Numbers massage: "large state" left out of jobless claim report - intentional?

[Kaylore]

First this report:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146

This of course created a lot of buzz and only once the information was well spread did this little tidbit come out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/joble...-state-2012-10

"However, the report may not be as positive as the sharp drop indicates. A Labor Department economist said one large state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease."

Initially, rumors started circulating that an entire state's worth of jobless claims was excluded.

The DoL was not immediately available to comment.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/joble...#ixzz290UgTlNP

So first there's the pumped up stats with largely part timers, likely people who have have fallen off unemployment for so long they HAD to find work somewhere (but it counts as a job.)

Now you have a "large state" (probably California) not reporting their unemployment numbers to try and puff up the numbers to look better than they are. Mind you, this wasn't pointed out until the jobs report was accepted as gospel.

Strategy: Proctect Big Bird and present false date showing you're doing a good job. Awesome.

[lonestar]

Saw that also this morning.

This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC's Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures." Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise.

It is also sad that the US "economy" has devolved to such trivial data fudging on a week by week basis, which makes even the Chinese Department of Truth appear amateurish by comparison. Needless to say, Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K in the past week but who's counting. Finally, what is the reason for ongoing QEternity if the employment situation is now back to normal. Finally, in completely ignored news, because who needs global trade when you have toner cartridge, and generally ink, the US trade deficit in August rose by 4.1% to $44.2 billion, on expectations of a deterioration to $44.0 billion. Then again nobody talks about the US trade deficit during presidential debates so all good here.

Read more here. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...low-lowest-exp

Does anyone now really believe that the morons in BLS did not THINK something was wrong or are they just that corrupt to think it would not come out until after the elections.

[Pony Boy]

Biden.......(note to self) don't bring up the drop in the jobless rate in the debate tonight.

[barryr]

There are members on the BLS that also happen to donate money to Obama's campaign, but it's just a coincidence folks. Like how the liberals talk about Romney trying to lie and steal the election and we see crap like this going on and makes one wonder for how long it has.

[pricejj]

No one believes anything that comes from this administration any more. Everything they do or say is based on a trumped up lie.

Obama. Worst. President. Ever.

[orinjkrush]

career BLS staff put together the reports and give them to "management" i.e. the politicos. what they do with them afterwards, is subject to all sorts of shenanigans. examples from other depts.: WMD in Iraq; Global Warming; Levee construction; Walter Reed Hospital.

as we see here on the Mane, politics often trumps facts.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

L0L!

Right-wing conspiracy nuts are funny.

[maher_tyler]

So lets go back to what got us here in the first place...great idea!

[lonestar]

Originally Posted by pricejj

No one believes anything that comes from this administration any more. Everything they do or say is based on a trumped up lie.

Obama. Worst. President. Ever.

Shirley you jest..

3/4 of the posters in this area of the forum believe he is the best president that ever happened..

I'm thinking that they are all hiding there heads in the sand right now wondering if they can post again..

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

First this report:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146

This of course created a lot of buzz and only once the information was well spread did this little tidbit come out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/joble...-state-2012-10



So first there's the pumped up stats with largely part timers, likely people who have have fallen off unemployment for so long they HAD to find work somewhere (but it counts as a job.)

Now you have a "large state" (probably California) not reporting their unemployment numbers to try and puff up the numbers to look better than they are. Mind you, this wasn't pointed out until the jobs report was accepted as gospel.

Strategy: Proctect Big Bird and present false date showing you're doing a good job. Awesome.

Yeah. I prefer Romney's plan. What are the details? Who the **** knows? I know it has something to do with giving the rich more money and hoping for the old trickle down. Still waiting. I think it's been trickling down to the Cayman Islands.

[elsid13]

Originally Posted by orinjkrush

career BLS staff put together the reports and give them to "management" i.e. the politicos. what they do with them afterwards, is subject to all sorts of shenanigans. examples from other depts.: WMD in Iraq; Global Warming; Levee construction; Walter Reed Hospital.

as we see here on the Mane, politics often trumps facts.

Just so everyone knows how the process really works:
http://www.govexec.com/oversight/201...nlikely/58633/

the monthly employment report is released by the BLS, an independent statistical agency within Labor that is staffed by career civil servants, many of whom have served throughout both Democratic and Republican administrations. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis is in charge of GDP. Both agencies are guided by the same directive and rely on similar security measures to keep their data secret until the embargo lifts.

Each agency compartmentalizes the raw data. For the employment report, for example, most BLS analysts only see the data for a single sector, such as health care payrolls. Job growth in different sectors varies, making it difficult to get a clear picture of the headline number from a single category. In September, for example, health care picked up 44,000 jobs. Manufacturing, on the other hand, lost 16,000.

Doors to offices where embargoed data is reviewed are locked, and even within those offices, the data is kept in safes, BLS press officer Gary Steinberg said. Just a handful of employees gather in closed-door meetings to compile the final reports. At the BEA, attendees of these meetings adhere to a superstition: They don’t speak the GDP number aloud, said Thomas Dail, a BEA spokesperson. Materials from the meeting are secured; even scraps of paper bearing doodles and ink cartridges are locked up until the BEA embargo lifts.

The Labor Department has had strict policies in place for decades, said Keith Hall, who served from 2008 through this year as the thirteenth commissioner of the BLS. “BLS is keenly aware—I was certainly keenly aware when I was commissioner—that this is data that has a lot of potential value,” he said.

By Hall’s estimate, more than 100 people are involved in the BLS process from collection to its final analysis for the president. It would be very difficult for the administration to manipulate such a crowd.

The data is also compiled under an incredibly tight deadline, leaving little time for manipulation. Hall wouldn’t learn the details of the household survey, which determines the unemployment rate, until Monday of the week it was made public. The payroll data, which determines the number of jobs added or lost, would come to him on Wednesday. All agencies that deal with statistics operate under a similar mantra, he said: “Once you put the data together, don’t hold onto it.”

When the final numbers are ready, Statistical Policy Directive Number 3 requires they be shared with the president through the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers before they are released to the public. That means the president does not even see the numbers until late in the day before release.

Hall is particularly well-suited to speak to the process. Before taking on his role at BLS, Hall was chief economist to the Council of Economic Advisors from 2005 to 2008, where he and a handful of colleagues were tasked with summarizing the closely guarded monthly jobs report ahead of its release for President George W. Bush.

On Thursday, the day before the report was publicly released, a BLS official would hand-deliver the memo to the White House, usually around 3 p.m., Hall said. There was talk of transmitting it digitally, but officials couldn’t identify a method secure enough. Sometimes data would be entered into a spreadsheet on a computer isolated from the rest of the White House network.

Administration economic advisers would get to work analyzing and summarizing it for the president. “Even within the Council of Economic Advisors, there’s still only a handful—three or four—who get to see the numbers,” Hall said.

The next morning, a small group of journalists, cut off from communication with the outside world, get an early peek at the data in a pre-release lockup. The BEA shares its numbers with the agency’s web team at 7:45 a.m. The team, whose communications have also been cut off, prepares the data for its Internet debut.

“I’m not aware of any concerns that data were within BLS were manipulated for political purposes,” said Steinberg, a long-time employee of the bureau.

Safeguarding the integrity of the data has long been considered a crucial priority among government officials in both parties because the economic numbers are tracked closely by investors around the world who buy and sell U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks in American companies. As countries like Greece and Argentina have had to learn the hard way, any hint that the data might be compromised can gravely harm an economy.

[Smiling Assassin27]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

First this report:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146

This of course created a lot of buzz and only once the information was well spread did this little tidbit come out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/joble...-state-2012-10



So first there's the pumped up stats with largely part timers, likely people who have have fallen off unemployment for so long they HAD to find work somewhere (but it counts as a job.)

Now you have a "large state" (probably California) not reporting their unemployment numbers to try and puff up the numbers to look better than they are. Mind you, this wasn't pointed out until the jobs report was accepted as gospel.

Strategy: Proctect Big Bird and present false date showing you're doing a good job. Awesome.

EVERYTHING this president/administration does and says must be run through the 'deceptive or just incompetent' -inator.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

L0L @ these right-wing yokels who really think the BLS and other offices are skewing their data to help Obama.

I thought these dumb f_cks were constitutionally incapable of entertaining any sort of conspiracy theories?

[~Crash~]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Yeah. I prefer Romney's plan. What are the details? Who the **** knows? I know it has something to do with giving the rich more money and hoping for the old trickle down. Still waiting. I think it's been trickling down to the Cayman Islands.

You are waiting that is ****ing problem numb nuts! Put your ****ing back in it !

[~Crash~]

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

L0L @ these right-wing yokels who really think the BLS and other offices are skewing their data to help Obama.

I thought these dumb f_cks were constitutionally incapable of entertaining any sort of conspiracy theories?

love it ... you did make me chuckle ...when they invent a time machine move to Germany your stuff went over well in 1930 . oh and learn the goose step

[~Crash~]

Biden did one thing last night ... Democrats are back to there hatefull selfs . yepp that should ge independent ladies....lol

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by pricejj

No one believes anything that comes from this administration any more.

The jobless claim report doesn't come from "this administration".

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Smiling Assassin27

EVERYTHING this president/administration does and says must be run through the 'deceptive or just incompetent' -inator.

Yes, you should run to the polls and vote for the ticket of honesty: Romney/Ryan!!!

You're always good for a laugh, I'll give you that much.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by ~Crash~

love it ... you did make me chuckle ...when they invent a time machine move to Germany your stuff went over well in 1930 . oh and learn the goose step

Right on cue with the sort of incoherent, non-sequitur tripe we've come to expect from Teabilly Nation.

[Jetmeck]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

First this report:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146

This of course created a lot of buzz and only once the information was well spread did this little tidbit come out:

http://www.businessinsider.com/joble...-state-2012-10



So first there's the pumped up stats with largely part timers, likely people who have have fallen off unemployment for so long they HAD to find work somewhere (but it counts as a job.)

Now you have a "large state" (probably California) not reporting their unemployment numbers to try and puff up the numbers to look better than they are. Mind you, this wasn't pointed out until the jobs report was accepted as gospel.

Strategy: Proctect Big Bird and present false date showing you're doing a good job. Awesome.

Didn't know you were affiliated with the ass clowns who immeediately go to spin mode when the facts don't line up with their views.

This is BS plain and simple...............

These reports have been going down in almost every case but all of a suddeen this one is cooked up.?? Really ?

If there were gonna cook the books they would have done it early and often, certainly before now.

Nothing has changed, this report was done EXACTLY as every report before it.

Kaylore......you are embarassing yourself


Weekly job numbers fr uneployment came out couple of days ago and backed up the October job numbers.

DOL gal sorry forget her name clearly stated she was insulted anyone would think that from a non partisan branch of government.

You guys keep reaching because your ass was blown up last night.

Round 2 come Tuesday and when the facts are front and center...your guys have NO ANSWERS.

[Jetmeck]

Originally Posted by ~Crash~

Biden did one thing last night ... Democrats are back to there hatefull selfs . yepp that should ge independent ladies....lol

**** you....let em be clear...**** YOU...you hypocrite.

Romney did the exact same thing thing last week MINUS THE FACTS and people like you loved it.

**** you clown

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

**** you....let em be clear...**** YOU...you hypocrite.

Romney did the exact same thing thing last week MINUS THE FACTS and people like you loved it.

**** you clown

Exactly.

Give these Teabilly sh*t stains a dose of their own medicine, and they start blubbering like eight year-old girls with skinned knees.

[Jetmeck]

Oh I see Biden was aggresive and pushy and you didn;t like it even though Romney did the exact same thing last night. HYPROCITES


TRUTH IS YOU RIGHT TARDS GOT TORCHED ON VERY ISSUE LAST NIGHT.

Tax cuts still don't add up. Foreign policies are the same.

Tax cuts fro the rich haven't made any jobs in ten years but they

will in fantasyland where Ryan is from cause he says so like Romney says five trillion in tax cuts for the rich won't cost the middle class or raise the deficiit.

You guys got torched but keep flailing about blaming Biden for being agressive just like Romney did.

Also keep with the conspiracy theories on job numbers as well.

Your embarassing yourself.

[Kaylore]

Reaching? It's true that the unemployment numbers for a large state were completely left off the report. That's a fact confirmed by the labor department. To Obama's credit, they weren't promoting the new report knowing this was a skewed number, but the timing of the report with that egregious of an error is highly suspicious.

Jetmeck, you really need to lighten up.

[lonestar]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Reaching? It's true that the unemployment numbers for a large state were completely left off the report. That's a fact confirmed by the labor department. To Obama's credit, they weren't promoting the new report knowing this was a skewed number, but the timing of the report with that egregious of an error is highly suspicious.

Jetmeck, you really need to lighten up.

a really decent poster in football, but way out of control in this forum..

as for your timing comment other than the far left wing who seem to be clueless it is beyond suspicious..