real clear politics electoral map

[spdirty]

http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

According to this, if you are assuming the polls are right you still can't predict a winner. These battleground states are so close I guess it just depends on who has the momentum on election day. I don't know. I guess if these polls are right, my math says Romney(181) needs North Carolina(15), Missouri(10), Colorado(9), Virginia(13), Ohio(18) Florida(29) to win this thing. He doesn't need Colorado if he gets Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire. Lot of toss ups in this thing. Lot of ways this could swing. Looks like we will all be up late on election night if we want to know who wins.

[Requiem]

I can predict that Romney isn't going to get Virgina, Ohio and Florida.

Now do the electoral math.

[Blart]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
^ now predicting a virginia win for Rawmoney.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers


Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup’s tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup’s most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president’s direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.



Similarly, Gallup’s 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.

Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but it’s consistent with the movement in Rasmussen’s tracker, Obama’s strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussen’s Sunday polls, and PPP’s tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, there’s a chance that Romney’s impressive bounce might prove short-lived.

[Kaylore]

Romney is leading in Florida and Virginia by 8 points.

[pricejj]

It all comes down to Ohio.

[barryr]

Originally Posted by pricejj

It all comes down to Ohio.

Chances are good in the democrat leaning counties in Ohio, there will be more votes cast than actual people living there.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by barryr

Chances are good in the democrat leaning counties in Ohio, there will be more votes cast than actual people living there.

Says a shill for the party with an actual record of voter fraud in OH.

It's a bass-ackwards world you live in.

[Requiem]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Romney is leading in Florida and Virginia by 8 points.

He is not leading in Virginia by 8 points. A McLaughlin poll had him up 7. That is clearly a statistical outlier when over a dozen polls show each guy within the MOG.

[nyuk nyuk]

Originally Posted by pricejj

It all comes down to Ohio.

I'm related of half of Cleveland, I've got pull.

[Jetmeck]

Originally Posted by barryr

Chances are good in the democrat leaning counties in Ohio, there will be more votes cast than actual people living there.

Getting your excuses ready already............

[peacepipe]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Romney is leading in Florida and Virginia by 8 points.

according to whom? biggest lead has obama up by 5. on avg. obama is up as well.

[razorwire77]

I'm sort of a political junky and follow this stuff more than most people probably should.

Romney isn't going to win Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia and Florida. Also, Iowa and New Hampshire are still leaning Obama. Certainly, the election has tightened, but all horse-race politics aside, the math doesn't add up for Mitty. Ironic, because Mitty's math hasn't added up for the entire election. Only with the electoral college math he can't make up his own numbers and dupe the low information voters with a last second populist sprint to the middle.

Obama takes Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Romney takes Florida, Missouri, Colorado, North Carolina.

On 4th and Goal from the 10, Romney gets 8 yards.

And that's assuming the trajectory stays the same. I doubt Obama's 2nd debate performance will be as anemic as the first.

[nyuk nyuk]

Originally Posted by razorwire77

Romney isn't going to win Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia and Florida.

I don't know where you get this, but current polling isn't showing all these states going to Obama.

[razorwire77]

Originally Posted by nyuk nyuk

I don't know where you get this, but current polling isn't showing all these states going to Obama.

Romney needs to basically sweep these states. You understand that, right?

[nyuk nyuk]

According to this, Rasmussen and Pew were the most accurate in 2008.

By that, this is what those two say now:

Pew has Romney by 4 nationwide, and have several polls showing Democrats viewed unfavorably in several areas.

Rasmussen has Romney by 1.

The Rasmussen link also has battleground state numbers. By them, Romney is only 1 behind in Ohio and is leading in Florida and Virginia. I didn't see Colorado figures offhand.

[razorwire77]

Nate is the best in the business.

Right now he has Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Hamshire leaning Obama
Florida, Coloardo, Virginia leaning Mitty.

North Carolina is most likely going to go Romney.

285.4 to 252.6.

And again, that's assuming the Romney surge continues of which there are mixed signs.

[barryr]

Oh oh, Gary Johnson might actually be a factor in Nevada at least. But numbers say he would take more votes from Obama than Romney Johnson is the Libertarian candidate and is going to be on 47 state ballots.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/11/po...#ixzz29FKUgour

[peacepipe]

Originally Posted by barryr

Oh oh, Gary Johnson might actually be a factor in Nevada at least. But numbers say he would take more votes from Obama than Romney Johnson is the Libertarian candidate and is going to be on 47 state ballots.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/11/po...#ixzz29FKUgour

right-wing voters(liberatarians) that were for some reason voting for obama are now voting for johnson.

[houghtam]

Virginia has been lost to Romney ever since they were unable to keep Virgil Goode off the ballot. He will pull 5-8 points from Romney. He would need a double digit lead to even stand a chance.

[barryr]

Originally Posted by peacepipe

right-wing voters(liberatarians) that were for some reason voting for obama are now voting for johnson.

There are many democrats voting for Romney too, so what does that mean? I know, consult your liberal blogs to find an answer

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

“One important change in the latest numbers: President Obama now leads among independents,” in the states surveyed, Purple pollsters wrote. It’s the first time Obama has led independent swing-state voters in seven months, the pollsters wrote.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/20...obama-lead.php

President Obama leads Mitt Romney in a new poll of 12 key swing states.

Obama leads 49 percent to 44 percent in the poll from Purple Strategies.

The poll is a combined sample of likely voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, and also shows good news for Obama in over-sampled results for Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado. Last month’s Purple Poll showed Romney with a slight edge in swing states, 47 percent to Obama’s 46 percent.

“One important change in the latest numbers: President Obama now leads among independents,” in the states surveyed, Purple pollsters wrote. It’s the first time Obama has led independent swing-state voters in seven months, the pollsters wrote.

[houghtam]

PURPLE?!?! What kind of gay liberal nazi poll is named after a gay liberal hippie rainbow flag color?!

Polls are rigged!

[Smiling Assassin27]

This president is pulling a 'GOP' and pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. Every poll he's leading in is sampled ridiculously with +D set WAY too high. He's about to perform his triple lindy:

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

^

Is that what Rush said?