University of Colorado analysis predicts Romney win in presidential race - Page 4 - The Orange Mane

Arkie · 08-25-2012, 01:29 PM

I think it's cool to have a black President. I admire Obama for being the first to overcome that barrier. I see that as a positive. I'm just disappointed he's as dishonest and corrupt as our former white Presidents.

Jetmeck · 08-25-2012, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pricejj

Lulz. Nothing that Obama or the Socialists have done for the past 4 years is good for the country.

I guess you long for the Bush years since were so good to everyone..............I am so sorry you are so clueless to the fact Obama was handed the largest cluster**** in history to clean up.

I AM SO SORY HE HASN'T CLEANED UP YOUR PARTY'S MESS QUICK ENOUGH TO MAKE YOU HAPPY, I AM SO SORRY HE WISHES TO SPEND SOME MONEY CLEANING UP AFTER BUSH'S DISASTER AND SOME MORE MONEY ON THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY INSTEAD OF WARS AND ETC.

REPUBLICANS GIVE TAX BREAKS TO THE WEALTHY WHILE ****ING EVERYONE ELSE AT THE SAME TIME.

REPUBLICANS ENERGY POLICY IS DRILL, DRILL, DRILL AND RELAX REGULATIONS ON SAME INDUSTRY. REMOVE ENERY CREDITS TO GREEN ENERGY WHICH IS THE FUTURE FOR TWO REASONS, THERE ISN'T THAT MUCH OIL LEFT AND IT POLLUTES THE ENVIRONMENT BUT LEAVE IN PLACE 25 BILLION FOR OIL COMPANIES OVER NEXT Ten YEARS.

THE ABOVE IS ROMNEY'S ENERGY POLICY, IT'S THAT SIMPLE.

YOUR A CLUELESS CLOWN TO DEFEND ANY OF THIS..........

Jetmeck · 08-25-2012, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arkie

I think it's cool to have a black President. I admire Obama for being the first to overcome that barrier. I see that as a positive. I'm just disappointed he's as dishonest and corrupt as our former white Presidents.

YOU BASE THESE comments on what exactly ?

Jetmeck · 08-25-2012, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W*GS

Obama can't fix in four what it took your boy Bush to **** up in eight, especially facing a Republican insurgency, the sole purpose of which is to get that black man out of the White House.

Your GOP has put party before country, and that's why things are so messed up right now. When you gonna unwrap Norquist's hands from around your balls?

PS - Bush pissed away trillions on two wars. You never complained about that, boy.

Big balls it takes to stand up and cry about obama presidency when your own party created a **** storm and then have dragged their feet at every opportunity to make things better...............two faced a-holes.

Arkie · 08-25-2012, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

YOU BASE THESE comments on what exactly ?

It's in response to W*gs playing the race card.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 08-25-2012, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

I guess you long for the Bush years since were so good to everyone..............I am so sorry you are so clueless to the fact Obama was handed the largest cluster**** in history to clean up.

I AM SO SORY HE HASN'T CLEANED UP YOUR PARTY'S MESS QUICK ENOUGH TO MAKE YOU HAPPY, I AM SO SORRY HE WISJES TO SPEND SOME MONEY CLEANING UP AFTER BUSH'S DISASTER AND SOME MORE MONEY ON THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY INSTEAD OF WARS AND ETC.

REPUBLICANS GIVE TAX BREAKS TO THE WEALTHY WHILE ****ING EVERYONE ELSE AT THE SAME TIME.

REPUBLICANS ENERGY POLICY IS DRILL, DRILL, DRILL AND RELAX REGULATIONS ON SAME INDUSTRY. REMOVE ENERY CREDITS TO GREEN ENERGY WHICH IS THE FUTURE FOR TWO REASONS, THERE ISN'T THAT MUCH OIL LEFT AND IT POLLUTES THE ENVIRONMENT BUT LEAVE IN PLACE 25 BILLION FOR OIL COMPANIES OVER NEXT TWO YEARS.

THE ABOVE IS ROMNEY'S ENERGY POLICY, IT'S THAT SIMPLE.

YOUR A CLUELESS CLOWN TO DEFEND ANY OF THIS..........

This.

These same two-faced, forked-tongued right-wing jackals who are piling on Obama defended every move Chimpy McFlightsuit made during the eight years when Bush and the GOP were running the country into the ground.

DBruleU · 10-07-2012, 07:04 PM

Take it for what it's worth.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/release...win-university

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.”

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.

In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.

The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.

“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 10-07-2012, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Take it for what it's worth.
.

The only folks who really believe it's worth anything...

El Minion · 11-07-2012, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

http://www.examiner.com/article/univ...sidential-race

A state-by-state analysis of the presidential race conducted by two University of Colorado professors predicts that Mitt Romney will be our next president. The analysis, released today, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, is based on economic and other factors within each of the 50 states. This same study has correctly predicted the winners of the last eight presidential elections, starting with the 1980 election won by Ronald Reagan.

The analysis is summarized as follows, “President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.”

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 11-08-2012, 02:40 AM

L0L!

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08-25-2012, 01:29 PM	#76
Arkie Ring of Famer Gggggrrrrrr rrrraaaahhh Arrrrhhhn. Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 9,129 Adopt-a-Bronco: Quinton Carter	I think it's cool to have a black President. I admire Obama for being the first to overcome that barrier. I see that as a positive. I'm just disappointed he's as dishonest and corrupt as our former white Presidents.

10-07-2012, 07:04 PM	#82
DBruleU Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Boulder, the bastion of communism. Posts: 3,663	Take it for what it's worth. http://www.colorado.edu/news/release...win-university Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. “We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.” While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up. The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election. Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada. In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered. While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.” The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College. In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income. Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately. In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors. The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.

11-08-2012, 02:40 AM	#85
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,697	L0L!