|11-13-2012, 03:43 PM||#1|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: The Backside of the Internet
For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.
These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.
Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.
They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.
For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.
Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.
New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).
Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.