Three New Likely Voter Polls

[Kid A]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Concerning the disparity in polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

What I don't really understand is why Obama tends to poll higher in systems that use a live person to conduct the questioning rather than an automated "robo-call." I don't see why the results should be any different. Anyone care to share any insight on that?

My understanding was that the live person questioning went in hand with the cellphone polls, as they can't call your cell unless you've agreed in person, so all the cellphone polling was part of in-person polling as well? Could be wrong about what that meant, though.

[TonyR]

Originally Posted by pricejj

The media has done their best to make Romney sound like a dirty word. We'll see what happens in the voter booth.

Yes, it's all the media's fault...

[Mr.Meanie]

Originally Posted by TonyR

Yes, it's all the media's fault...

I think he meant cameras and microphones...

[TonyR]

That question divides likely voters almost exactly in thirds: in the poll, 31 percent say they are better off than four years ago, while 34 percent say they are worse off and 34 percent say they are about the same. Romney, predictably, wins more than four-fifths of voters who say they are worse off; the president, equally unsurprisingly, attracts almost nine in 10 of those who consider themselves better off.

Crucially, though, Obama holds a commanding 57 percent to 34 percent advantage among those who say their finances are unchanged. One reason for that critical tilt in his direction: Voters who say their finances are unchanged also say, by a resounding 53 percent to 33 percent margin, that they believe the country has been better off over these past four years because Obama, rather than another candidate, won in 2008. Overall, 48 percent say they believe the country is better off because Obama won in 2008, while 41 percent say the nation would be in a stronger position today if another candidate had won.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...rcent-20120921

[Jetmeck]

Originally Posted by barryr

Yes, Obama's economy and foreign policies are a big hit to the public.

You are an IDIOT...................he saved the economy from becoming another great depression and is getting us out of two wars.

Both things your party created.

[Jetmeck]

Originally Posted by pricejj

The media has done their best to make Romney sound like a dirty word.

I don't know how you or Romney will ever recover from your stupidity.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

You are an IDIOT...................he saved the economy from becoming another great depression and is getting us out of two wars.

Both things your party created.

Yep.

Dinglebarry is just another right-wing bullsh*t artist peddling the same "argument" Clinton exposed in his DNC speech, i.e., "we left him (Obama) a huge mess - he hasn't cleaned it up fast enough, so fire him and put us back in."

Unfortunately for Dinglebarry and his party, there just aren't enough voters who are stupid enough to actually believe that bullsh*t.

[Mecklomaniac]

http://triblive.com

PA. Obama 47 -- Romney 45

[BroncoInferno]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

I've wondered the same thing. I sometimes think people just say Obama when asked the question by a live person by reason of just feeling like that's who they should say. When asked by a robocall...no pressure to say one or the other.

Robocalls can't be made to cellphones. A lot of younger people don't even bother with land-lines anymore (I don't have one, nor can I think of any friends off of the top of my head who do), so the robocalls disproportionately go to old people, which is a more favorable demographic for the GOP.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by Mecklomaniac

http://triblive.com

PA. Obama 47 -- Romney 45

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by Mecklomaniac

http://triblive.com

PA. Obama 47 -- Romney 45

Let's take a look at the whole picture, shall we? These are the major polls conducted in the last 30 days:

Mercyhurst Obama 48 Romney 40
SPR Obama 47 Romney 45
Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39
YouGov Obama 51 Romney 42
We Ask America Obama 48 Romney 42
MCM Obama 50 Romney 41
Inquirer PA Obama 50 Romney 39

http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/

Even Rasmussen and their flawed Republican-sympathizing polling methods have Obama up 12 points in PA.

[barryr]

This is what the Obama supporters want. To call the election over so anyone not voting for Obama stays home and doesn't vote. Basically the same as what they claim the huge number of minorities with no ID can't vote. Just saw someone today who didn't have an ID. Of course, turns out the guy has multiple DWI's and had his driver's license taken away, so the liberals are still worrying about felons getting to vote.

[barryr]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Let's take a look at the whole picture, shall we? These are the major polls conducted in the last 30 days:

Mercyhurst Obama 48 Romney 40
SPR Obama 47 Romney 45
Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39
YouGov Obama 51 Romney 42
We Ask America Obama 48 Romney 42
MCM Obama 50 Romney 41
Inquirer PA Obama 50 Romney 39

http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/

Even Rasmussen and their flawed Republican-sympathizing polling methods have Obama up 12 points in PA.

So it's flawed when it says what you don't like, but ok when it agrees with your thinking. Typical liberal.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Let's take a look at the whole picture, shall we? These are the major polls conducted in the last 30 days:

Mercyhurst Obama 48 Romney 40
SPR Obama 47 Romney 45
Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39
YouGov Obama 51 Romney 42
We Ask America Obama 48 Romney 42
MCM Obama 50 Romney 41
Inquirer PA Obama 50 Romney 39

http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/

Even Rasmussen and their flawed Republican-sympathizing polling methods have Obama up 12 points in PA.

Mercyhurst is apparently showing a D+10 turnout model. I think we can accept as a given that whatever shows up on election day will be somewhere below D+7 (2008 turnout- Democrat recent high in last several cycles), and prolly around the norm of D+3.

I wish we could get state by state polling using a D+3 model. Most of what we're seeing now is at or even above 2008 levels...not realistic.

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

Mercyhurst is apparently showing a D+10 turnout model. I think we can accept as a given that whatever shows up on election day will be somewhere below D+7 (2008 turnout- Democrat recent high in last several cycles), and prolly around the norm of D+3.

I wish we could get state by state polling using a D+3 model. Most of what we're seeing now is at or even above 2008 levels...not realistic.

SoCal, where are you getting the D +10 number? I'm not seeing it in the methodology of the Mercyhurst study. As a general rule, I've always understood polling to count a higher turnout for Republicans (given the usual class reasons).

Alternative, Nate Silver, looks at the disparity in polls using cellphones and ones not (and how the former favor Obama). http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by barryr

This is what the Obama supporters want. To call the election over so anyone not voting for Obama stays home and doesn't vote. Basically the same as what they claim the huge number of minorities with no ID can't vote. Just saw someone today who didn't have an ID. Of course, turns out the guy has multiple DWI's and had his driver's license taken away, so the liberals are still worrying about felons getting to vote.

Jesus, the exact opposite could easily happen. Obama supporters think he has in the bag, so they stay home. There's no evidence of either theory...

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

SoCal, where are you getting the D +10 number? I'm not seeing it in the methodology of the Mercyhurst study. As a general rule, I've always understood polling to count a higher turnout for Republicans (given the usual class reasons).

Alternative, Nate Silver, looks at the disparity in polls using cellphones and ones not (and how the former favor Obama). http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...st_PA_0924.pdf

Look at Question 36 in the polling. D+10 is just dumb. Only 4% are Independents....really?

[barryr]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

Jesus, the exact opposite could easily happen. Obama supporters think he has in the bag, so they stay home. There's no evidence of either theory...

Not really since liberals are nuts and know most don't see things their way so they have to vote and get whatever bogus votes they can to get their destructive agendas passed.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by barryr

Not really since liberals are nuts and know most don't see things their way so they have to vote and get whatever bogus votes they can to get their destructive agendas passed.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiight - all those voters who gave Obama a landslide victory in '08 were "liberal nuts."

Whatever gets you through the night, Kool-Aid Boy.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

That margin if victory is widening faster than Ann Coulter's legs at Nazi-Con 2012...

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/r...164727716.html

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...st_PA_0924.pdf

Look at Question 36 in the polling. D+10 is just dumb. Only 4% are Independents....really?

I'm pretty sure most polling adjusts their pool to fit their model of likely voters in spite of whomever they interview.

Here's an article from Pew on their methodology for party affiliation (from July): http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/...lection-polls/

I guess they don't take in account party affiliation when extrapolating, but they do note that about 8% more of the national population identifies as Democrats. And that might be higher in Penn. So a D +10 isn't all that dumb.

I also imagine that as elections become eminent independents identify with the party with whom their presidential choice resides.

All this said, if you're trying to dig through the numbers and find a silver lining for Romney's chances, I think that's pretty fruitless and wishful.

Nate Silver's 538 methodology can be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
It's interesting stuff; if you're curious.

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by barryr

Not really since liberals are nuts and know most don't see things their way so they have to vote and get whatever bogus votes they can to get their destructive agendas passed.

Why can't you respect other people's point of views? I think being conservative is perfectly reasonable, nothing nuts about it. What people refer to as the tea-party, however, doesn't seem conservative at all, and is totally ideological based.

Liberals tend to be secular and educated; while you may disagree with them, they aren't crazy. Show some class, dude.

[SoCalBronco]

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

I'm pretty sure most polling adjusts their pool to fit their model of likely voters in spite of whomever they interview.

Here's an article from Pew on their methodology for party affiliation (from July): http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/...lection-polls/

I guess they don't take in account party affiliation when extrapolating, but they do note that about 8% more of the national population identifies as Democrats. And that might be higher in Penn. So a D +10 isn't all that dumb.

I also imagine that as elections become eminent independents identify with the party with whom their presidential choice resides.

All this said, if you're trying to dig through the numbers and find a silver lining for Romney's chances, I think that's pretty fruitless and wishful.

I'm not looking for a silver lining...or anything else, just a poll that takes into account historical averages. That 8% more of the public may identify as Democrats is not particular probative of anything. What is important is the historical average turnout, and thats about DEM +3.

In terms of my own voting intentions, right now I'd classify myself as a very slight Romney lean. I agree with Romney-Ryan on what I feel is the most important issue (SS and Medicare reform), although I agree with the administration on probably more issues overall. I could still go either way, or, not vote at all for the top of the ballot.

[Pseudofool]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

I'm not looking for a silver lining...or anything else, just a poll that takes into account historical averages. That 8% more of the public may identify as Democrats is not particular probative of anything. What is important is the historical average turnout, and thats about DEM +3.

Fair enough. But I do think the "likely voter" model (as opposed to just "registered voters") tries to account for that. Unless you think they pre-sample people for polling, which would be odd. They have to get the data first and then decide what to do with it.

In terms of my own voting intentions, right now I'd classify myself as a very slight Romney lean. I agree with Romney-Ryan on what I feel is the most important issue (SS and Medicare reform), although I agree with the administration on probably more issues overall. I could still go either way, or, not vote at all for the top of the ballot.

I'll be curious where you stand after the debates as you seem like a non-ideological conservative.

There's rumbling from the Huff Post that Obama will seek entitlement reforms, despite an outcry from liberals if he wins. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...p_ref=politics

I'm all for entitlement reform (it's a damn necessity), but the voucher idea seems totally bogus (the price of services will out pace the worth of vouchers --which is where the savings come in). My preferred method is to continue to take the profiteering out of healthcare (hospitals and pharmaceuticals, I'm looking at you), but we probably don't agree on that.

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

I'm not looking for a silver lining...or anything else, just a poll that takes into account historical averages. That 8% more of the public may identify as Democrats is not particular probative of anything. What is important is the historical average turnout, and thats about DEM +3.

In terms of my own voting intentions, right now I'd classify myself as a very slight Romney lean. I agree with Romney-Ryan on what I feel is the most important issue (SS and Medicare reform), although I agree with the administration on probably more issues overall. I could still go either way, or, not vote at all for the top of the ballot.

Wow a conservative that actually will admit that he agrees with the administration on a few things? Where is all the hate you're supposed to have for the POTUS?.

Seriously though, I disagree with you on the SS and Medicare stuff, but glad to see that you're open minded, even if you do end up voting for Romney.