Three New Likely Voter Polls

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Speaking of Ohio...

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Obama at 49%, Romney 46% nine days before election: Reuters Poll

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AP Analysis: Obama is poised to win the election

AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.

The analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina.

http://news.yahoo.com/advantage-obam...-election.html

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Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:26 PM PDT

PPP Confirms Late Obama Surge in Swing States

Public Policy Polling released three polls this evening, all of them bearing good news for the home team. But it's even better than that. In PPP's last 8 swing state polls, in 8 different states, Team Obama has gained over their previous poll.

Same state, same polling organization, same polling methodology, 8 straight increases. Those increases, by the way, range from 1 to 4 points and an average of 2.4 points. In any one case you could explain the increase by random fluctuation. But 8 straight in 8 different states? What are the odds?

If you had a coin with Obama on one side and Romney on the other, what are the odds it would come up Obama 8 straight times? That would be 0.5 to power of 8 or less than 1%. To be exact, 0.39%.

It's not random. Here are the details:

Oct. 28, Ohio 51-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week prior)
Oct. 28, Florida 49-48 Obama (from 48-49 Romney two weeks ago)
Oct. 28, NH 49-47 Obama (from 48-49 Romney last week)
Oct. 25, CO 51-47 Obama (from 50-47 last week)
Oct. 25, NC 48-48 Obama (from 47-49 a week and a half prior)
Oct. 25, IA 49-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week ago)
Oct. 25, WI 51-45 Obama (from 49-47 three weeks prior)
Oct. 25, VA 51-46 Obama (from 49-47 last week)

Pretty stunning really.

Now, why do the swing states look good for Obama but the national polls are tied at best? For me, it's not a mystery. The swing states have been inundated with TV ads for 6 months and the other states have not. Absent any TV ads anywhere, Romney would be winning due to a sluggish economy mostly. But the Obama ads, especially in the summer have been devastating to Romney. He was simply disqualified in a lot of swing states voters' minds before the conventions and debates ever started. If the Obama folks blanketed those ads coast to coast you'd be seeing a national poll lead. But, as you would expect from Obama/Axelrod/Messina and company, resources are being targeted exactly where they are needed and not where they would be superfluous or inefficient.

[Kid A]

Last 10 Ohio polls for Obama:

-2 (Rasmussen, of course), 0, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5

Median: Obama +2.5.


Also:
By a 52-17 margin (in Quinnipiac), Ohio voters say local economy's getting better. 67% give "a lot/some" credit to Obama.

[Kid A]

We're looking at some unstoppable Ro-mentum you guys!

Obama led in 19 battleground state polls today. Romney led in one.

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 3, 2012

[Kid A]

Romentum, continued:

Simple average of national polls released Thursday: Obama +0.9. Friday: Obama +1.2. Saturday: Obama +1.3. Today (so far): Obama +1.4

— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 4, 2012

[Rohirrim]

Rupert Murdoch tells Christie to get back on the Romney bandwagon and repair the damage.

Fair and balanced, my ass.

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Originally Posted by Kid A

We're looking at some unstoppable Ro-mentum you guys!

L0L!

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Right-wing Nazi fraud alerts:

Dems in OH and FL will have to cover the spread...

Ohio's Husted launches 11th-hour scheme

By Steve Benen

Sun Nov 4, 2012 3:35 PM EST


Associated Press - Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R)

Ohio's Republican Secretary of State, Jon Husted, has invested an enormous amount of time and energy into putting new barriers between voters and their democracy, though as we've reported several times in recent months, his efforts have often been rejected by courts.

But Husted isn't quite finished.

Four days before Election Day, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted emphasized to boards of elections a step that voters who use provisional ballots on Tuesday will have to take.

Voters will be obligated to write on the provisional ballot form what type of ID they show at the polls and not rely on poll workers to do it for them, according to the directive issued late Friday afternoon.

Continued: http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/20...th-hour-scheme

Florida Early Voting Fiasco: Voters Wait For Hours At Polls As Rick Scott Refuses To Budge

Posted: 11/04/2012 3:42 pm EST Updated: 11/04/2012 4:48 pm EST



Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) has refused to extend the state's early voting hours, despite long lines at the polls. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

WASHINGTON -- Once again, Florida and its problems at the polls are at the center of an election.

Early voting is supposed to make it easier for people to carry out their constitutional right. Tuesdays are notoriously inconvenient to take off work, so many states have given voters the option of turning out on weekends or other weekdays in the run-up to Election Day.

But in Florida this year, it has been a nightmare for voters, who have faced record wait times, long lines in the sun and a Republican governor, Rick Scott, who has refused to budge and extend early voting hours.

"People are getting out to vote. That's what's very good," said Scott.

People are getting out to vote -- but many of them are having to wait in line for three or four hours to do so. One contributor to DailyKos claimed it took 9 hours to vote.

In Miami-Dade on Saturday, people who had gotten in line by 7:00 p.m. were allowed to vote; the last person wasn't checked in until 1 a.m., meaning it took some individuals six hours to cast a ballot.

"We're looking at an election meltdown that is eerily similar to 2000, minus the hanging chads," said Dan Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

Continued: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...tml?1352061746

[TonyR]

Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight Forecast now has Obama's chance of winning at 86.3%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Kid A]

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/...final-stretch#

Rather than shrink over the final two weeks of the campaign, Obama’s lead in the critical battleground states has actually grown. Obama now leads in Ohio by nearly 3 points and the president exceeds 49 percent of the vote. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to carry the toss-up states carried by twice by Bush and then Wisconsin plus either Iowa or New Hampshire. But the polls have gotten out of hand for Romney in Wisconsin, which might have something to do with why Ryan and Romney made more campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Minnesota than they did in Wisconsin over the final three days of the campaign. Combined with Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin are sufficient to provide Obama with the presidency and Romney does not lead in a non-partisan poll of either state.

It is perhaps telling that there is a case that the polls are kinder to Obama in North Carolina than they are to Romney in Ohio.

At this point, the polls must be wrong for Romney to prevail. The polls have been wrong before and they will be wrong again. The race is close enough for the polls to conceivably get one of those states wrong, but the odds are against it.

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^

Looks like Lyin' Ryan probably won't be able to deliver his home state.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kid A

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/...final-stretch#

So, in other words, Ryan can't carry Wisconsin for Romney?

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

So, in other words, Ryan can't carry Wisconsin for Romney?

Have to wonder in what choosing Rob Portman would have done for Romney in Ohio. A small bump would have gone a lot further in a state that has always been tighter in the polls.

Other alternate reality, was rumor Romney wanted Christie, which makes it crazy to think how this last week would have played out.

[TonyR]

...Romney’s chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/1...tch/#more-8258

[Mecklomaniac]

Originally Posted by TonyR

...Romney’s chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/1...tch/#more-8258

A few days ago, the word was that Team Romney was buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those states I will eat a bug. Ohio…a really big bug. And yes, I will post a photo.

Looking forward to the photo of Sam Wang eating a bug.

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Originally Posted by Mecklomaniac

Looking forward to the photo of Sam Wang eating a bug.

You and the rest of your buddies who don't believe in facts or arithmetic.

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[Rohirrim]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Rasmussen looks like the outlier.

[BroncoInferno]

RCP's final averages have Obama winning the popular vote by a scant 48.8% to 48.1%, but winning by a comfortable margin in the EC, 303 to 235. Intrade has the odds at 71.5% for Obama.

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November 6, 2012, 1:43 am

Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.



Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.

The national polls now range from showing a 1-point lead for Mr. Romney to slightly more than a 4-point advantage for Mr. Obama. The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama’s most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points, approximating the margin that George W. Bush achieved in defeating John Kerry in 2004.

Averaging polls together increases their sample size — making them much more powerful statistically than any one poll taken alone. But the errors in the polls are sometimes correlated, meaning there are years when most of them miss in the same direction. Mr. Romney remains close enough to Mr. Obama that he could fairly easily win the popular vote if there is such an error in Mr. Obama’s favor this year.

Mr. Romney’s chances are less, however, of winning the Electoral College. The large majority of polls in battleground states over the past three days have shown leads for Mr. Obama. On Monday, for example, 19 battleground state polls found leads for Mr. Obama, as compared with just three for Mr. Romney.



Ohio remains the largest problem for Mr. Romney, where he has been behind in most polls all year. Mr. Romney might ordinarily take some solace in the fact that Ohio is slightly Republican-leaning, but the auto bailout may have changed its character this year, as there is evidence that Mr. Obama is performing more strongly with working-class voters in Ohio than he is elsewhere in the country.

Mr. Obama could secure the Electoral College by winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania, along with Ohio.

A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin would now qualify as a substantial upset. He has not led in a poll there since August, and an increasing number of surveys there instead show Mr. Obama five or more points ahead.
Mr. Obama’s margins have been narrower in Nevada, but Mr. Romney has a different type of problem there: perhaps 70 percent of the state has already voted, and Democrats have locked in roughly a 7-point advantage over Republicans from the vote so far. This margin is down for Democrats from 2008, but Mr. Romney would nevertheless need an exceptional turnout on Tuesday to make up enough ground.

This has led Mr. Romney to make a last-minute play for Pennsylvania, and there is some evidence that the state has tightened slightly. But the gains for Mr. Romney may be too little and too late, or they may have been counteracted by a national trend toward Mr. Obama. With the exception of one Republican polling firm, public polls of the state still have Mr. Obama leading by three to nine percentage points.

Moreover, Mr. Obama has a number of backup options were he to lose one or more of these states. In Iowa, Mr. Obama leads by about three percentage points in the average of polls, and by a similar margin in New Hampshire. Recent polls also suggest movement toward Mr. Obama in Colorado and Virginia, and he now appears to be favored in each one.
Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount.

Only in North Carolina, among the battleground states, has Mr. Romney had a reasonably consistent polling edge over the final week of the campaign.
If the national popular vote winds up roughly tied, instead of favoring Mr. Obama by two points or so, then Mr. Romney could claw back to win Florida, Colorado and Virginia, and perhaps Iowa and New Hampshire. But Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania is clear enough to withstand some underperformance in the polls, and his margins in the polling averages there have converted into a victory on election night a very high percentage of the time historically.

In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout. It’s this possibility, more than the chance of a successful hail-mary in a state like Pennsylvania, that accounts for most of Mr. Romney’s remaining chances of winning the Electoral College.

There is also the chance that Mr. Obama could finish toward the higher end of the polling range in most states. If Mr. Obama has gained a point or two nationally because of Hurricane Sandy or other factors, then polls taken before it may underestimate his standing in the individual states as well.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility through its trendline adjustment, which is why our forecasts now are slightly more optimistic for Mr. Obama in some states than a simple average of polls. Had there been evidence of late movement toward Mr. Romney, the trendline adjustment would instead have worked in his favor.
But Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College have slipped, and are now only about 8 percent according to the forecast model — down from about 30 percent 10 days ago.

The most notable recent case of a candidate substantially beating his polls on Election Day came in 1980, when national surveys had Ronald Reagan only two or three points ahead of Jimmy Carter, and he won in a landslide instead. That year is not comparable to this one in many respects: the economy is much better now, there is not a major third-party candidate in the race, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are about 50 percent rather than 35 percent for Mr. Carter. And in 1980, Mr. Reagan had late momentum following the presidential debate that year, whereas this year the momentum seems to favor Mr. Obama.

All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

As any poker player knows, those 8 percent chances do come up once in a while. If it happens this year, then a lot of polling firms will have to re-examine their assumptions — and we will have to re-examine ours about how trustworthy the polls are. But the odds are that Mr. Obama will win another term.

[Rohirrim]

Dixville Notch has voted. 5/5 tie.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/06/politi...ml?hpt=hp_t2_6

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L0L!

Stephen Colbert mocks Joe Scarborough for his attack on Nate Silver

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

[BroncoInferno]

^ I missed that. What did Scarborough have to say about Silver?