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Old 02-26-2012, 08:04 PM   #51
FantomForce
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UTAH STATE HEY AGGIES ALL THE WAY!!! He'd follow fomer alumni Micah Knorr and Rulon Jones before him. We call Turbin THE incredible hulk for a reason, he would not dissapoint. Truly though I think he could come in and do what Mike Anderson did for a couple of seasons
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:08 PM   #52
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UTAH STATE HEY AGGIES ALL THE WAY!!! He'd follow fomer alumni Micah Knorr and Rulon Jones before him. We call Turbin THE incredible hulk for a reason, he would not dissapoint. Truly though I think he could come in and do what Mike Anderson did for a couple of seasons
True, and he has more speed to offer. Maybe he'd bring the mile high salute back.





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Old 02-26-2012, 08:10 PM   #53
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Default Turbin

The San Jose Mercury News ran a nice story on him today:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_20049519

Yes he had a bad injury two years ago. But if he is around in the late 4th or 5th. He would be a great value. I saw him play against the University of Utah in his Sophomore year and on the Aggies first play from scrimmage broke off a 96 yard touchdown. Great players make great plays like that.

See that here I think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ratvo9H0qU0

At the time Utah was known for having fast cornerbacks...I didn't even know who Turbin was...had to find him on my program.

Here is one against Texas A.M. (only 51 yards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqV5kfhckCE

Great character guy as well. We could do worse than to have guys like him on the team.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:14 PM   #54
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If we can grab this guy in the 4-5 round we will be the epic win. I just dont think he'll last that long.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:14 PM   #55
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The San Jose Mercury News ran a nice story on him today:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_20049519

Yes he had a bad injury two years ago. But if he is around in the late 4th or 5th. He would be a great value. I saw him play against the University of Utah in his Sophomore year and on the Aggies first play from scrimmage broke off a 96 yard touchdown. Great players make great plays like that.

See that here I think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ratvo9H0qU0

At the time Utah was known for having fast cornerbacks...I didn't even know who Turbin was...had to find him on my program.

Here is one against Texas A.M. (only 51 yards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqV5kfhckCE

Great character guy as well. We could do worse than to have guys like him on the team.
I think that as the days inch closer to the draft, the general concensus is going to be that the late 3rd would be a "fall" and a "steal" and that the 2nd will be a slight reach, but on a sleeper. ****, if someone took him in the mid second, i wouldn't be shocked. same thing happened when i called michael mitchell in the second a few years back.

No way is he around in the 4th anymore, though. There are only 2 backs of his type in this draft (More than 217-220, runs above a 4.50-4.55)

Him and Trent Richardson.

Let's keep in mind with this knee injury that he's rebounded from it and broke off his 80 yard run post injury.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oezH1248T7I

He also ran a 4.5 today, as everyone knows.

So while the knee is a concern, perhaps the knee is even stronger and less susceptible to injury than it previously was... Is that how knee cartilage/bone works? I'm not very schooled in the medical sciences.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:19 PM   #56
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my "fallacy" was a fact. The fact is players did put on 7+ pounds on average after being drafted. I don't mean to rub it in, or be a pompous a-hole, but.. case dismissed.
You're not rubbing anything or being a pompous a-hole, you're just blinded by your own over-analysis and faulty reasoning.

You took the average weight for the top ten prospects over the past five years and compared that to the average NFL weight. Then you determined that because the NFL weight was more than the combine average for those prospects, the prospects must have gained that weight after entering the league.

I mean, can you really not see all of the assumptions and illogical conclusions involved in stating something like that as a 'fact'?
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:24 PM   #57
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You took the average weight for the top ten prospects over the past five years and compared that to the average NFL weight. Then you determined that because the NFL weight was more than the combine average for those prospects, the prospects must have gained that weight after entering the league.

I mean, can you really not see all of the assumptions and illogical conclusions involved in stating something like that as a 'fact'?
These top 10 prospects, on average, stay in the league longer than the average NFL running back. Can we agree on that?

and can we agree that the running backs who have the most success are the higher drafted, heavier ones?

Because, if we can, then we can understand that that data was put in place in the first place to refute your claim: edit: that i agree with, but not to the extent that it covered the weight differential in our original argument

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Had you even considered that perhaps the [running backs] who had success were the ones who were above the combine average, and then stuck around in the league thereby raising the average NFL RB weight?
c'mon son.

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Old 02-26-2012, 08:29 PM   #58
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You're not hearing what I'm saying because your take on the issue is so skewed to your way of thinking.

None of the data you've listed has proven that any kind of weight gain is typical, or even that it happens. It's an assumption you've made to explain the difference in league average vs. combine average, but you haven't shown any sort of proof that would allow you to claim it a fact.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:37 PM   #59
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None of the data you've listed has proven that any kind of weight gain is typical, or even that it happens. It's an assumption you've made to explain the difference in league average vs. combine average, but you haven't shown any sort of proof that would allow you to claim it a fact.
I mean, you're actually right here.... My data is presumptuous and not entirely, 100% proven... I can't prove it because i don't have the time (believe it or not) or the resources.

You know my data makes sense logically. you admitted it before. You admitted you thought these guys would probably put on 5+ pounds. (like my data indicated)

you know that it's probably right, as opposed to wrong. the data indicated that weight gain is typical in both top prospects and all prospects, since most current nfl running backs were at one point top prospects and/or drafted. obviously my data doesn't account for everything, but it accounts for the logical stuff. and it's probably right. i can't prove it, but it's probably right.

it's not a stone cold, 100% fact, but it's certainly not a stone cold 100% fallacy as you pointed out.

a fallacy indicates that my argument is unsound. it's not unsound, it's good data that is leading toward the truth. it's just not able to be completed to the extent that would make it 100% factual.

I'll bring it up again. my data indicates that players put on 5+ pounds after they are rookies, and you agreed with me a few pages back on that.

so perhaps we are both wrong.

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Old 02-26-2012, 08:41 PM   #60
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Nah, I'm right.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:41 PM   #61
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Nah, I'm right.
hah. well this is a good way to close the night.

i look forward to our future and inevitable arguments.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:43 PM   #62
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The very definition of average means middle or intermediate meaning you must have a floor and ceiing in order to have a middle

Any normal distribution is a Bell Curve. For every Brandon Jacobs you have a Darren SProles. Same can be applied to the RB entering the NFL draft, For every Turbin who may be at one end of the Bell Curve you have a LaMicheal James at the other. It's a fallacy to say every RB that enters the NFL will gain weight. It just is not true based on some average statistic.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:43 PM   #63
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Jameson:

If you want to prove that RBs gain weight after joining the NFL, find a large number of examples that support your theory. Look at the combine weight for AD, and compare it to his current weight. Repeat around 20 or 30 times for different RBs, and see what the data actually says. Your current method is so flawed with other possible reasons for the data trends you're arriving at that there's really no way to prove anything with it.
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:46 PM   #64
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Jameson:

If you want to prove that RBs gain weight after joining the NFL, find a large number of examples that support your theory. Look at the combine weight for AD, and compare it to his current weight. Repeat around 20 or 30 times for different RBs, and see what the data actually says. Your current method is so flawed with other possible reasons for the data trends you're arriving at that there's really no way to prove anything with it.
All combine RBs are NFL RBs but not all NFL RBs are combine RBs. That is a fact that he is not taking into account
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Old 02-26-2012, 08:47 PM   #65
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It's a fallacy to say every RB that enters the NFL will gain weight. It just is not true based on some average statistic.
that's not my original argument. my original argument was that, when observing a prospect's combine weight, we should determine if they are "big" or "undersized" (in terms of weight, but not height) based off of how they compare to the average rb prospect, not how they compare to the average nfl running back. because the average (50% of prospects) puts on 8 pounds, and i'd estimate that even the lower end of the bell curve puts on a measly 2 pounds. it's not a fallacy, like i said. it's logical stuff.. but i sadly can't prove it to the extent i'd like. obviously there will be loop holes in my argument, but for the most part, i think that at the end of the day, if someone put a gun to your head and said:

do you or don't you agree that running back prospects put on weight by the time they are part of this "average nfl rb" data, you'd say yes. and you'd be hard pressed to find proof, but you'd probably side with me, and not with reverend, in the fact that rober turbin is not just "above average in size" he is a big dude. he is one of the bigger backs out there.

15 pounds heavier than the average prospect at rb this year.

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Old 02-26-2012, 09:00 PM   #66
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that's not my original argument. my original argument was that, when observing a prospect's combine weight, we should determine if they are "big" or "undersized" based off of how they compare to the average prospect, not how they compare to the average running back. because the average (50% of prospects) puts on 8 pounds, and i'd estimate that even the lower end of the bell curve puts on a measly 2 pounds. it's not a fallacy, like i said. it's logical stuff.. but i sadly can't prove it to the extent i'd like. obviously there will be loop holes in my argument, but for the most part, i think that at the end of the day, if someone put a gun to your head and said:

do you or don't you agree that running back prospects put on weight by the time they are part of this "average nfl rb" data, you'd say yes. and you'd be hard pressed to find proof, but you'd probably side with me, and not with reverend, in the fact that rober turbin is not just "above average in size" he is a big dude. he is one of the bigger backs out there.

15 pounds heavier than the average prospect at rb this year.
Rev said compared to the average NFL RB he is just above average. He is moving to the NFL no longer a college player. That is a fact today. I would argue that a player already above the NFL average would not gain more weight Gaining weight is not a great path to success in the NFL if you are already overweight compared to the NFL average (and with a torn ACL to boot). I would need to see several examples that meet Turbin's situation to agree with you. Good luck trying to find them because I doubt they exists and for good reason.

Last edited by CEH; 02-26-2012 at 09:03 PM..
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:07 PM   #67
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Rev said compared to the average NFL RB he is just above average.
No he didn't. He was vague in his original post, and could have and should have been talking about Turbin being "not that much bigger" than the average prospect. He was talking about turbin compared to the average pro, and i disagree with that for reasons i just spend hours defending.
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Tremendous size?

225 is about 2% above average...
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He is moving to the NFL no longer a college player. That is a fact today. I would argue that a player already above the NFL average would not gain more weight Gaining weight is not a great path to success
that's fine. I'm not going to spend more hours of research. Most players at 222 don't have legs as thin as Turbin's. Multiple scouts and experts commented on that today. Turbin could use a good nfl workout regimen and pack on an extra 5 pounds in those hammys, just like MJD did.

You can argue that all you want, but I'd need more than just your opinion. i'd need some examples. After all, you're the one trying to disprove me.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:12 PM   #68
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when observing a prospect's combine weight, we should determine if they are "big" or "undersized" (in terms of weight, but not height) based off of how they compare to the average ... prospect, not how they compare to the average nfl [player].
This is another point I disputed earlier in the thread. It's seems like a silly way to do things, since you're limiting yourself to something other than the 'standard' (league average).

If the draft class included a bunch of enormous freaks at defensive tackle who pushed the average weight up to 330lbs, would you downgrade a guy for weighing only 315lbs and say he's undersized? If the cornerback class included a ridiculous amount of track athletes who pushed the 40-yard dash average down to 4.35, would you downgrade a guy for running a 4.45 and call him slow?
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:13 PM   #69
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No he didn't. He was vague in his original post, and could have and should have been talking about Turbin being "not that much bigger" than the average prospect. He was talking about turbin compared to the average pro, and i disagree with that for reasons i just spend hours defending.




that's fine. I'm not going to spend more hours of research. Most players at 222 don't have legs as thin as Turbin's. Multiple scouts and experts commented on that today. Turbin could use a good nfl workout regimen and pack on an extra 5 pounds in those hammys, just like MJD did.

You can argue that all you want, but I'd need more than just your opinion. i'd need some examples. After all, you're the one trying to disprove me.
MJD is a totally different body type. Chances are Turbine will always have skinny legs.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:21 PM   #70
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This is another point I disputed earlier in the thread. It's seems like a silly way to do things, since you're limiting yourself to something other than the 'standard' (league average).

If the draft class included a bunch of enormous freaks at defensive tackle who pushed the average weight up to 330lbs, would you downgrade a guy for weighing only 315lbs and say he's undersized? If the cornerback class included a ridiculous amount of track athletes who pushed the 40-yard dash average down to 4.35, would you downgrade a guy for running a 4.45 and call him slow?
well here's the thing- said case would never happen. there are too many prospects for that to happen- and if there were 50 prospects who entered in the nfl with that weight, the league average would also baloon and that guy would technically be undersized.

also, many DT's trim weight coming out of college. not all put on weight.

as for corners, if a class (again, around 40-50 kids ever had an average of 4.35, then yes, a 4.45 would be slow compared to an average player, because there has been a huge influx that would alter the league average.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:22 PM   #71
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MJD is a totally different body type. Chances are Turbine will always have skinny legs.
"chances are."

i counter: "chances aren't"

see how disappointing arguments like this are?
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:24 PM   #72
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i know i am
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:25 PM   #73
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Are we buyers for Turbin in the second? Do we move to get him?
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:31 PM   #74
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Are we buyers for Turbin in the second? Do we move to get him?
Yes, but be careful who you say that around. It'll still get you shot in most draft circles. let his stock rise some before we take him anywhere other than the 3rd. still think he'll end up going round 2 at the end of the day.
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Old 02-26-2012, 09:35 PM   #75
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Combine Current
Adrian Peterson 218 217
Marshawn Lynch 217 215
Michael Bush 248 245


I've only done 3 RBs from 2007, but so far this theory is not looking too sound.
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