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Old 11-06-2012, 12:53 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Hulamau View Post
Not true about skewed momentum factors in the better analysis of aggregate poll averages. Those more complete and reliable models account for likely momentum as much as it's possible.

And a very critical factor in this case is that the only sign of momentum direction that gives us any real indication at this point beyond wishful thinking or fantasy, is the fact that in a dramatic majority of polls over the last week, and increasingly so with each passing day up through this morning, there has been a consistent and steady, even if small and incremental, shift in obvious momentum toward Obama.

That is just an objective fact based on the published polls at this point.

Romney's ONLY snowball's chance in hell to win at this point is if there has been a collective statistical bias in nearly all the polls, both individually and when taken in aggregate which, while statistically possible, is 'EXCEEDINGLY' unlikely to happen ...

The polls, of course are not infallible, however they have been, by in large, far more accurate since the mid to late 90's than from the eighties and earlier due to vastly improved understanding and technical improvements in how to model and structure polls.

If the majority of polls over the last week had started to break toward Romney, then your wishful thinking might well have a lot more merit.

But in fact, its been the exact opposite this past week with Obama gaining in momentum almost across the board in swing states as well as moving up in the national polls as well. That is a very hard reality to overcome for anyone trying to find some solace or comfort in the projection of a Romney win at this point.

In essence, Romney's only hope is now down to a Hail Mary TD from Romney's own 20 yard line with 1 second on the clock with Von, Doom and Wolfe crashing the line and with Champ, Darrell Revis and Cromartie locking down the republican receivers. It has happened, it can happen, but I sure wouldn't bet one red cent on it happening tonight at this point!

Regardless of whom nerdy Nate Silver is pulling for personally, I can find no inherent bias or flaw in his methodology or mathematics. Read his book 'The Signal and the Noise', as I did, and you are bound to be impressed at the level of detail and cross-checking he adopts to argue against what his own models might seem to be suggesting at each step of the way. Silver does this in order to continually refine those models and to give more accurate and unbiased prognostications .. his rep depends on it.

Silver isn't running any of these polls himself, his analysis is looking at what the combination of all the polls are saying in total which is a dramatically more powerful and reliable view on what is likely to happen than depending on any one or a handful of individual polls regardless if their 'house effect' leans toward Obama or Romney.

And it is certainly more solid than any amount of wishful spin from either the right or left about 'their guy'.

Those polls with a known consistent bias for either side are adjusted for in his models, such that PPP, Pew, Democracy Corp. and a couple others that tend to skew a few points toward Obama/Democrats are weighted as such, just as Rasmussen, Gallup, Gravis, Zogby and a couple of others that consistently overrate Romney/Republican chances are adjusted and weighted accordingly.

Thus, if Romney wins at this point it will truly be a large shock and upset even though the race is technically close... and I very much doubt that's going to happen. Kind of like the odds of the Broncos coming from behind to win at SD on the road in the second half with a 24-0 half time deficit!

That kind of win happens, obviously, but only once in a very blue moon. Consider that awesome Bronco win was tied, or something like that, for the largest comeback in a 665 game Monday night football history ... and also was tied in all of Bronco history!? That gives you a rough idea of what the approximate odds are. Romney's might be slightly better at this point but not much and the analogy is a good one.

In Silver's last model posted today, prior to us all getting the real results, he ran the total of all polls through his model for 100 repeat elections .. Obama won 91 times and Romney 9 times. That is not no chance for Romney, but I really wouldn't want to be in his shoes right now.

Put it this way, if Obama wins Virginia whose polls close at 7pm EST we can all go to bed early as the fat lady will have already sung.

Its sure to be an interesting evening regardless.
We'll take Ohio, because really, whomever wins Ohio is President (though Romney could win WI and NH, lose OH and still win, but that scenario isn't as likely as just winning OH if you look at historical EC/state trends).

The problem I see with the OH polls, especially the final polls is that they are claiming that 35-47% of people have already voted, when the number is closer to 31-32% (32% using 2004 turnout, 31% using 2008 turnout). And those early voters in the polls skew more Democrat, but then the OH Sec of St releases final EV numbers and it comes out with this, "While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%."

Also (same link), "The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney."

So if the polls show an OH tie, but are wrong by showing more early voters, and those early voters skew Dem, then Romney is winning OH and the presidency.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:57 PM   #102
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Yes on 64! I completely agree with the previous posters...once the pot has been stirred, more states will follow. Hopefully we can be the first to show the taxation benefits, lowered crime rates, etc. ALSO, I think it will go a long way towards paving the way for a Hemp Industry comeback (one of the most important crops in our country's history).

Broncosteven, you should definitely try out some of the edibles at some point. THC can go quite a ways towards easing your nerve pain...cookies, chocolates, carbonated drinks, chocolates, PILLS, butter...there are a wealth of options out there designed for the non smokers.

For anyone wondering, no, I don't smoke weed anymore. BUT, I firmly believe that it's something that has the potential to be beneficial on a personal AND economic level.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:04 PM   #103
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Agree w/ this 100%.......


"I have solved this political dilemma in a very direct way: I don't vote. On Election Day, I stay home. I firmly believe that if you vote, you have no right to complain. Now, some people like to twist that around. They say, 'If you don't vote, you have no right to complain,' but where's the logic in that? If you vote, and you elect dishonest, incompetent politicians, and they get into office and s...crew everything up, you are responsible for what they have done. You voted them in. You caused the problem. You have no right to complain. I, on the other hand, who did not vote — who did not even leave the house on Election Day — am in no way responsible for what these politicians have done and have every right to complain about the mess that you created." — George Carlin
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:04 PM   #104
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So if the polls show an OH tie, but are wrong by showing more early voters, and those early voters skew Dem, then Romney is winning OH and the presidency.
But they aren't showing a tie. RCP says 2.9 lead for Obama. That's without considering early voting, these are simply polls.

I wonder what rhetorical summersaults you'll muster to explain Romney's loss.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:07 PM   #105
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But they aren't showing a tie. RCP says 2.9 lead for Obama. That's without considering early voting, these are simply polls.

I wonder what rhetorical summersaults you'll muster to explain Romney's loss.

Rasmussen has OH at 49-49 as of yesterday.


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Old 11-06-2012, 01:11 PM   #106
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But they aren't showing a tie. RCP says 2.9 lead for Obama. That's without considering early voting, these are simply polls.

I wonder what rhetorical summersaults you'll muster to explain Romney's loss.
"While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%."

Edit in case you need more - what I'm saying is that the polls are wrong and the early voting SHOWS that.

Quote:
The problem I see with the OH polls, especially the final polls is that they are claiming that 35-47% of people have already voted, when the number is closer to 31-32% (32% using 2004 turnout, 31% using 2008 turnout). And those early voters in the polls skew more Democrat

Last edited by ColoradoDarin; 11-06-2012 at 01:13 PM..
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:23 PM   #107
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In a perfect world, states would determine for themselves every social issue and leave Washington with defense and commerce.

...


Please. We wouldn't even have this thing called the "United States" if that were to occur.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:27 PM   #108
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I am in chronic pain and doubt I would bother using it if it were available. It would have to come in pill form. Not going to carry a one hitter around for pain management.

Plus it is hard enough to get the meds I really need every month. I have to drive all over hell and back to get a script every month. I should be able to get 3 months worth of refills on all my meds and they should accept the scripts electronically.

If you really want to change things for those of us with chronic pain change the law so I can get freaking refills.
Dude, it comes in COOKIE form now!
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:31 PM   #109
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:36 PM   #110
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Rumor: Adams County, CO, is on track to go R for the first time since 1984.

Edit link: GOP Likes Early Signals from Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson Counties

Last edited by ColoradoDarin; 11-06-2012 at 01:42 PM..
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:41 PM   #111
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Dude, it comes in COOKIE form now!
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:47 PM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoradoDarin View Post
"While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%."

Edit in case you need more - what I'm saying is that the polls are wrong and the early voting SHOWS that.
It'd be pretty remote that ALL the polls would be wrong--as they all have different models.

Early voting isn't necessarily indicative of a change in the overall electorate, it's hard to know what to do with those numbers other than see that more Republican counties are voting earlier (there's still a limited number of votes possible in such counties). What's important are those who are changing there vote from Obama in 2008 to Romney 2012, and early voting gives us no indication of any evidence of that. It'd be a mistake to suggest that early voting debunks the polls.

This is wishful thinking.

Last edited by Pseudofool; 11-06-2012 at 01:51 PM..
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:48 PM   #113
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Rumor: Adams County, CO, is on track to go R for the first time since 1984.

Edit link: GOP Likes Early Signals from Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson Counties

That would be huge if the GOP peels off one of the blue counties around Denver. Rest of the state usually goes red.


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Old 11-06-2012, 01:56 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by ColoradoDarin View Post
Rumor: Adams County, CO, is on track to go R for the first time since 1984.

Edit link: GOP Likes Early Signals from Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson Counties
Great news. I could more easily swallow (barely) another four years of Obama if I knew my home state went red.

I've been volunteering nights at the Romney campaign this cycle. We had some many people there every night we to set up extra tables and people were using their personal cell phones for the phone banks. When we walked precincts you could always find at least three people and a car to take you. It has been in and out. Republican engagement has been off the charts here in Colorado. Will that translate to a win in Colorado? No idea. Will it translate into a national win? No idea. But if we can win the turnout vote for a change, that will go a long way toward making this competitive.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:56 PM   #115
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Rasmussen has OH at 49-49 as of yesterday.


Yeah, but Rasmussen is the outlier. Everybody else has Obama ahead anywhere from 3.6 to 4.0.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:57 PM   #116
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Please. We wouldn't even have this thing called the "United States" if that were to occur.
False.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:58 PM   #117
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"In selecting men for office, let principle be your guide. Regard not the particular sect or denomination of the candidate--look to his character. "
Noah Webster
Totally agree!
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:58 PM   #118
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Yeah, but Rasmussen is the outlier. Everybody else has Obama ahead anywhere from 3.6 to 4.0.
Gallup also has Romney up 49-48. The "everybody else" you speak of (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, NYTimes) heavily over-sampled Democrats throughout the polling process.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:00 PM   #119
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Great news. I could more easily swallow (barely) another four years of Obama if I knew my home state went red.

I've been volunteering nights at the Romney campaign this cycle. We had some many people there every night we to set up extra tables and people were using their personal cell phones for the phone banks. When we walked precincts you could always find at least three people and a car to take you. It has been in and out. Republican engagement has been off the charts here in Colorado. Will that translate to a win in Colorado? No idea. Will it translate into a national win? No idea. But if we can win the turnout vote for a change, that will go a long way toward making this competitive.
Awesome job Kahn!
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:01 PM   #120
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It'd be pretty remote that ALL the polls would be wrong--as they all have different models.

Early voting isn't necessarily indicative of a change in the overall electorate, it's hard to know what to do with those numbers other than see that more Republican counties are voting earlier (there's still a limited number of votes possible in such counties). What's important are those who are changing there vote from Obama in 2008 to Romney 2012, and early voting gives us no indication of any evidence of that. It'd be a mistake to suggest that early voting debunks the polls.

This is wishful thinking.
You don't think a difference in early voting trends from 4 years ago (D's down 4%, R's up 14%, total swing of 18%...) isn't huge? Wow.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:01 PM   #121
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Wish i could vote yes on something like 64 but i live in a broken state
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:01 PM   #122
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Gallup also has Romney up 49-48. The "everybody else" you speak of (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, NYTimes) heavily over-sampled Democrats throughout the polling process.
This guys posts all of them. Check it out:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:03 PM   #123
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This guys posts all of them. Check it out:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Its all a conspiracy roh. The polls that favor romney are the only ones that matter

But id be incredibly disheartened with Romney won. Incredibly. And im not even a huge Obama fan, clearly everything I believe in falls left of him. But ugh, I personally don't even understand what Republicans see in Romney other than "he's not obama"

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Old 11-06-2012, 02:06 PM   #124
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In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville,VA at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Martinsville,VA at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:09 PM   #125
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Everyone relax.

Obama promised a change that not only never came, but no steps were even taken towards it.

National gamble. You win some, you lose some. Time to move on.
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