|10-29-2012, 07:14 AM||#1|
Anybody want a peanut?
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Ceti Alpha V
Bipartisan Poll projects Romney to win decisively
I know the electoral math is where the rubber meets the road, but we've all seen the polls miss even outside the margin of error.
I was wondering if we'd see Romney win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote, like Gore did in 2000. The problem with that is Gore and Bush were less than a percentage point in seperation at the end of the 2000 election. The day before polls and exit polls had Gore up by a percentage point or more going in. Republicans have historically done a percentage point better than the polls indicate going back multiple decades. This also jives with the Gallup poll's results from a week ago. The thing about polls is no one poll is right. You have to look at trends and see if more agree than disagree.
I think the biggest red flag for the Obama campaign is only 37% think the country is on the right path. Do you really think "forward" is the right message when that is the consensus?
This next week will be telling, but I'm beginning to thik more and more those last few percentage points that are undecided and make a choice on election day will break for Romney.