Unemployment drops to 7.8%.....uh oh

[DBruleU]

http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably...2/10/jobs.html

Yeah, this doesn't smell right. The household survey (the part used to calculate the unemployment rate, not official payroll growth, which comes from the establishment survey) shows a whopping 873,000 jobs added in September (seasonally adjusted).

How whopping? It's the best month of the millennium to date.

In fact, it's the best month since 1983 (excluding Januarys, which usually show crazy numbers, due to annual revisions, which is why they're removed from the chart).

That's just not remotely plausible. In the last 29 years, we've had 22 quarters of growth exceeding 5%. And never did the household job creation rate hit the ostensible peak we just experienced, with growth hovering in the 1-2% range.

We've either got a massively massaged seasonal adjustment in place, a drastic change in household survey methodology, or the number is real, the economy is booming, and ADP undercounted by 700,000.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by Smiling Assassin27

Interestingly, Obama has been telling us for 40 months not to put stock in one little jobs report. Listen to your messianic overlord, people!

No one is putting stock in one little jobs report.

The trend is stronger job growth month on month though, with powerful upward revisions on each month as well. Those are positive signs and are corroborated by the spikes in POTUS job approval and consumer confidence we've been seeing over the last couple months. Its a multitude of long term trends where this is icing on the cake and the dip to 7.8% is just the result of several strong months finally getting accurately compiled and catching up with the UE average.

Its like polling. No one should put a ton of weight into any single poll. But when you see three weeks of polls from various sources showing a growing lead to a varying degree for one side it is evidence towards a real shift. Hence why the right wing "polls are a conspiracy!" meme is such a joke when it comes to a state like Ohio where multiple polls have consistently shown a legitimate gap being created and widening.

[Drek]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably...2/10/jobs.html

Yeah, this doesn't smell right. The household survey (the part used to calculate the unemployment rate, not official payroll growth, which comes from the establishment survey) shows a whopping 873,000 jobs added in September (seasonally adjusted).

How whopping? It's the best month of the millennium to date.

In fact, it's the best month since 1983 (excluding Januarys, which usually show crazy numbers, due to annual revisions, which is why they're removed from the chart).

That's just not remotely plausible. In the last 29 years, we've had 22 quarters of growth exceeding 5%. And never did the household job creation rate hit the ostensible peak we just experienced, with growth hovering in the 1-2% range.

We've either got a massively massaged seasonal adjustment in place, a drastic change in household survey methodology, or the number is real, the economy is booming, and ADP undercounted by 700,000.

So a right wing news source doesn't get seasonal adjustments and is just assuming that there was a 700,000 job scam being done to get UE under 8.0%.

Sounds legitimate.

Maybe he should have factored in the 86,000 seasonally adjusted gains from July and August that were miscounted as well, on the low side. Does he not understand the multiplicative powers of a seasonal adjustment? Or does he just completely not get stats at all?

I'm going with the last one, FYI.

[Smiling Assassin27]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably...2/10/jobs.html

Yeah, this doesn't smell right. The household survey (the part used to calculate the unemployment rate, not official payroll growth, which comes from the establishment survey) shows a whopping 873,000 jobs added in September (seasonally adjusted).

How whopping? It's the best month of the millennium to date.

In fact, it's the best month since 1983 (excluding Januarys, which usually show crazy numbers, due to annual revisions, which is why they're removed from the chart).

That's just not remotely plausible. In the last 29 years, we've had 22 quarters of growth exceeding 5%. And never did the household job creation rate hit the ostensible peak we just experienced, with growth hovering in the 1-2% range.

We've either got a massively massaged seasonal adjustment in place, a drastic change in household survey methodology, or the number is real, the economy is booming, and ADP undercounted by 700,000.

Actual economists agree that it's implausible. Getcha popcorn ready:

This report is a tale of two labor markets. The establishment survey (payrolls) painted a picture of moderately growing employment over the last three months but at a marginally slower pace than over the last year. At this pace of job creation, the unemployment rate should be barely drifting lower given underlying demographic trends. In contrast, the household survey painted a picture of a sharply falling unemployment rate—down 1.2% points over the last 12 months. Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%). We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility). Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline. With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...gress-on-jobs/

[Requiem]

Usual suspects, grasping at the same straws as always!

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by Requiem

Usual suspects, grasping at the same straws as always!

Yep. Even the right-wing Wall Street Journal blog SmilingAss linked admitted this:

With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.

[nyuk nyuk]

So let's see. Unemployment still isn't as low as it was when Bush left office and the economy is partly why the GOP was not elected (incumbents in Presidential elections have been voted out of office during recessions since at least the early 1900s). So apparently now that we're finally heading to what we were told were "dismal" unemployment levels during the Bush tenure, Obama is to get the credit, and not Bush the blame.

Bush's dismal is Obama's good. This is doubleplusgood.

[Mecklomaniac]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I wonder where the number would be if the Republicans in Congress didn't block Obama's Jobs bill?

who knows.. 9%??


Hooray for all the new McJobs.

[Smiling Assassin27]

Interestingly, Obama said that passing the stimulus bill would keep us under 8% and we'd be at about 5.6% right now. Sadly, those darn Republicans blocked it, er, wait...

[Kaylore]

The numbers aren't as pretty as they look though. A lot of it is people who couldn't find work getting part time jobs.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

The largest drop in EU rate in 29 years? While we added only 114k jobs? Less than previous months? Yeah, that seems normal. And like every other month, the #'s will once again be revised upwards. These numbers don't even add up. We have sluggish job creation and a downward revision of GDP.

If labor force participation were the same today as it was when Obama took office, we'd be at 10% UE.

Reading through these threads here it's clear how throughout history corrupt governments took control of their people....they sold so much BS and their people never knew what was ACTUALLY going on behind phony "facts."

Actually, Business Weekly reported better performance in the service sector of the economy this week, which is probably where some of these numbers come from.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Meck77

Say whatever makes you feel good fellas. The fiscal cliff approaches.....It's going to be nasty.

Only if the Republicans elect to drive the country into a depression rather than compromise.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Drek

Jobs numbers for the previous month ALWAYS come out the first Friday of the following month.

Do you even follow how our government works or do you just turn on Rush/Beck/Hannity/etc. to get your marching orders and ignore everything else?

Like Ron White says: You can't fix stupid.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Smiling Assassin27

Actual economists agree that it's implausible. Getcha popcorn ready:



http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...gress-on-jobs/

Key phrase in this Rupert Murdoch report, "We believe..."

[Kaylore]

The real story is Dems "cheering" a 7.8% unemployment rate. October always sees part time hires for before the Christmas rush.

[Smiling Assassin27]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

The real story is Dems "cheering" a 7.8% unemployment rate. October always sees part time hires for before the Christmas rush.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate for government workers plummeted.

[Arkie]

The workforce is 58% of the population. Many people dropped out of the workforce. The unemployment rate doesn't include them.

[barryr]

Yeah, despite a record number of people on food stamps and disability, more people got hired for a couple months to wrap Christmas(oh wait, can't call it that) gifts, so re-elect Obama folks, he's got that economy thing really smoking. Oh, the desperation.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by nyuk nyuk

So let's see. Unemployment still isn't as low as it was when Bush left office...

Which direction was it going when Bush left office? Which direction is it going now?

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

The real story is Dems "cheering" a 7.8% unemployment rate.

Is this story more "real" than the one about righties cheering because Mitt finally showed a little bit of competence and "won" a debate? All the crowing about this debate, when there are two left and Obama's predicted electoral college lead is still dauntingly large, shows more than a little bit of desperation don't you think?

[Requiem]

Originally Posted by Arkie

The workforce is 58% of the population. Many people dropped out of the workforce. The unemployment rate doesn't include them.

A lot of people also retired and we have an aging population where a majority of seniors don't work.

[Rohirrim]

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Kaylore

October always sees part time hires for before the Christmas rush.

Fyi, this report is not October data.

The truly upbeat part came in the data revisions. As it turns out, those lackluster months of July and August were better than we thought. The agency now says that the U.S. economy added 181,000 jobs in July, rather than 141,000. And it says that the economy added 142,000 jobs in August, rather than a mere 96,000 as initially reported. To be clear, this is still a middling recovery. At this pace, it will take more than a decade to return to full employment. But at least the economy wasn’t slowing down dramatically over the summer, as originally reported.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...rss_ezra-klein

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by Smiling Assassin27

Interestingly, the unemployment rate for government workers plummeted.

Just once you should try looking at information from outside the cocoon. The real world can be scary, which is why you insulate yourself and come up with facile ways to assign blame, but you should really give it a try.

[T]he gains were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, and finance. Manufacturing employment dropped, which corroborates weakness in factory activity that may reflect the slowing global economy and worries about a recession if politicians don't move the year-end "fiscal cliff."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...ort?fsrc=gn_ep

[BroncoInferno]

Once again, facts confound the right-wingers.