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Old 11-06-2012, 09:16 AM   #26
Archer81
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Voted last tuesday. I remember seeing alot more Obama signs/stickers in 2008. But I live outside the 6 counties around Denver that decide the direction Colorado goes in.

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:18 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enjolras View Post
He got every senate race correct except for three (the coin flips in Colorado and Alaska, along with the surprise in Arizona). The one in Arizona was most definitely an issue with the polling data.

He struggled a bit with the house races, but that makes sense. Polling data for individual district races tends to be sparse. It's hard to have a good statistical model without data.

Essentially his models have been shown to work well when there is a lot of data available. For a presidential election that is most definitely true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThi...term_elections

And the data might be wrong. Polls with dems regularly +5 or more skews the polls and supposes voter enthusiasm will side with the democrats, like in 2008. Alot of assumptions to make.

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:19 AM   #28
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My mostly non partisan Election Day thoughts! Just cuz...http://peelingtheskin.blogspot.com/2...-thoughts.html
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:20 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sirhcyennek81 View Post
And the data might be wrong. Polls with dems regularly +5 or more skews the polls and supposes voter enthusiasm will side with the democrats, like in 2008. Alot of assumptions to make.

History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:22 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enjolras View Post
He got every senate race correct except for three (the coin flips in Colorado and Alaska, along with the surprise in Arizona). The one in Arizona was most definitely an issue with the polling data.

He struggled a bit with the house races, but that makes sense. Polling data for individual district races tends to be sparse. It's hard to have a good statistical model without data.

Essentially his models have been shown to work well when there is a lot of data available. For a presidential election that is most definitely true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThi...term_elections
So you're saying he did okay, except for the races he didn't? And I think you mean Nevada instead of AZ (he predicted Angle to win by 3 and Reid won by 5.5). There were only 5 close races in the senate that year and he got 3 wrong, including 1 massively wrong (8.5% off). He gave the Republicans as much chance of picking up 60+ seats as he has given Romney to win (R's picked up 63).

So yeah, he's not all that great.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:24 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.

We'll see.


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Old 11-06-2012, 09:25 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang View Post
History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.
Not really. The aggregate of polls is better, but not perfect either.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:30 AM   #33
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Not really. The aggregate of polls is better, but not perfect either.
I didnt say it was perfect, i said its generally been accurate
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:32 AM   #34
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Here's Romney, arriving at his polling station.

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:35 AM   #35
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:36 AM   #36
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:37 AM   #37
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Here's Romney, arriving at his polling station.

And Obama...

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:38 AM   #38
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Dropped off my ballot last week too. (Oregon mail voting -- love it!)

Happy Election Day, y'all, and many happy returns.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:41 AM   #39
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CNN poll had it tied at 49 with a +11 democrat sample. In the poll where everyone looks over it had 99% of republicans voting for mitt. 1% voting for Obama. Independents voting 59% mitt 39% Obama. 93% democrats voting for Obama and 5% voting for mitt.

That 5% of democrats voting for Mitt? That could be huge
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:44 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic View Post
CNN poll had it tied at 49 with a +11 democrat sample. In the poll where everyone looks over it had 99% of republicans voting for mitt. 1% voting for Obama. Independents voting 59% mitt 39% Obama. 93% democrats voting for Obama and 5% voting for mitt.

That 5% of democrats voting for Mitt? That could be huge
The popular vote is inconsequential. So who cares.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:44 AM   #41
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Republican turnout is looking pretty good.

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:44 AM   #42
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I was going to vote, until some ****ing nihilist threw a ****ing marmot in my bathtub and ****ed up my rug. And now I'm out of half and half. I don't have time for this ****.
It must be exhausting
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:51 AM   #43
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Democrats decide to walk to the polls to save the planet.

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:54 AM   #44
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Republican turnout is looking pretty good.

So is Democrat turnout...

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Old 11-06-2012, 09:54 AM   #45
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The popular vote is inconsequential. So who cares.
Ya why leave it up to the entire population when we only need Cleveland browns fans and people who chew others face off. Obama. The president of 9 states.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:00 AM   #46
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:01 AM   #47
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Quote:
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Ya why leave it up to the entire population when we only need Cleveland browns fans and people who chew others face off. Obama. The president of 9 states.
Switching to the popular vote wouldn't increase the number of states needed to win.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:06 AM   #48
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Switching to the popular vote wouldn't increase the number of states needed to win.
I'm just not a fan of the electoral. Didnt bush lose the popular vote but still win? Can't remember. Out here in Cali your vote doesn't count unless you're with one party. The measures and propositions out here are more important. Obama says no taxes on the middle class but neither mitt or Romney is going to stop gov brown from taxing everyone
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:22 AM   #49
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:36 AM   #50
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(no, I'm not seriously voting for a fictional character)
^ btw, that was in reference to those of you voting for Obama
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