Three New Likely Voter Polls

[Mecklomaniac]

New swing state polls

Gallup Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157517/ob...ng-states.aspx

USA Today Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...oll/57803524/1

Rasmussen Romney + 1 Romney 47% Obama 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by Mecklomaniac

New swing state polls

Gallup Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157517/ob...ng-states.aspx

USA Today Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...oll/57803524/1

Rasmussen Romney + 1 Romney 47% Obama 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

Swing state polls are pointless.

They do not take into account the electoral process. If all those swing states were one big state, it would matter, but it doesn't. What matters is the polls in each of those individual states.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Mecklomaniac

New swing state polls

Gallup Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157517/ob...ng-states.aspx

USA Today Obama +2 Obama 48% Romney 46%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...oll/57803524/1

Rasmussen Romney + 1 Romney 47% Obama 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

Uh oh...bounce has all but dissipated.

Also saw a poll today with Ind. showing a huge swing on Obama's FP. Taking a big hit there.

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Uh oh...bounce has all but dissipated.

Also saw a poll today with Ind. showing a huge swing on Obama's FP. Taking a big hit there.

[barryr]

Yes, Obama's economy and foreign policies are a big hit to the public.

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by houghtam

Uh oh.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=285548

The foreign policy approval rating of US President Barack Obama dropped five points following last week's deadly protests throughout the Muslim world against an anti-Islam film, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll.

The poll found that among registered voters, the president's foreign policy approval rating dropped to 49 percent from 54 percent one month earlier. Among Independents, who are likely to play a crucial role in determining the result of the upcoming US election, Obama's foreign policy approval rating dropped dramatically from 53 percent in August to 41 percent.

Across 18 NBC/WSJ polls tracking the issue since 2009, the five-point drop is the second biggest recorded over a one-month period, the largest (7%) coming in June 2011 following a record-high approval bump the previous month attributed to the killing of Osama bin Laden.

The 49 percent approval rating is the second lowest in the 18 polls.

The new poll also pinned Obama’s foreign policy disapproval rate at 46 percent, up from 40 percent last month. It is his highest foreign policy disapproval rate since taking office

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Tuesday’s new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, showing Obama at 50 percent versus Romney’s 45 percent among likely voters...

[houghtam]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Uh oh.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=285548

The foreign policy approval rating of US President Barack Obama dropped five points following last week's deadly protests throughout the Muslim world against an anti-Islam film, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll.

The poll found that among registered voters, the president's foreign policy approval rating dropped to 49 percent from 54 percent one month earlier. Among Independents, who are likely to play a crucial role in determining the result of the upcoming US election, Obama's foreign policy approval rating dropped dramatically from 53 percent in August to 41 percent.

Across 18 NBC/WSJ polls tracking the issue since 2009, the five-point drop is the second biggest recorded over a one-month period, the largest (7%) coming in June 2011 following a record-high approval bump the previous month attributed to the killing of Osama bin Laden.

The 49 percent approval rating is the second lowest in the 18 polls.

The new poll also pinned Obama’s foreign policy disapproval rate at 46 percent, up from 40 percent last month. It is his highest foreign policy disapproval rate since taking office

It. Doesn't. Matter.

Guys...people on both sides. Listen. At this point in the race, no national polls matter. Not registered voters, not likely voters. Not likability, not favorability. Not approval rating, not country is on the right track.

The lines have already been drawn. There are a certain number of states that will go either red or blue no matter what, and there are a few select battleground states. Some say there are 12, but many say there are only nine. Pennsylvania (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/) and Michigan (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Michigan/) are assumed to be blue, and South Carolina is assumed to be red. This gives Obama 237 electoral votes and Romney 191, with 270 needed to win. The remaining states in play are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Now people who listen to swing state polls would have you believe that the gap is very narrow, but anyone who has studied statistics knows that an average doesn't mean anything in an individual winner take all argument, not to mention that it assumes that each state is weighted equally as far as the electorate is concerned.

What you need to pay attention to is the races in each individual state.

NV - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Nevada/
CO - 9 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Colorado/
IA - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Iowa/
WI - 10 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Wisconsin/
OH - 18 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Ohio/
NH - 4 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/New_Hampshire/
VA - 13 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Virginia/
NC - 15 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/North_Carolina/
FL - 29 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Florida/

As you can see, this already gives Obama 273 votes without Ohio or Florida even factored in. In order for Romney to win, he would have to seal Iowa, Florida and Ohio while stealing at least one of those states in which the poll averages (for that individual state) lean heavily toward Obama.

[peacepipe]

Originally Posted by DBruleU

While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%.

Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up.

Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

BTW,pew has obama up by 8:51-43.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...p_ref=politics

[ghwk]

ghwks poll has Obama at 75% to Romneys 25% but admittedly its me asking 3 other guys at work.

It is however just as good an indicator as any other poll right now.

[Kid A]

Interesting look by 538 at the influence of cellphone polling. Not surprisingly, polls that don't factor in the 1/3 of the country without landline (i.e. people who only use cellphones, which happens to be a strongly Democratic demographic) tend to underestimate Democratic candidates.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...3ED#more-34740

It's also looking like the Senate is moving out of reach for the GOP, with 538 giving the GOP only about a 20% chance - or about what the same odds the Dems take the House. All that to say, it looks like we're headed toward maintaing the same alignment in the Senate and House of Reps.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Originally Posted by houghtam

It. Doesn't. Matter.

Guys...people on both sides. Listen. At this point in the race, no national polls matter. Not registered voters, not likely voters. Not likability, not favorability. Not approval rating, not country is on the right track.

The lines have already been drawn. There are a certain number of states that will go either red or blue no matter what, and there are a few select battleground states. Some say there are 12, but many say there are only nine. Pennsylvania (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/) and Michigan (http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Michigan/) are assumed to be blue, and South Carolina is assumed to be red. This gives Obama 237 electoral votes and Romney 191, with 270 needed to win. The remaining states in play are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Now people who listen to swing state polls would have you believe that the gap is very narrow, but anyone who has studied statistics knows that an average doesn't mean anything in an individual winner take all argument, not to mention that it assumes that each state is weighted equally as far as the electorate is concerned.

What you need to pay attention to is the races in each individual state.

NV - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Nevada/
CO - 9 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Colorado/
IA - 6 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Iowa/
WI - 10 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Wisconsin/
OH - 18 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Ohio/
NH - 4 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/New_Hampshire/
VA - 13 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Virginia/
NC - 15 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/North_Carolina/
FL - 29 electoral votes - http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Florida/

As you can see, this already gives Obama 273 votes without Ohio or Florida even factored in. In order for Romney to win, he would have to seal Iowa, Florida and Ohio while stealing at least one of those states in which the poll averages (for that individual state) lean heavily toward Obama.

You just b*tch slapped DBruleU, barryr, lonestar and the rest of the cast of "Fantasy Island" off the face of the planet.

They should be along to declare this thread a victory for themselves anytime now...

[TonyR]

Obama's lead over McCain was 1.9 percent. Today, his lead over Romney is 2.8 percent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ago_today.html

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....ago-today.html

[TonyR]

Generic Democrat – perhaps a mildly unfair label – wasn’t quite enough for Gore in 2000 and I’m not sure Generic Republican is going to be quite enough for Romney in 2012 either. The two are almost mirror-images of one another. A good economy couldn’t save Gore; it’s not clear a bad one can rescue Romney.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-ma...ats-a-problem/

[TonyR]

Roughly one third of American households rely solely on mobile phones and do not have landlines, meaning they will simply be excluded by polls that call landlines only. Potential voters who rely on cellphones belong to more Democratic-leaning demographic groups than those which don’t, and there is reasonably strong empirical evidence that the failure to include them in polls can bias the results against Democrats, even after demographic weightings are applied.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

[TonyR]

Not looking good for the Mittster:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-34814

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...wisconsin?lite

[El Minion]

The Wolf: "Well, let's not start sucking each other's cócks quite yet"

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Conservatives Working on Their Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign

Conservative groups are getting ready for a massive get-out-the-vote campaign on (and before) election day. Groups such as the National Rifle Association and College Republicans, as well as billionaire-backed superPACs are setting up a highly sophisticated operation to match or surpass what the Democrats set up in 2008. The effort has many facets. In Florida, a new law passed by the Republican-controlled legislature inhibited Democratic registration efforts. In Wisconsin, the Democrats' attempt to recall Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) allowed conservative groups to test their house-by-house voter outreach strategy. In Ohio, 10,000 churches in rural areas have been enlisted to distribute two million voter guides.

The Citizens United decision is allowing the Republican effort to be far better funded and organized than anything John McCain could have even dreamed about in 2008. Billionaire David Koch is spending $125 million in the 2012 campaign, half of it on the ground in battleground states. Spending money on the ground war is a twofer over the air war because it benefits all Republicans, also those downticket, not just Romney.

With so few undecided voters left, many observers think the presidential race will come down to which side does a better job of getting its voters to the polls, hence the importance of the ground game.

[frerottenextelway]

It's not a close race. Fox has this as a blowout. 538 has the nowcast (if today was election day) at 95% chance Obama. The Senate is most likely to easily stay D, and even the House isnt even safe anymore (unbelievable!).

[Rohirrim]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com// now has Obama at 329.7 to Romney's 208.3. Those are bad numbers for Mitt. Also, Obama has crossed the 50% barrier, usually an indicator of a win. Obama's odds of winning are 95.4%. Romney's are 4.6%.

[frerottenextelway]

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com// now has Obama at 329.7 to Romney's 208.3. Those are bad numbers for Mitt. Also, Obama has crossed the 50% barrier, usually an indicator of a win. Obama's odds of winning are 95.4%. Romney's are 4.6%.

[Old Dude]

Concerning the disparity in polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

I can easily understand why Obama would perform better in polls that include cell phones. Romney's strongest age group is the over-65 bracket and far more of them tend to exclusively use landlines. (I myself have a cellphone, but I don't think I've made more than a dozen calls on it in the past year and I rarely bother to even charge it.)

Younger voters certainly favored Obama last time around and I don't have any doubt that more of them exclusively use cell phones. Other demographics are consistent with that as well.

What I don't really understand is why Obama tends to poll higher in systems that use a live person to conduct the questioning rather than an automated "robo-call." I don't see why the results should be any different. Anyone care to share any insight on that?

[DBruleU]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Concerning the disparity in polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

I can easily understand why Obama would perform better in polls that include cell phones. Romney's strongest age group is the over-65 bracket and far more of them tend to exclusively use landlines. (I myself have a cellphone, but I don't think I've made more than a dozen calls on it in the past year and I rarely bother to even charge it.)

Younger voters certainly favored Obama last time around and I don't have any doubt that more of them exclusively use cell phones. Other demographics are consistent with that as well.

What I don't really understand is why Obama tends to poll higher in systems that use a live person to conduct the questioning rather than an automated "robo-call." I don't see why the results should be any different. Anyone care to share any insight on that?

I've wondered the same thing. I sometimes think people just say Obama when asked the question by a live person by reason of just feeling like that's who they should say. When asked by a robocall...no pressure to say one or the other.

[pricejj]

The media has done their best to make Romney sound like a dirty word. We'll see what happens in the voter booth.

[Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by pricejj

The media has done their best to make Romney sound like a dirty word. We'll see what happens in the voter booth.

Romney's incompetence has done that. The righty refusal to take responsibility raises it pathetic head once again.

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Concerning the disparity in polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...de-cellphones/

I can easily understand why Obama would perform better in polls that include cell phones. Romney's strongest age group is the over-65 bracket and far more of them tend to exclusively use landlines. (I myself have a cellphone, but I don't think I've made more than a dozen calls on it in the past year and I rarely bother to even charge it.)

Younger voters certainly favored Obama last time around and I don't have any doubt that more of them exclusively use cell phones. Other demographics are consistent with that as well.

What I don't really understand is why Obama tends to poll higher in systems that use a live person to conduct the questioning rather than an automated "robo-call." I don't see why the results should be any different. Anyone care to share any insight on that?

What I understood from 538 is that it's part and parcell of the cell phone issue. It is illegal to robo call cell phones, and there's only one robo call poll that also uses live people to call cell phones. In other words, there are almost no non-live polls that include cell phones, so the non-live polls are less favorable to Obama because they are also no cell phone polls.