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Old 10-24-2012, 06:37 AM   #1
Prodigal19
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Default Broncos Fumbles Stats

The week leading up to the San Diego game the broncos apparently ran a large amount of drills to help players hold on to the ball, as fumbles have been crucial to our demise in all 3 losses this season. In the San Diego game fumbles almost once again cost us dearly.

So what is the deal?

The Broncos have fumbled the ball 9 times so far this season, which may seem like a lot, but there are actually 20 other teams that have fumbled just as many times or more so far this season.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...=FUMBLES_TOTAL

However, we have lost ALL 9 fumbles, ranking us second only to KC with 10 lost fumbles. Do we really just suck at recovering our own fumbles or can this pretty much just be attributed to bad luck?

In each of our losses, one less fumble lost could have easily been the difference that allowed us to pull ahead. I think this just shows that we are even that much better than we have shown so far. With a little extra luck in the fumble department we could easily be 4-2 or even 5-1 with one of the toughest schedules in the league up to this point.
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Old 10-24-2012, 07:00 AM   #2
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No matter what the stats show, you always work on ball security at any level of football. Hopefully, we see an improvement and better first half competitiveness against the Saints.

About recovering your own fumbles, that's pretty much luck. Offensive players generally just fall on the ball, while defensive players are more apt to try the "scoop and score." When that ball is on the ground, it's blind luck where it ends up. I just don't remember us muffing many recoveries that we had our hands on.
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Old 10-24-2012, 07:01 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Prodigal19 View Post
The week leading up to the San Diego game the broncos apparently ran a large amount of drills to help players hold on to the ball, as fumbles have been crucial to our demise in all 3 losses this season. In the San Diego game fumbles almost once again cost us dearly.

So what is the deal?

The Broncos have fumbled the ball 9 times so far this season, which may seem like a lot, but there are actually 20 other teams that have fumbled just as many times or more so far this season.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...=FUMBLES_TOTAL

However, we have lost ALL 9 fumbles, ranking us second only to KC with 10 lost fumbles. Do we really just suck at recovering our own fumbles or can this pretty much just be attributed to bad luck?

In each of our losses, one less fumble lost could have easily been the difference that allowed us to pull ahead. I think this just shows that we are even that much better than we have shown so far. With a little extra luck in the fumble department we could easily be 4-2 or even 5-1 with one of the toughest schedules in the league up to this point.
I think fumble recoveries are more of a "being at the right place at the right time" stat. I think I remember only one Bronco fumble this season where someone tried to scoop & score and muffed it instead of just lying on it. Thus, fumble recoveries I believe can be classified in the "bad luck" category.

Moral of the story: don't put the ball on the ground. A third of those fumbles were Demaryius hauling ass down field and losing the ball in the midst of opposing players, where we are almost guaranteed not to get the ball back as we had no other Broncos down the field. Receivers fumbling and strip/sacks have accounted for a large portion of our total fumble count and those types of fumbles are rarely recovered.
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Old 10-24-2012, 07:57 AM   #4
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two of those fumbles WERE recovered by the Broncos...and then
given away by officials doing poor jobs.

Hopefully the fumble recoverys even out by the end of the year and we get a little GOOD luck to come the Broncos way.
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Old 10-24-2012, 08:57 AM   #5
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I saw one fumble lost by the refs. This problem they have recovering fumbles can be summed up on one play. The Leonhard attempt at picking up the ball. That speaks for itself.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:19 AM   #6
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I saw one fumble lost by the refs. This problem they have recovering fumbles can be summed up on one play. The Leonhard attempt at picking up the ball. That speaks for itself.
considering that was on DEFENSE, that's not really relevant to this statistic.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:19 AM   #7
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I saw one fumble lost by the refs. This problem they have recovering fumbles can be summed up on one play. The Leonhard attempt at picking up the ball. That speaks for itself.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:20 AM   #8
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Losing and causing fumbles is somewhat skill based, some players just lose more fumbles and some players just force more fumbles than others. Recovering fumbles is entirely luck based, the way the ball bounces around and the number of arms and hands flailing around makes it a coin toss.

On average most teams come up with about 50% of the fumbles during a season, both their own and the ones they force - we have been really bad at recovering so far this season, while it will eventually even out, it would be the gamblers fallacy to assume that because we are behind the curve we are due to recover a majority of fumbles the rest of the season.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:28 AM   #9
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considering that was on DEFENSE, that's not really relevant to this statistic.
You're right. But the fumbling way he went about recovering it can describe the way the TEAM goes about doing it. Meaning they aren't fully aware when its happening. Reaction is a bit slower. In these drills Id like to think the offense AND defense are going through them.

Last edited by Drunken.Broncoholic; 10-24-2012 at 09:30 AM..
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:31 AM   #10
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You're right. But the fumbling way he went about recovering it can describe the way the TEAM goes about doing it. Meaning they aren't fully aware when its happening. Reaction is a bit slower. In these drills Id like to think the offense AND defense are going through them.
Statistically, recovering fumbles have proven to be random events.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:39 AM   #11
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Statistically, recovering fumbles have proven to be random events.
Well then fate is on our side to recover every fumble lost in the 2nd half of the season! I have to think player instinct has an effect on it to a degree though

One thing that isn't random is holding the ball up in the air on the way to the endzone. One time is ok. 2 times with Harris almost dropping it is not ok.

Last edited by Drunken.Broncoholic; 10-24-2012 at 09:44 AM..
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Old 10-24-2012, 10:45 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunken.Broncoholic View Post
Well then fate is on our side to recover every fumble lost in the 2nd half of the season! I have to think player instinct has an effect on it to a degree though

One thing that isn't random is holding the ball up in the air on the way to the endzone. One time is ok. 2 times with Harris almost dropping it is not ok.
That's not how it works.

If you flip a coin 100 times and 90 times it lands on heads. The next 100 flips dont mean that 90 times its going to land on tails. You have a 50 50 shot with every single flip of the coin, regardless of how many times you do it. The more you do it, the more likely you are to be around the average but that does not guarantee anything.
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Old 10-24-2012, 10:50 AM   #13
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That's not how it works.

If you flip a coin 100 times and 90 times it lands on heads. The next 100 flips dont mean that 90 times its going to land on tails. You have a 50 50 shot with every single flip of the coin, regardless of how many times you do it. The more you do it, the more likely you are to be around the average but that does not guarantee anything.
My post was meant to be a joke.

But if you picked a random player to recover a fumble, and I picked Warren Moon, I'm gonna win.
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Old 10-24-2012, 11:12 AM   #14
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Fumbles by receivers and returners are recovered more by the other team. That's at least half of our fumble total so far.
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Old 10-24-2012, 11:46 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottXray View Post
two of those fumbles WERE recovered by the Broncos...and then
given away by officials doing poor jobs.


Hopefully the fumble recoverys even out by the end of the year and we get a little GOOD luck to come the Broncos way.
Bingo.
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Old 10-24-2012, 11:24 PM   #16
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Old 10-24-2012, 11:38 PM   #17
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I remember watching that with friends. I saw the play and knew it was Denver's ball. Went to take a leak, came back and was like WTF
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