Three New Likely Voter Polls

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

I didn't bother watching the debate, but whatever Romney did, he sure gained a lot of momentum. It's like watching someone convert on a third and fifteen in the final 5 minutes of the game.

It's like letting Danny Woodhead go for 19 on 3rd and 17...

[Rohirrim]

For the average American, maybe it should all just come down to, "Haven't the rich got enough?"

What did Senator Welch say to McCarthy at the end of the Army-McCarthy hearings? "You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"

[razorwire77]

Originally Posted by Kid A

It's like letting Danny Woodhead go for 19 on 3rd and 17...

When it's all said and done, I think it's more like Romney getting 16 yards on 3rd and 18. Enough to put a serious scare into the defense, but not enough to convert. We'll see though, if Obama brings the same combination of meekness and piss poor body language to debate # 2, all bets are off. Seriously doubt that happens though, and Obama has huge ground game and canvasing advantages in the swing states (as do most incumbents.)

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers


Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup’s tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup’s most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president’s direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.



Similarly, Gallup’s 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.

Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but it’s consistent with the movement in Rasmussen’s tracker, Obama’s strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussen’s Sunday polls, and PPP’s tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, there’s a chance that Romney’s impressive bounce might prove short-lived.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by L.A. BRONCOS FAN

Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers


Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup’s tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup’s most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president’s direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.



Similarly, Gallup’s 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.

Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but it’s consistent with the movement in Rasmussen’s tracker, Obama’s strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussen’s Sunday polls, and PPP’s tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, there’s a chance that Romney’s impressive bounce might prove short-lived.

Leads in LV's and Gallup changed their minority makeup in order to get Obama above 50% approval. I like how they are changing the make up of their polls to please Obama Campaign.

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Leads in LV's and Gallup changed their minority makeup in order to get Obama above 50% approval. I like how they are changing the make up of their polls to please Obama Campaign.

I love it. You dopes are so predictable. If the polling favors Romney, it's gospel. If it's favorable to the President, it's a liberal conspiracy.

Do you realize that Gallup is a for profit organization? They're a consulting firm. They're paid to do this stuff. That means it's in their best interests to provide accurate polling. It would be bad business to produce polls that prove inaccurate.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by BroncoInferno

I love it. You dopes are so predictable. If the polling favors Romney, it's gospel. If it's favorable to the President, it's a liberal conspiracy.

Do you realize that Gallup is a for profit organization? They're a consulting firm. They're paid to do this stuff. That means it's in their best interests to provide accurate polling. It would be bad business to produce polls that prove inaccurate.

So what?

The fact is they did change their methodology. As early as Oct 1 they changed it.

Fact is he (Romney) is still up with LV's. RV's is crap.

[The Lone Bolt]

I'm not surprised. I said earlier that once the shine wears off on Slick Willard's con job people will go back to Obama.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by BroncoInferno

I love it. You dopes are so predictable. If the polling favors Romney, it's gospel. If it's favorable to the President, it's a liberal conspiracy.

Just like the BLS and jobs numbers.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

[Requiem]

[barryr]

Originally Posted by The Lone Bolt

I'm not surprised. I said earlier that once the shine wears off on Slick Willard's con job people will go back to Obama.

Yeah, Obama knows the truth What is the story we get next week about Libya?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by barryr

What is the next story will we get next week about Libya?

Knowing you, it will be a story you get from breitbart.com.

[DBruleU]

Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...obama/1634791/



3:20PM EDT October 15. 2012 - WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

This morning, Obama is back to a 1.3-point lead, 48.5-47.2.

But what's more, most of the States That Matter never looked as bleak as the national polling did. PPP's national numbers will be the most pessimistic for Obama this week, by far. Yet their Ohio poll, conducted over pretty much the same time frame, gave Obama a 51-46 lead—compared to a 49-45 lead before the debate. NBC/Marist gave Obama a 51-45 Ohio lead, while CNN a 51-47 lead. Including all the crap GOP baby Rasmussens, Obama still leads the state 48.4-45.5.

Indeed, Ohio is symptomatic of the Midwest, where Romney has been unable to claw his way back into serious contention in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Without those four states, Romney has to run the board on every other remaining battleground to win—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. Narrow Romney leads in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia won't be enough.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Florida Dems rocking the absentee vote: Republicans "nervous", "not good news"

In 2008, half of all Floridians voted early or by absentee ballot, and Obama beat McCain by about 200,000 total votes. And "4.3 million people cast votes during early voting and absentee balloting; Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 360,000 among those voters" (link). Those 360K votes were thanks to our huge advantage in early voting more than offsetting Republican's advantage in absentee ballots. This year, early GOTV can again make the difference. “It’s not good news for Republicans,” said Brad Gomez, a political science professor at Florida State University in Tallahassee, who studies voter turnout.

[snip]
The Obama campaign has 102 offices, up from 58 in Florida four years ago, and has registered about 320,000 new voters, up from about 200,000 in 2008

[snip]
Republicans have signed up about 49,000 new voters in Florida, state data show, and have 47 offices for the presidential campaign

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

[DBruleU]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/el...ma-romney.aspx

First post 2nd debate poll from Gallup.

Romney up 52-46. 1 point higher than yesterday.

[barryr]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/el...ma-romney.aspx

First post 2nd debate poll from Gallup.

Romney up 52-46. 1 point higher than yesterday.

The more people hear Obama talk and have to explain himself, unlike what he had to do in 2008, the less people like him. The liberal media is trying its best to help him, but it only works for those who were going to vote for Obama no matter what.

[DBruleU]

Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UICAIYYUQto

If this is true, then Obama in bigger trouble than anyone could have imagined.

[barryr]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UICAIYYUQto

If this is true, then Obama in bigger trouble than anyone could have imagined.

Hopefully, more and more people are finally seeing the light about this guy. He basically got a free pass from 2007-2011 and into early 2012. Without the internet, Obama would be winning easily since the bad news happening in this country would have been silented and not reported. So, thanks Al Gore

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Latest Presidential Polls: Obama Holds Insurmountable Lead in the Electoral College



Despite the best efforts of Mitt Romney's campaign to close the gap, it may be impossible for the Republican challenger to overcome what has become a numbers game in the Electoral College. Understanding how the Electoral College works, particularly in light of conflicting daily polling results, is a task that is even more daunting than predicting the election itself. With 17 days until the election, the combination of confusing polling data and the memory of Obama’s margin of victory in swing states in 2008, make it very difficult to bet on a Republican candidate. The deck just seems stacked.

Let’s start by looking at a swing state that is not in play. Michigan, a state in which Romney would have undoubtedly liked to mount a serious challenge, was abandoned by the McCain campaign in 2008. The Obama campaign has deftly pushed the perception that its administration has saved the auto industry in Detroit. Given that in the latest Rasmussen Poll has Romney trailing by 7 points, even the most adamant Romney supporter would have a hard time arguing the campaign is really competing in the state.

Looking at the broader picture, Real Clear Politics currently puts 10 swing states in play for the 2012 Presidential Election. Excluding Michigan, the states (in order of electoral size) are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada, (6), Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4).

273towin.com is a very useful site that shows electoral maps for all U.S. Presidential elections, as well as providing an interactive map that predicts the electoral college for the 2012 election. If the October 15 polls become a reality in the forty non-swing states, Obama holds a 217 to 191 edge over Romney in the Electoral College, thus leaving 130 electoral votes from the remaining ten swing states up for grabs.

273towin.com also has the latest polling for then ten swing states listed above. If the election were held today, and those polling numbers became a reality, President Obama would defeat Mitt Romney 270 to 268 in what would be the closest presidential election ever. Even with the ever-changing polls, the intricacies of the Electoral College, and the unpredictability of elections in the United States, where is Mitt Romney going to get the votes necessary to drastically change the outcome of this electoral map?

Lets start in Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. While the Republicans have been quick to point Ryan’s congressional record, as well as the re-election of Scott Walker after a recall, the state has not voted for a Republican in the general election since Ronald Reagan won his first term in 1984. In the 2008 election, Obama had a 13.91% margin of victory, winning the state by 412,293 votes. Combine this number with the fact that Obama is up 4 points in the latest American Research Group Poll

(270towin.com), and the Romney campaign might have to look elsewhere for those ten electoral votes.

The hottest state in which the Obama camp seems to be losing ground is Pennsylvania. Forget the fact that the state hasn’t voted for a Republican to take the oval office since 1988, or the fact that Romney is trailing Obama by roughly four points according to The Morning Call Muhlenberg. In 2008 Obama’s margin of victory was 10.4%. With the number of Democrats in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, that margin of victory was 405,820 in actual votes.

While Republicans have cited possible voter fraud in the state of Pennsylvania, studies have proven that there is no credible evidence that upholds the idea that conclusive voter fraud cases have affected recent election results in the state. The new voter registration laws upheld in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court will make it difficult for some citizens to register to vote, and will help to decrease Obama’s stronghold over the state. Yet, it is still unlikely to definitively swing the state in Romney’s favor.

While pundits waste their time talking about how no Republican has won the White House without Ohio, this election’s most important state is easily Florida. According to the latest Public Policy Poll, Romney holds a one-point edge in the state. While Obama only won the state by a mere 2.5% margin, the Romney camp faces two critical issues in the state.

First, according to the latest ImpreMedia & Latino Decisions Poll, 67% of Latino voters are fairly certain they will vote for Obama. That number compares to only 23% of Latinos who are fairly certain they will vote for Romney.

According to the U.S. Census, in 2011, nearly 23% of the population of Florida is of Hispanic or Latino origin. If the national trend translates over to the state level, coupled with the fact that 16.5% of the population in Florida is African-American, then you could estimate nearly 31.4% of the population are highly likely to vote for Obama (assuming they vote).

Paul Ryan’s Catholicism should bring back some independent Hispanics back into the fold, but his threatening views on Medicare create a second problem. According to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, Florida has 4,720,799 people between the ages of 45 and 64. Medicare is clearly a cause for concern among these voters.

According to The Sun-Sentinel “Florida's fast-growing Medicaid program — which cares for the state's impoverished children and for most senior citizens in nursing homes — would lose roughly a third of its federal money under budget plans embraced by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan.” If Romney is polling less favorably with Hispanics than John McCain (who also lost Florida), and his vice president is driving away arguably the state’s most important voting block, where does his campaign hope to make up ground?

Romney also needs to close the 11% gap (Gallup polling) that Obama held over McCain in winning independent voters. Given the state of the economy, the Obama administration’s handling of Libya, and Obama’s performance in the first debate, the Romney campaign has swiftly seized the opportunity to reduce the overall seven point lead Obama held in most polls as late as the month of July.

In 2004, Democratic challenger John Kerry missed out on the Presidency by losing the state of Ohio. For Kerry to prevail in that election, he would have only needed twenty states plus the District of Columbia to do so.
For Romney, the ideal Republican victory map would have him winning a whopping seven of the ten swing states, with Obama holding onto just Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. That means, that counting the last election, Romney would need to win back those seven states plus Indiana (which went for Obama in 2008), thus marking more than a one hundred point swing in the electoral college.

It is clear that Romney’s campaign, for numerous reasons, has gained ground in this election season. It is equally transparent that the Obama campaign is a shadow of a 2008 campaign that was supposed to be a paradigm for future presidential campaigns. Will this combination of factors be enough?

The blame for Romney’s plight extends further back than just the previous Republican administration. The electoral strategy of cementing the socially conservative southern and mid-western base voters is not a new concept. That idea was started by Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaigns and further solidified by both Bushes and John McCain. While successful in the short term, the strategy will limit this Republican candidate’s ability to win this election.

Couple the Republican’s limited strategy with Obama’s electoral domination in 2008, which increased the number of target states (North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Indiana) for the Democrats, and you are left with a Republican campaign that is exponentially more challenging.

Is it possible, that voter turnout (a number that has gone up at least fifteen million votes since 2000) could negatively affect Obama? Is it also possible that economic hardships knock out Obama just as they did with the re-election campaigns of Presidents’ Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush? Is it possible that thousands of independent voters in ten very different swing states see Mitt Romney as the moderate who was Governor of Massachusetts, rather that the right wing-pleasing Republican that has muddled his message? The answer to all of these questions is, yes, it is possible.

Yet, given the state of the electoral map, the current volume of polls, the remaining political issues facing his campaign, and the path that was forced on him since the Reagan era, it is difficult to imagine a Romney victory. The fact is, in this election, the results are not about what is fair, possible, or even right, but rather what the numbers gap says is almost certain.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/16...ctoral-college

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UICAIYYUQto

If this is true, then Obama in bigger trouble than anyone could have imagined.

RCP poll average has Obama up +5 in that state. It was at 4.7% yesterday. Also up +5 in Michigan. And Ohio still Obama at 2.4%. Electoral college still looking bad for Romney.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by barryr

The more people hear Obama talk and have to explain himself, unlike what he had to do in 2008, the less people like him. The liberal media is trying its best to help him, but it only works for those who were going to vote for Obama no matter what.

I usually just roll my eyes and chuckle at the stupidity and ignorance of your posts but for some reason felt compelled to respond to this particularly idiotic crap.

On your first point, Obama was very well spoken in this second debate. If anyone had trouble "explaining himself" in this debate it certainly wasn't the president.

On your second point, the "liberal media" declared Romney the winner of the first debate. So now that the same media has given Obama the nod in the second debate they're "helping" him?

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by TonyR

On your second point, the "liberal media" declared Romney the winner of the first debate. So now that the same media has given Obama the nod in the second debate they're "helping" him?

It's the same thing with these guys saying Crowley was helping Obama out by fact-checking Romney on the "terror" quote. First of all, she wouldn't have spoken up at all had Romney not broken the rules he agreed to by trying to ask Obama direct questions in a "gotcha" attempt that backfired. Second, they ignore that the fact that she IMMEDIATELY qualified her statement by saying that Romney was correct that the youtube video received the brunt of the blame for the following two weeks. Sounds pretty even handed to me, but of course if the other side scores a point it must be the result of some vast conspiracy. They're no better than Gaffney.