Denver's Efficiency - The Orange Mane

Rock Chalk · 11-13-2012, 02:43 PM

For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

TheReverend · 11-13-2012, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Chalk

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

jerseyboiler120 · 11-13-2012, 02:52 PM

The overall balance has been great to see developing over the past month.Don't recall quickly the last time we had back-to-back games with kick/punt returns for TD.

Rock Chalk · 11-13-2012, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheReverend

My apologies Patrick. I know you aren't an idiot but you have to throw these disclaimers on the internet.

baja · 11-13-2012, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Chalk

For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

Wonderful web site, that one gets bookmarked.

Bronco Boy · 11-13-2012, 05:44 PM

They now have us at a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. I like those odds.

broncosteven · 11-13-2012, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheReverend

F n G Douchenozzle!

Wasn't their also something about stabbing people through the iNteRNEts?

I miss the old Alec

baja · 11-13-2012, 06:42 PM

Peyton Manning, ranked #1 has a DYAR of 1,112

Matt Cassel, ranked #32 has a DYAR of - 480

Now there is a player spread for ya.

baja · 11-13-2012, 06:52 PM

Denver went from #15 on special teams last week to #8 this week

According to this web site we are #4 on defense / #4 on offense / #8 on special teams

As I was saying on the game day thread - COMPLETE TEAM.

So much fun being a Bronco fan after what we endured the last decade.

Feels like 1996 again. No Jacksonvilles, Por Favor

baja · 11-13-2012, 06:59 PM

Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs

Bacchus · 11-13-2012, 07:03 PM

and people negatively repped me for my Broncos are the best team in the NFL thread!!! LMAO!! I want my rep points back!!!!!

Bacchus · 11-13-2012, 07:07 PM

What's funny abotu the rankings is the "fumble luck". If you do not recover fumbles you actually move up in the rankings. It does make sense but is weird.

Bacchus · 11-13-2012, 07:09 PM

The Colts are 6-3 and rated #27?

TonyR · 11-13-2012, 07:19 PM

Sagarin has us at #2 behind Houston.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl12.htm

TonyR · 11-13-2012, 07:21 PM

Advanced NFL Stats has us at #1 ahead of Houston.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...s-week-11.html

Quote:

The equation here is pretty simple. Take a solid defense. Add Peyton Manning. You get a team that's very hard to beat.

Bacchus · 11-13-2012, 07:22 PM

So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.

scorpio · 11-13-2012, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bacchus

So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.

Billick at Fox Sports has us #2

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings

bronco militia · 11-13-2012, 07:37 PM

hopefully this means we get a good bowl game

baja · 11-13-2012, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronco militia

hopefully this means we get a good bowl game

It will be Super.

orangeatheist · 11-13-2012, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baja

Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs

As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..."

Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO!

baja · 11-13-2012, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orangeatheist

As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..."

Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO!

and that after a fair game against Pittsburg in Pittsburg. KC had a chance to win in overtime but Cassel fixed that with an INT.

Did you watch the game. They are so bad I almost feel sorry for the fan base, heck I do feel bad for them. Nobody should have to endure so much fail for so long.

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11-13-2012, 02:43 PM	#1
Rock Chalk Cheeky Bastards Laus Deo Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: The Backside of the Internet Posts: 29,940 Adopt-a-Bronco: Chris Harris	Denver's Efficiency For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place. These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance. http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone. They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver. For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have. Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time. New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal). Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.

11-13-2012, 02:52 PM	#3
jerseyboiler120 Seasoned Veteran New to the Forum Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: New Jersey Posts: 304 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	The overall balance has been great to see developing over the past month.Don't recall quickly the last time we had back-to-back games with kick/punt returns for TD.

11-13-2012, 05:44 PM	#6
Bronco Boy Avid Ambien Abuser It all makes so much sense! Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 1,901 Adopt-a-Bronco: Eric Decker	They now have us at a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. I like those odds.

11-13-2012, 06:42 PM	#8
baja It is what it Is. Pay attention. Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 53,763 Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book	Peyton Manning, ranked #1 has a DYAR of 1,112 Matt Cassel, ranked #32 has a DYAR of - 480 Now there is a player spread for ya.

11-13-2012, 06:52 PM	#9
baja It is what it Is. Pay attention. Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 53,763 Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book	Denver went from #15 on special teams last week to #8 this week According to this web site we are #4 on defense / #4 on offense / #8 on special teams As I was saying on the game day thread - COMPLETE TEAM. So much fun being a Bronco fan after what we endured the last decade. Feels like 1996 again. No Jacksonvilles, Por Favor

11-13-2012, 06:59 PM	#10
baja It is what it Is. Pay attention. Join Date: Apr 2001 Posts: 53,763 Adopt-a-Bronco: Buy My Book	Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%) SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs

11-13-2012, 07:03 PM	#11
Bacchus I'm buying Natasha Romanoff Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 5,184 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	and people negatively repped me for my Broncos are the best team in the NFL thread!!! LMAO!! I want my rep points back!!!!!

11-13-2012, 07:07 PM	#12
Bacchus I'm buying Natasha Romanoff Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 5,184 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	What's funny abotu the rankings is the "fumble luck". If you do not recover fumbles you actually move up in the rankings. It does make sense but is weird.

11-13-2012, 07:09 PM	#13
Bacchus I'm buying Natasha Romanoff Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 5,184 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	The Colts are 6-3 and rated #27?

11-13-2012, 07:19 PM	#14
TonyR Franchise Poster Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Mid-Atlantic Posts: 15,544	Sagarin has us at #2 behind Houston. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl12.htm

11-13-2012, 07:22 PM	#16
Bacchus I'm buying Natasha Romanoff Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 5,184 Adopt-a-Bronco: Peyton Manning	So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.

11-13-2012, 07:37 PM	#18
bronco militia Ring of Famer THE GREATEST Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: colorado springs, co Posts: 22,567	hopefully this means we get a good bowl game