Is It Ovah? - The Orange Mane

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 07:50 AM

So, what are everybody's thoughts? Can we safely put a fork in McCain? Is it a done deal? Will Obamarama be the next prez? Or does McNasty have a grand finale evil trick up his sleeve? The polls say this one is in the bag.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

Rank&File · 10-08-2008, 08:00 AM

He's done. Obama looked like the incumbent last night. He gives intellegent answers to questions, and has a logical plan. Hopefully the people thinking it's in the bag still show up to vote.

There is nothing imo the McCain camp can do to get back in the game. At this point, even some sort of attack on the US (god forbid) doesn't help his cause. Obama has shown me that he can be strong, he's what we need right now imo.

theAPAOps5 · 10-08-2008, 08:03 AM

Sara the Dumb Broad Palin has been referring to Obama as Barrack Hussein Obama at rallies. Pretty low blow that is backfiring. Couldn't have happened to a better pair if this is in fact done.

Rank&File · 10-08-2008, 08:05 AM

She needs to be gagged with her own pantyhose. Did I just type that? lol

Old Dude · 10-08-2008, 08:07 AM

This guy thinks it's over:

http://www.411mania.com/politics

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 10-08-2008, 08:14 AM

I can't find the link now, but I was looking at a site where some math whiz was crunching numbers and saying Obama should be able to beat the Diebold/GOP voter fraud point spread at this juncture.

I wouldn't put anything past these republican evil-doers, but barring a major "terrorist" attack or another conveniently-timed videotape from Osama bin Forgotten, I think you can stick a fork in the make-believe maverick and the candy striper.

Dudeskey · 10-08-2008, 08:17 AM

No...

Mind the Diebold effect...®

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dude

This guy thinks it's over:

http://www.411mania.com/politics

I agree on "that one." That was a stupid thing to say. We're starting to see Nixon/McGovern numbers.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN · 10-08-2008, 08:37 AM

From Old Dude's link:

Why Guilt-By-Association Is Such A Stupid Road To Go Down

By Ashish on October 8, 2008, at 5:55AM

Here's Obama communications director Robert Gibbs making a fool of Sean Hannity on FOX News after the debate last night, turning the entire guilt-by-association attack line against him and forcing Hannity to defend himself from charges that he is anti-Semitic. And yes, many Republicans including some very close to Ronald Reagan sat on boards with William Ayers. I don't remember hearing any outrage on the right over that. It's just a reminder of how stupid all guilt-by-association attacks are and why the Ayers attack has, if anything, hurt McCain and not Obama since he started using it weeks ago.

Ha ha ha!

I love it!

Old Dude · 10-08-2008, 09:08 AM

Well, I think it's probably over, but there are still some possibilities...

1. Still four weeks and one debate left.
2. Current polls could be a little skewed by "new" voters who won't show up on election day, especially if negative attacks on Obama start sticking and reduce enthusiasm.
3. The Bradley factor (a big unknown generally, and in this election.)
4. Could always be some huge foreign affairs crisis that could tip things back in his direction, but it would have to be gigantic to top the economic issues at this point.

Depending on which poll numbers you look at, McCain is certainly "within range" of capturing Indiana (where he's still leading by a hair),Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada and maybe New Mexico.

If he were to take all of those states, (and win those where he's still assumed to be safely ahead), he'd have 289 electoral votes - a 19 vote margin of error.

So he could lose a couple of the smaller midwest or western states and still come out on top.

Not likely, but not impossible.

(The thing is that even under that scenario, he absolutely positively cannot afford to lose either Ohio or Florida. He's got to hit those states with everything he's got. A loss in either and it really is over.)

SoCalBronco · 10-08-2008, 09:14 AM

For what its worth, Zogby has him down by only 2 in his latest tracking poll
(10/7). I agree with Old Dude that he has to capture both Ohio and Florida. I still think he can win it, but maybe I'm just being optimistic. I dunno....I don't think its over yet.

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 09:15 AM

The trends are definitely not going McCain's way. If fact, just the opposite. Then, there's the bandwagon effect. This is the time when choices tend to set, like concrete. Even those on the bubble become resigned to one choice or the other. Then what happens is a sense of the inevitable starts to take over and many undecided voters start jumping on with the perceived winner. I think that's happening now. The trend is going to turn into a tsunami.

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 09:18 AM

The trend map for McCain in Florida is getting worse as well.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-418.html

I wonder if Palin is not doing him more harm than good. Maybe there's a "Palin backlash" to her nasty rhetoric. I know the base laps it up, but it turns off a lot of people too.

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 09:20 AM

Ohio is about the same as Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-400.html

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 09:21 AM

Pennsylvania and Michigan are ovah.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-244.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-553.html

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 09:27 AM

Wow! Look at what happened to the trend lines in New Hampshire in the last four days.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-195.html

Same in Wisconsin:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-195.html

Hotrod · 10-08-2008, 09:31 AM

I have full faith in the ability of the socialist party to **** this up yet.

alkemical · 10-08-2008, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hotrod

I have full faith in the ability of the socialist party to **** this up yet.

Socialists throw the best parties, didn't you see AIG took a nice vacation?

Old Dude · 10-08-2008, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

Pennsylvania and Michigan are ovah.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-244.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-553.html

Looking at those numbers, I thought it was kind of odd that McCain gave up on Michigan to go after Pennsylvania, because it looked like things were closer in Michigan. I guess Penn. has 4 more electoral votes, but still ...

Someone else was wondering the sme thing, apparently:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...te.html?cat=62

He is out-financed, so he has to be more selective about his targets. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign can keep the pressure up across the board.

Rohirrim · 10-08-2008, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old Dude

Looking at those numbers, I thought it was kind of odd that McCain gave up on Michigan to go after Pennsylvania, because it looked like things were closer in Michigan. I guess Penn. has 4 more electoral votes, but still ...

Someone else was wondering the sme thing, apparently:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...te.html?cat=62

He is out-financed, so he has to be more selective about his targets. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign can keep the pressure up across the board.

I'm thinking McCain is creating a case history for future politicos to study in how not to run a campaign. I'm still not wild about Obama, but I've got to hand it to him, he has run a masterful campaign. Hope he's half as good at running the country.

alkemical · 10-08-2008, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I'm thinking McCain is creating a case history for future politicos to study in how not to run a campaign. I'm still not wild about Obama, but I've got to hand it to him, he has run a masterful campaign. Hope he's half as good at running the country.

At least he'll be good enough to tell us he is.

alkemical · 10-08-2008, 10:29 AM

Look at that - 7 people so far think some shenanigans are gonna happen.

Crushaholic · 10-08-2008, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rohirrim

I'm thinking McCain is creating a case history for future politicos to study in how not to run a campaign. I'm still not wild about Obama, but I've got to hand it to him, he has run a masterful campaign. Hope he's half as good at running the country.

No, Bob Dole is still the reigning champ for pathetic national campaigns in recent history. However, I agree that Obama seems to really want this job...maybe more than McCain. We'll see...

Paladin · 10-08-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crushaholic

No, Bob Dole is still the reigning champ for pathetic national campaigns in recent history. However, I agree that Obama seems to really want this job...maybe more than McCain. We'll see...

I thought it was Dukakus

Arkie · 10-08-2008, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amesj523

Socialists throw the best parties, didn't you see AIG took a nice vacation?

Shhhh. We can't see that. What happenes in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Instead concentrate on the positives. Certain Vegas businesses and whores probably benifited from AIG's little excursion.

10-08-2008, 07:50 AM	#1
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	Is It Ovah? So, what are everybody's thoughts? Can we safely put a fork in McCain? Is it a done deal? Will Obamarama be the next prez? Or does McNasty have a grand finale evil trick up his sleeve? The polls say this one is in the bag. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

10-08-2008, 09:08 AM	#10
Old Dude Host Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: As if I'd tell you crazies! Posts: 14,155	Well, I think it's probably over, but there are still some possibilities... 1. Still four weeks and one debate left. 2. Current polls could be a little skewed by "new" voters who won't show up on election day, especially if negative attacks on Obama start sticking and reduce enthusiasm. 3. The Bradley factor (a big unknown generally, and in this election.) 4. Could always be some huge foreign affairs crisis that could tip things back in his direction, but it would have to be gigantic to top the economic issues at this point. Depending on which poll numbers you look at, McCain is certainly "within range" of capturing Indiana (where he's still leading by a hair),Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada and maybe New Mexico. If he were to take all of those states, (and win those where he's still assumed to be safely ahead), he'd have 289 electoral votes - a 19 vote margin of error. So he could lose a couple of the smaller midwest or western states and still come out on top. Not likely, but not impossible. (The thing is that even under that scenario, he absolutely positively cannot afford to lose either Ohio or Florida. He's got to hit those states with everything he's got. A loss in either and it really is over.) Last edited by Old Dude; 10-08-2008 at 09:12 AM..

10-08-2008, 09:14 AM	#11
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Arcadia, CA Posts: 33,311 Adopt-a-Bronco: D.J. Williams	For what its worth, Zogby has him down by only 2 in his latest tracking poll (10/7). I agree with Old Dude that he has to capture both Ohio and Florida. I still think he can win it, but maybe I'm just being optimistic. I dunno....I don't think its over yet. __________________ ITS A PLAYOFF HOCKEY NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH!

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10-08-2008, 08:00 AM	#2
Rank&File Solid Starter 1000 yard stare Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Virginia Posts: 206 Adopt-a-Bronco: Tom Nalen	He's done. Obama looked like the incumbent last night. He gives intellegent answers to questions, and has a logical plan. Hopefully the people thinking it's in the bag still show up to vote. There is nothing imo the McCain camp can do to get back in the game. At this point, even some sort of attack on the US (god forbid) doesn't help his cause. Obama has shown me that he can be strong, he's what we need right now imo.

10-08-2008, 08:03 AM	#3
theAPAOps5 A new beginning! Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 26,058 Adopt-a-Bronco: Watermock - RIP	Sara the Dumb Broad Palin has been referring to Obama as Barrack Hussein Obama at rallies. Pretty low blow that is backfiring. Couldn't have happened to a better pair if this is in fact done.

10-08-2008, 08:05 AM	#4
Rank&File Solid Starter 1000 yard stare Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Virginia Posts: 206 Adopt-a-Bronco: Tom Nalen	She needs to be gagged with her own pantyhose. Did I just type that? lol

10-08-2008, 08:07 AM	#5
Old Dude Host Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: As if I'd tell you crazies! Posts: 14,155	This guy thinks it's over: http://www.411mania.com/politics

10-08-2008, 08:14 AM	#6
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,694	I can't find the link now, but I was looking at a site where some math whiz was crunching numbers and saying Obama should be able to beat the Diebold/GOP voter fraud point spread at this juncture. I wouldn't put anything past these republican evil-doers, but barring a major "terrorist" attack or another conveniently-timed videotape from Osama bin Forgotten, I think you can stick a fork in the make-believe maverick and the candy striper.

10-08-2008, 08:17 AM	#7
Dudeskey Ring of Famer This space for rent Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Colorado Springs, CO Posts: 4,314	No... Mind the Diebold effect...®

10-08-2008, 08:37 AM	#9
L.A. BRONCOS FAN Mo' holla fo' yo' dolla! Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: In a bunker in an undisclosed location Posts: 52,694	From Old Dude's link: Why Guilt-By-Association Is Such A Stupid Road To Go Down By Ashish on October 8, 2008, at 5:55AM Here's Obama communications director Robert Gibbs making a fool of Sean Hannity on FOX News after the debate last night, turning the entire guilt-by-association attack line against him and forcing Hannity to defend himself from charges that he is anti-Semitic. And yes, many Republicans including some very close to Ronald Reagan sat on boards with William Ayers. I don't remember hearing any outrage on the right over that. It's just a reminder of how stupid all guilt-by-association attacks are and why the Ayers attack has, if anything, hurt McCain and not Obama since he started using it weeks ago. Ha ha ha! I love it!

10-08-2008, 09:15 AM	#12
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	The trends are definitely not going McCain's way. If fact, just the opposite. Then, there's the bandwagon effect. This is the time when choices tend to set, like concrete. Even those on the bubble become resigned to one choice or the other. Then what happens is a sense of the inevitable starts to take over and many undecided voters start jumping on with the perceived winner. I think that's happening now. The trend is going to turn into a tsunami.

10-08-2008, 09:18 AM	#13
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	The trend map for McCain in Florida is getting worse as well. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-418.html I wonder if Palin is not doing him more harm than good. Maybe there's a "Palin backlash" to her nasty rhetoric. I know the base laps it up, but it turns off a lot of people too.

10-08-2008, 09:20 AM	#14
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	Ohio is about the same as Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-400.html

10-08-2008, 09:21 AM	#15
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	Pennsylvania and Michigan are ovah. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-244.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-553.html

10-08-2008, 09:27 AM	#16
Rohirrim Partisan Human Cannonball Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Twixt Hell & Highwater Posts: 48,843	Wow! Look at what happened to the trend lines in New Hampshire in the last four days. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-195.html Same in Wisconsin: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-195.html

10-08-2008, 09:31 AM	#17
Hotrod Self Appointed Expert aka Dortoh Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 25,136 Adopt-a-Bronco: Miss I	I have full faith in the ability of the socialist party to **** this up yet.

10-08-2008, 10:29 AM	#22
alkemical Guerrilla Ontologist rorrim\|mirror Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Future Posts: 42,696 Adopt-a-Bronco: Prima Materia	Look at that - 7 people so far think some shenanigans are gonna happen.