Election Day!

[sirhcyennek81]

Voted last tuesday. I remember seeing alot more Obama signs/stickers in 2008. But I live outside the 6 counties around Denver that decide the direction Colorado goes in.

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[sirhcyennek81]

Originally Posted by enjolras

He got every senate race correct except for three (the coin flips in Colorado and Alaska, along with the surprise in Arizona). The one in Arizona was most definitely an issue with the polling data.

He struggled a bit with the house races, but that makes sense. Polling data for individual district races tends to be sparse. It's hard to have a good statistical model without data.

Essentially his models have been shown to work well when there is a lot of data available. For a presidential election that is most definitely true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThi...term_elections

And the data might be wrong. Polls with dems regularly +5 or more skews the polls and supposes voter enthusiasm will side with the democrats, like in 2008. Alot of assumptions to make.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

My mostly non partisan Election Day thoughts! Just cuz...http://peelingtheskin.blogspot.com/2...-thoughts.html

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Originally Posted by sirhcyennek81

And the data might be wrong. Polls with dems regularly +5 or more skews the polls and supposes voter enthusiasm will side with the democrats, like in 2008. Alot of assumptions to make.

History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.

[ColoradoDarin]

Originally Posted by enjolras

He got every senate race correct except for three (the coin flips in Colorado and Alaska, along with the surprise in Arizona). The one in Arizona was most definitely an issue with the polling data.

He struggled a bit with the house races, but that makes sense. Polling data for individual district races tends to be sparse. It's hard to have a good statistical model without data.

Essentially his models have been shown to work well when there is a lot of data available. For a presidential election that is most definitely true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThi...term_elections

So you're saying he did okay, except for the races he didn't? And I think you mean Nevada instead of AZ (he predicted Angle to win by 3 and Reid won by 5.5). There were only 5 close races in the senate that year and he got 3 wrong, including 1 massively wrong (8.5% off). He gave the Republicans as much chance of picking up 60+ seats as he has given Romney to win (R's picked up 63).

So yeah, he's not all that great.

[sirhcyennek81]

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.

We'll see.

[ColoradoDarin]

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

History has shown polls have generally been accurate. Even a conservative reading of current ones should have the president winning. But really who knows.

Not really. The aggregate of polls is better, but not perfect either.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Originally Posted by ColoradoDarin

Not really. The aggregate of polls is better, but not perfect either.

I didnt say it was perfect, i said its generally been accurate

[Rohirrim]

Here's Romney, arriving at his polling station.

[ludo21]

GARYJOHNSON2012

[sirhcyennek81]

[ColoradoDarin]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Here's Romney, arriving at his polling station.

And Obama...

[sisterhellfyre]

Dropped off my ballot last week too. (Oregon mail voting -- love it!)

Happy Election Day, y'all, and many happy returns.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

CNN poll had it tied at 49 with a +11 democrat sample. In the poll where everyone looks over it had 99% of republicans voting for mitt. 1% voting for Obama. Independents voting 59% mitt 39% Obama. 93% democrats voting for Obama and 5% voting for mitt.

That 5% of democrats voting for Mitt? That could be huge

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

CNN poll had it tied at 49 with a +11 democrat sample. In the poll where everyone looks over it had 99% of republicans voting for mitt. 1% voting for Obama. Independents voting 59% mitt 39% Obama. 93% democrats voting for Obama and 5% voting for mitt.

That 5% of democrats voting for Mitt? That could be huge

The popular vote is inconsequential. So who cares.

[Rohirrim]

Republican turnout is looking pretty good.

[Rabb]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I was going to vote, until some ****ing nihilist threw a ****ing marmot in my bathtub and ****ed up my rug. And now I'm out of half and half. I don't have time for this ****.

It must be exhausting

[Rohirrim]

Democrats decide to walk to the polls to save the planet.

[ColoradoDarin]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Republican turnout is looking pretty good.

So is Democrat turnout...

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by SonOfLe-loLang

The popular vote is inconsequential. So who cares.

Ya why leave it up to the entire population when we only need Cleveland browns fans and people who chew others face off. Obama. The president of 9 states.

[Smiling Assassin27]

“Elections should be held on April 16th - the day after we pay our income taxes."---Thomas Sowell

[Beantown Bronco]

Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic

Ya why leave it up to the entire population when we only need Cleveland browns fans and people who chew others face off. Obama. The president of 9 states.

Switching to the popular vote wouldn't increase the number of states needed to win.

[Drunken.Broncoholic]

Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco

Switching to the popular vote wouldn't increase the number of states needed to win.

I'm just not a fan of the electoral. Didnt bush lose the popular vote but still win? Can't remember. Out here in Cali your vote doesn't count unless you're with one party. The measures and propositions out here are more important. Obama says no taxes on the middle class but neither mitt or Romney is going to stop gov brown from taxing everyone

[TheElusiveKyleOrton]

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

(no, I'm not seriously voting for a fictional character)

^ btw, that was in reference to those of you voting for Obama