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Old 11-27-2012, 03:11 AM   #1
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Default Denver is "the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky."

From the NY Times 5th Down blog:

Denver – 8-3 Despite Terrible Fumble Luck

The Broncos have won six straight games, and an easy remaining schedule sets them up for 12 or 13 wins. Amazingly, they’ve done this despite having terrible luck when it comes to recovering fumbles. Denver has forced 17 fumbles while coughing up 16. Once a ball is fumbled, it isn’t the better team that generally recovers the ball, it’s the team closest to the ball, and fumble recovery rates are notoriously random. Thirteen of Denver’s 16 fumbles were recovered by the defense, while the Broncos recovered only 5 of the 17 fumbles they forced. That means Denver has recovered just 24 percent (8 of 33) of the fumbles that have occurred in their games, making them as unfortunate as any team in the league. The good news for Broncos fans is that there is no reason to expect the Broncos’ poor fumble-recovery luck to continue, which makes them the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...-l-contenders/

Last edited by BowlenBall; 11-27-2012 at 03:43 AM..
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Old 11-27-2012, 03:29 AM   #2
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Super Bowl.
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Old 11-27-2012, 03:59 AM   #3
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Holy Crap were unlucky
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Old 11-27-2012, 04:10 AM   #4
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The good news for Broncos fans is that there is no reason to expect the Broncos’ poor fumble-recovery luck to continue
yeah, except they've been saying this since week 3. sometimes the coin just lands heads ten times in a row, what are you going to do?

it's also not entirely luck based. we've had people in prime position fall on the ball and not find a way to come up with it. at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.
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Old 11-27-2012, 04:28 AM   #5
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Imagine if we had a 75% recovery rate instead.
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Old 11-27-2012, 07:07 AM   #6
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Conversely, the Ravens are the luckiest team in the league.
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Old 11-27-2012, 07:13 AM   #7
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If we had played our games starting with the 16th and played to 1 (reversed our schedule ) wonder wonder what our record would be? To bad we caught Houston, NE and Atlanta early. I say we likely win 2 of the three.
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Old 11-27-2012, 07:45 AM   #8
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It doesn't seem like bad luck to me, does anybody else think we are just really bad at securing loose fumbles? I don't know how many times I have found myself screaming at the tv "Just fall on the damn ball!!!!" after some d lineman tries to pick up the ball and run with it and ends up tripping over his own feet and kicking it 10 yards down field.
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Old 11-27-2012, 08:54 AM   #9
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Maybe they don't do fumble drills?
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Old 11-27-2012, 08:57 AM   #10
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Get some interns. Have those interns hold a football while shadowing the players during the week. Interns randomly fumble the ball at times throughout the week. Players have to respond and recover no matter what they are doing.
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:05 AM   #11
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Interesting I guess ... but it's hard to quantify what this one slice of the broader, more relevant stat 'turnover ratio' means to wins and losses.
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:15 AM   #12
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Quote:
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If we had played our games starting with the 16th and played to 1 (reversed our schedule ) wonder wonder what our record would be? To bad we caught Houston, NE and Atlanta early. I say we likely win 2 of the three.
I like the fact that we lost early to teams we are likely to face in the playoffs. We weren't nearly as good as we are now, and it's always more difficult to beat a team the second time you play them.

I think that bodes well for a deep playoff run. I would like to see us somehow get to play them a Mile High.
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:21 AM   #13
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The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:23 AM   #14
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Quote:
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at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.
No, you don't. You really don't.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...le-woes-part-1
http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...ponent-fumbles
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:45 AM   #15
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Houston, Baltimore and Atlanta have all squeaked out lucky wins the past few weeks, but as thee old adage goes, good teams find ways to win and they definitely have.
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Old 11-27-2012, 09:45 AM   #16
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The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.
I know. If we have to play NE we need to get them here. HOU I'm OK going down there because of the weather and Manning playing in front of that crowd several times. I just don't like Denver at Foxboro

Manning is a Ravens killer so it will be interesting to see how they perform there in two weeks.

Balt at home is plays like teh Balt we know. On the road not so much. Just another team IMO
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:06 AM   #17
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Houston, Baltimore and Atlanta have all squeaked out lucky wins the past few weeks, but as thee old adage goes, good teams find ways to win and they definitely have.
Whatever. SD just ****ing sucks.
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:14 AM   #18
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They overcome turnovers against bad to average teams and still win. It's hard to overcome turnovers against great teams. Mistake free football gets you a ring. Starting out slow in games is a problem that needs to be shored up too. In the playoffs that can hurt you. These are self inducing that can be cleaned up. They have a great chance to run the table and get far in January.

This week will be a good test. Martin with his almost 5 yards per. V Jackson's 20 yards per will test this defense real good
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:31 AM   #19
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The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.
Football Outsiders has been on this for about four weeks. Denver has and continues to have the worst "fumble luck" statistic in the league. They believe "fumble luck" is the difference between Denver's record and the football outsider stats, which say we should have no losses or only one loss. Their position is that fumbles are bad. But there is no rhyme or reason to who recovers the fumble--that is a question of luck.
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:46 AM   #20
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People claiming it's anything but luck are being stupid. Footballs bounce in strange directions and are notoriously hard to secure in the heat of the moment. There is no explanation for our low recovery rate other than the capricious nature of probability.
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:50 AM   #21
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The ball fumble against Sd was just bad luck
All he wasvwas trying to do was get down at the 30
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Old 11-27-2012, 10:58 AM   #22
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The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place
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Old 11-27-2012, 11:02 AM   #23
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The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place
Actually it's both.
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Old 11-27-2012, 11:10 AM   #24
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Actually it's both.
Well ya, but if there was no offensive fumbles there's no chance of not recovering it. Defense is another story
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Old 11-27-2012, 11:19 AM   #25
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I do think its luck. But what if a player is clearly the only one around the ball, tries picking it up and running before possessing it? Leonhard did that once. There's a small degree of player error that goes into it too.
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