Three New Likely Voter Polls - The Orange Mane

houghtam · 09-13-2012, 04:51 PM

These polls are all likely voters.

9/13: Obama Up Five Points Over Romney in Virginia

This is without factoring how much of the vote third-party candidate and fellow conservative Virgil Goode will take away from Romney. Virginia will be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...y-in-virginia/

9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida

5 point lead for Obama, 7 point lead for Obama with independent voters. Florida will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...ey-in-florida/

9/13: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points in Ohio

Obama has a sizable lead in all age groups in Ohio, including a whopping 9% advantage over Romney in likely voters 60 and over. Ohio will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...oints-in-ohio/

peacepipe · 09-13-2012, 05:28 PM

explains some of the desperation willard is showing. It's still no excuse for willard trying to exploit the deaths of americans in libya for political gain.

Paladin · 09-13-2012, 05:31 PM

Didn't work anyway.

Pseudofool · 09-13-2012, 07:53 PM

I'm thinking Obama might win bigger than he did with McCain. McCain actually got a convention bounce, and it wasn't until after the debates that Obama should a substantive lead.

Jetmeck · 09-13-2012, 09:56 PM

Actually the polls and the pathetic showing at the repub convention are to blame for pathetic reach and desperation coming from Romney and several OP
on this board..............

BTW obama is up 6 points in the FOX NEWS POLL which Bill O reilly tried to discredit......get that...he tried to discredit his own right leaning poll.

Folks the wheels are coming off...............

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 09-13-2012, 11:34 PM

Keep opening your cake hole, Mittens - every time you says something, the voters get a clearer picture of what a complete piece of moral garbage on legs you really are.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 09-13-2012, 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetmeck

Actually the polls and the pathetic showing at the repub convention are to blame for pathetic reach and desperation coming from Romney and several OP
on this board..............

BTW obama is up 6 points in the FOX NEWS POLL which Bill O reilly tried to discredit......get that...he tried to discredit his own right leaning poll.

Folks the wheels are coming off...............

The most stark difference between the two conventions:

The DNC reflected the real America in all its diversity.

The RNC looked like some kind of Klan or Aryan Brotherhood rally.

Thanks to eight years of Bush and, now, the TeaTards, the GOP has been reduced to an exclusive club for sister diddling racists, snake handlers, and a handful of rich white guys.

DBruleU · 09-14-2012, 08:04 AM

While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%.

Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up.

Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

Jetmeck · 09-14-2012, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%.

Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up.

Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

OK I realize facts are hard for you right asswipes but one poll showing Romney up versus a half dozen saying otherwise should give you a clue.

The fox news poll has OBAMA up by 6 points, spin that one ?

Traveler · 09-14-2012, 11:28 AM

While it does seem the wheels are falling off the R & R boys campaign, I'll wait till the election is over.

Anyone else notice that Romney did another flop and basically did what he accused the President of doing. Certainly sounds to me like he's apologizing for America.

Quote:

Well, I haven't seen the film. I don't intend to see it. I you know, I think it's dispiriting sometimes to see some of the awful things people say. And the idea of using something that some people consider sacred and then parading that out a negative way is simply inappropriate and wrong. And I wish people wouldn't do it. Of course, we have a First Amendment. And under the First Amendment, people are allowed to do what they feel they want to do. They have the right to do that, but it's not right to do things that are of the nature of what was done by, apparently this film. [...]

"I think the whole film is a terrible idea. I think him making it, promoting it showing it is disrespectful to people of other faiths. I don't think that should happen. I think people should have the common courtesy and judgment -- the good judgment -- not to be -- not to offend other peoples' faiths. It's a very bad thing, I think, this guy's doing."

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/20...e-rejects?lite

What say you?

Drek · 09-14-2012, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%.

Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up.

Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

LULZ, RAS as a balanced and accurate poll.

FYI, Rasmussen always leans right pretty strongly up until late October when they start rolling out more legitimate polls to keep their status as "unbiased" in tact.

Just a few weeks ago they had 14 point swings within a week in both Ohio and Florida. Hell of a model they're working with to generate that kind of swing.

ghwk · 09-14-2012, 11:42 AM

No polls matter right now other than they may make Romney do something desperate. The debates will seal the deal for one of them, and I think Romney will F up based on his performance in the Republican debates. Biden and Ryan will be an idological draw.

Unfortunately the winning sound bite will determine a bunch of people's votes e.g. "I knew Jack Kennedy and you sir are no Jack Kennedy".

Jetmeck · 09-14-2012, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghwk

No polls matter right now other than they may make Romney do something desperate. The debates will seal the deal for one of them, and I think Romney will F up based on his performance in the Republican debates. Biden and Ryan will be an idological draw.

Unfortunately the winning sound bite will determine a bunch of people's votes e.g. "I knew Jack Kennedy and you sir are no Jack Kennedy".

True, the game is still in play. Obama has not a comfortable lead.

However Romney is getting desperate and will continue doing stupid stuff which will push the polls more towards Obama.

The debates will seal the deal. Romney is not a quick thinker nor a even somewhat good speaker.............Obama will beat him over the head with facts ala Bill Clinton and Romney will look clueless as has looked many many times.

DBruleU · 09-14-2012, 01:11 PM

The three NBC/Marist polls over sample Democrats and Ind. Democrats made up 31% to Republicans 26%. So it's clear the numbers will favor Obama by far. Independents made up 43%. Independents haven't even made up more than 30% of Virginia statewide voting the past two election cycles.

These polls also bank on the fact that we will see voting demographics close to 2008 election when we saw massive Democratic turnout. Voter enthusiasm this time around is going to favor Republicans as they are more enthusiastic about voting.

And no...it's not just one poll showing Romney leading. It's just you only hear about Obama leading polls in the media. Another poll of likely voters released on Tuesday had Romney up 5 points in Virginia.

Bottom line is...all polls are BS and we know that based on past elections. Before the recall vote of Scott Walker the polls indicated he would lose.

peacepipe · 09-14-2012, 01:58 PM

rasmussen is a joke. always has been.

peacepipe · 09-14-2012, 02:02 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

obama leads in all legit polls.

peacepipe · 09-14-2012, 02:04 PM

as pathetc as ras is,they even have Obama ahead in VA.

DBruleU · 09-14-2012, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peacepipe

rasmussen is a joke. always has been.

Of course you think that.

But my first post indicates they were the most accurate in 2008.

Jetmeck · 09-14-2012, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Of course you think that.

But my first post indicates they were the most accurate in 2008.

what about all the rest of the polls that say different including a fox news poll or do you just want to ignore that ?

peacepipe · 09-14-2012, 02:19 PM

Dblow is is as desperate as willard. can't handle the fact that willard is losing the race.

Jetland · 09-14-2012, 02:19 PM

Tombstones take from the rep bomb thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaylore

Rasmussen is the only accurate poll. It's predicted the presidential outcomes with greater accuracy than any of the others. I believe the most recent CNN poll polled 33% Dems to 22% Republicans and showed a (surprise) Obama seven point lead! Go figure!

media manipulation at its finest. "tombstone RJ"

peacepipe · 09-14-2012, 02:25 PM

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/rasmussen-bias-redux/

Quote:

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.

Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

This lends more credence to the view I expressed Wednesday: Rasmussen’s sample is biased because they’re polling on the cheap — using robocalls, which by law can’t dial cell phones, and otherwise cutting corners — rather than because of some agenda to propagandize for the GOP. The end result, however, is the same: Polls that can’t be trusted.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 09-14-2012, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBruleU

Bottom line is...all polls are BS and we know that based on past elections. .

Actually, no.

Polls can't take GOP fraud (see 2000 and 2004) into account.

Kid A · 09-14-2012, 02:39 PM

Best resource, in my opinion, is Five Thirty Eight. For the uninitiated, the guy who managed Baseball Prospectus analyzed all the polls, finding their biases, figuring out what indicators really matter and nailed it in the 08 election. Now his blog is hosted by the NYT: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Anyway, he has Obama in a solid lead right now due to him having a slight lead pre-convention, Romney getting almost no boost in the poll from the RNC (which normally would be expected to be higher) and Obama getting a decent boost from the DNC. Has Obama at 78% odds (92% if election were held today).

Lack of a bounce from the RNC seems to indicate this isn't an election Romney can win. Certainly one Obama could lose with a big enough sudden downturn in the economy, but nothing the Romney campaign does at this point will overturn the fact that swing voters just don't really like him and, sluggish economy aside, seem to want to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

DBruleU · 09-14-2012, 04:11 PM

You guys can all bash Rasmussen all you want. But you ignore the fact that they are consistently accurate in their polling. You convenvetinalty ignore what I said earlier.

I was talking to a friend about polling and he made a good point that further illustrates what I have been saying.

Actual turnout in 2008 was Dem +7, and incidentally, Obama also won the popular vote by +7.

In 2010, the actual turnout was Repub +2 !!! Yet all these polls are using sample sizes based on 2008!! Or WORSE. One poll had Obama up +7, but the sample size was Dem+10!!! PLUS TEN!! That would assume that Dem turnout this year would be BETTER than in 2008!!! NO WAY THAT HAPPENS!! These polls are meant to INFLUENCE. Polls will get more accurate with about 1-2 weeks to go until the election. That's because they stop trying to influence....and actually start worrying about their reputations as accurate pollsters.

Turnout will probably be closer to 2010, which was Repub +2.....could be even, could be higher.

If these polls sampled based on R+2.....Romney would be up by at least 6-7 points.

It all comes down to turnout.

09-13-2012, 04:51 PM	#1
houghtam WHAT IS YOUR PROFESSION MethWolfeAlliance Member #11001001 Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Lansing, MI Posts: 5,033 Adopt-a-Bronco: Demon Eagles	Three New Likely Voter Polls These polls are all likely voters. 9/13: Obama Up Five Points Over Romney in Virginia This is without factoring how much of the vote third-party candidate and fellow conservative Virgil Goode will take away from Romney. Virginia will be a blue state again in 2012. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...y-in-virginia/ 9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida 5 point lead for Obama, 7 point lead for Obama with independent voters. Florida will likely be a blue state again in 2012. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...ey-in-florida/ 9/13: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points in Ohio Obama has a sizable lead in all age groups in Ohio, including a whopping 9% advantage over Romney in likely voters 60 and over. Ohio will likely be a blue state again in 2012. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-oba...oints-in-ohio/

09-14-2012, 02:39 PM	#24
Kid A Ring of Famer I don't need love. I just need wins Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 4,595	Best resource, in my opinion, is Five Thirty Eight. For the uninitiated, the guy who managed Baseball Prospectus analyzed all the polls, finding their biases, figuring out what indicators really matter and nailed it in the 08 election. Now his blog is hosted by the NYT: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Anyway, he has Obama in a solid lead right now due to him having a slight lead pre-convention, Romney getting almost no boost in the poll from the RNC (which normally would be expected to be higher) and Obama getting a decent boost from the DNC. Has Obama at 78% odds (92% if election were held today). Lack of a bounce from the RNC seems to indicate this isn't an election Romney can win. Certainly one Obama could lose with a big enough sudden downturn in the economy, but nothing the Romney campaign does at this point will overturn the fact that swing voters just don't really like him and, sluggish economy aside, seem to want to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. Last edited by Kid A; 09-14-2012 at 02:42 PM..

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09-13-2012, 05:28 PM	#2
peacepipe Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,767 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	explains some of the desperation willard is showing. It's still no excuse for willard trying to exploit the deaths of americans in libya for political gain.

09-13-2012, 05:31 PM	#3
Paladin Ring of Famer Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,151	Didn't work anyway.

09-13-2012, 07:53 PM	#4
Pseudofool Cynic at Large Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: The Kingdom of Solipsism Posts: 2,886 Adopt-a-Bronco: Me?	I'm thinking Obama might win bigger than he did with McCain. McCain actually got a convention bounce, and it wasn't until after the debates that Obama should a substantive lead.

09-13-2012, 11:34 PM	#6
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,694	Keep opening your cake hole, Mittens - every time you says something, the voters get a clearer picture of what a complete piece of moral garbage on legs you really are.

09-14-2012, 08:04 AM	#8
DBruleU Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Boulder, the bastion of communism. Posts: 3,663	While usually all polls are total BS at this point and there are so many different polls that go one way or the other...I found this interesting. A report listed the most accurate polls from the 2008 election. At the top of those most accurate? Pew and Rasmussen. Rasmussen today has Romney up 48% to 45%. Also, swing state tracking has Romney/Obama all tied up. Whatever bump Obama got after the election is slowly dissipating and who knows how this ME crisis plays into polls in the coming weeks. One of Obama's strong points according to pollsters is his FP. That may take a hit.

09-14-2012, 11:42 AM	#12
ghwk Ring of Famer DOOM BOOM! Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,853 Adopt-a-Bronco: Von Doomacus	No polls matter right now other than they may make Romney do something desperate. The debates will seal the deal for one of them, and I think Romney will F up based on his performance in the Republican debates. Biden and Ryan will be an idological draw. Unfortunately the winning sound bite will determine a bunch of people's votes e.g. "I knew Jack Kennedy and you sir are no Jack Kennedy".

09-14-2012, 01:11 PM	#14
DBruleU Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Boulder, the bastion of communism. Posts: 3,663	The three NBC/Marist polls over sample Democrats and Ind. Democrats made up 31% to Republicans 26%. So it's clear the numbers will favor Obama by far. Independents made up 43%. Independents haven't even made up more than 30% of Virginia statewide voting the past two election cycles. These polls also bank on the fact that we will see voting demographics close to 2008 election when we saw massive Democratic turnout. Voter enthusiasm this time around is going to favor Republicans as they are more enthusiastic about voting. And no...it's not just one poll showing Romney leading. It's just you only hear about Obama leading polls in the media. Another poll of likely voters released on Tuesday had Romney up 5 points in Virginia. Bottom line is...all polls are BS and we know that based on past elections. Before the recall vote of Scott Walker the polls indicated he would lose.

09-14-2012, 01:58 PM	#15
peacepipe Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,767 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	rasmussen is a joke. always has been.

09-14-2012, 02:02 PM	#16
peacepipe Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,767 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html obama leads in all legit polls.

09-14-2012, 02:04 PM	#17
peacepipe Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,767 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	as pathetc as ras is,they even have Obama ahead in VA.

09-14-2012, 02:19 PM	#20
peacepipe Ring of Famer New to the Forum Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,767 Adopt-a-Bronco: None	Dblow is is as desperate as willard. can't handle the fact that willard is losing the race.

09-14-2012, 04:11 PM	#25
DBruleU Ring of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Boulder, the bastion of communism. Posts: 3,663	You guys can all bash Rasmussen all you want. But you ignore the fact that they are consistently accurate in their polling. You convenvetinalty ignore what I said earlier. I was talking to a friend about polling and he made a good point that further illustrates what I have been saying. Actual turnout in 2008 was Dem +7, and incidentally, Obama also won the popular vote by +7. In 2010, the actual turnout was Repub +2 !!! Yet all these polls are using sample sizes based on 2008!! Or WORSE. One poll had Obama up +7, but the sample size was Dem+10!!! PLUS TEN!! That would assume that Dem turnout this year would be BETTER than in 2008!!! NO WAY THAT HAPPENS!! These polls are meant to INFLUENCE. Polls will get more accurate with about 1-2 weeks to go until the election. That's because they stop trying to influence....and actually start worrying about their reputations as accurate pollsters. Turnout will probably be closer to 2010, which was Repub +2.....could be even, could be higher. If these polls sampled based on R+2.....Romney would be up by at least 6-7 points. It all comes down to turnout.