis. He got his comparison data from profootballfocus.com and had you actually know you, READ THE ****ING ARTICLE you'd know this.

Quote:

Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chickennob2

Peter King is such a lazy POS.

Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

BroncoBeavis · 11-27-2012, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I'm not sure how Watt's 35 run stops are more than anyone else in football. Derrick Johnson has 42 and Lavonte David has 37.

I think he was only talking among DL.

rmsanger · 11-27-2012, 12:20 PM

I bet everyone's rose colored glasses here wouldn't even think Watt has a chance.

BroncoBeavis · 11-27-2012, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chickennob2

Peter King is such a lazy POS.

Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

Who knew saying "just flip a coin between him and JJ Watt" could generate so much anger.

11-27-2012, 08:50 AM	#1
MrPeepers Ring of Famer Remember Darrent Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: AZ/CO Littleton Posts: 1,368 Adopt-a-Bronco: TBD	watt v miller SI column The Deep End Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games. If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions: Playing Time: Watt has played 89 percent of Houston's defensive snaps and Miller 90 percent for Denver. Watt has been so dominant that teams have had to start game-planning just to stop him. So the Texans have moved him from his favored position on the left. In 2011 he was on the left 85 percent of his snaps, but it's 74 percent this year, as the Texans have shifted Watt around to counter blocking schemes. Miller has actually spent more time on his preferred left side (72 percent, up from 67 percent last year) because his position and style of play means he is far harder to scheme against. EDGE: Even. Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football. In productivity terms that gives Watt a stop on 18 percent of running downs; the next best is Justin Smith at 12 percent. Miller can't match those pure numbers (he's 12th in the same stat against outside linebackers) but that's not his game. His position on the field distorts those figures. It's much fairer to say when he makes a play in run defense, it's usually a big one; the average gain on his 24 tackles in run defense? Minus-1 yard. EDGE: Watt. Pass Rush: Miller is the most devastating pass rusher at any position in the NFL. There is no one on offense who can consistently match up to him; offensive linemen are not quick enough to counter his acceleration. The 49ers' brilliant outside 'backer, Aldon Smith, has 43 quarterback disruptions this year on 292 pass rushes. Miller has 61 on 297, 41 percent more on nearly the same number of attempts. Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes). They come a close second in productivity terms to the Bengals' Geno Atkins, who has 40 QB disruptions on 300 pass rush snaps. EDGE: Miller Coverage: Well, Watt doesn't cover, so this is an odd stat for him (he's dropped in coverage only 14 times), but there has to be a way to count his passes swatted away. He has tipped 13 passes at the line of scrimmage, more than twice as many as the next player. Since 2008, the most we'd had in a full season before this was in 2009, when Johnny Jolly batted down 10. Watt is probably redefining the way in which linemen will be taught to play. Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed. Having said that, he's only dropped in coverage on 92 plays so far. EDGE: Watt. In Summary: Many players on defense are having great years, but no one is as far ahead of the competition as J.J. Watt and Von Miller. Just as Darrelle Revis did in the early part of 2011, they are redefining what's achievable at their positions. Who's better? Flip a coin. Good thing there are five games left for each, so one can win the award they both now deserve. Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz2DRUUPhnC

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11-27-2012, 09:10 AM	#2
Dedhed Ring of Famer Fare thee well Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Earth Posts: 9,730 Adopt-a-Bronco: Elvis	Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly. Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

11-27-2012, 09:14 AM	#3
RhymesayersDU Go Broncos, Nuggets, Rox GANGNAM STYLE Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Back In The 303! Posts: 14,815 Adopt-a-Bronco: Ty Lawson	Glad somebody posted this. It's going to be an interesting debate going down the stretch. Love Von, obviously, but that Watt is a beast too.

11-27-2012, 09:19 AM	#4
ludo21 RIP Darrent Williams Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Glendale, AZ Posts: 17,915 Adopt-a-Bronco: Paul Ernster	Miller has been devastating this year. He should DROY but Watt is a beast as well.

11-27-2012, 09:31 AM	#7
Mediator12 OM analyst REAL Front Seven Bandwagon !!! Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: INDY Posts: 9,701 Adopt-a-Bronco: Malik Jackson	MVP is reserved for some glorious offensive player usually, but who really fits the bill for that one right now? I would love to see one voted MVP and the other DPOY. It may never happen, but who really deserves the MVP on offense this year. All the usual suspects have been below great this year, and no one is stepping up to claim it like usual.

11-27-2012, 11:15 AM	#16
MagicHef Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,430 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	I'm not sure how Watt's 35 run stops are more than anyone else in football. Derrick Johnson has 42 and Lavonte David has 37.

11-27-2012, 11:23 AM	#17
razorwire77 Tapenade Swagga Splotchy Headed Assassin Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Albuquerque Posts: 3,267 Adopt-a-Bronco: Flash Thomas	Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

11-27-2012, 11:36 AM	#20
broncosteven The Kranz Dictum MWA: Flight Director Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Tranquility Base Posts: 29,060 Adopt-a-Bronco: MONEYBALL #38	King drops the ball yet again. He fails to mention forced fumbles. Miller has 4 Watt: 0 (last time I checked). Edge MILLER I didn't follow the link because I don't want to support King in any way shape or form.

11-27-2012, 11:49 AM	#21
WolfpackGuy Call me, "Maybe" Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Delaware Posts: 5,676	If they could get some more push up the middle and consistently get out to leads, Von would be DPOY in a landslide.

11-27-2012, 12:20 PM	#24
rmsanger Ring of Famer Another one bites the dust! Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,056 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	I bet everyone's rose colored glasses here wouldn't even think Watt has a chance.