The Official Sports Gambling Thread

[bfoflcommish]

Need help with your picks for the weekend?

Want to post your parlay card for all to see before hand?

Just want to chat good ol fashioned sports gambling talk?



Here is the thread for you.

[TheReverend]

Cardinals +3
Ravens +2.5
Cowboys -6
Lions +2
Chargers -6
Seahawks -6
Patriots -6.5
Redskins -3
Vikings -3
Eagles -3
Panthers +1
Jaguars -6.5
Steelers -4.5
Broncos -3
Texans -3
Colts -6


And my seven team progressive parly:
Steelers -4.5
Broncos -3
Eagles -3
Seahawks -6
Patriots -6.5
Cowboys -6
Redskins -3

[bfoflcommish]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

Cardinals +3
Ravens +2.5
Cowboys -6
Lions +2
Chargers -6
Seahawks -6
Patriots -6.5
Redskins -3
Vikings -3
Eagles -3
Panthers +1
Jaguars -6.5
Steelers -4.5
Broncos -3
Texans -3
Colts -6


And my seven team progressive parly:
Steelers -4.5
Broncos -3
Eagles -3
Seahawks -6
Patriots -6.5
Cowboys -6
Redskins -3

I like that parlay. Little worried about Seahawks and skins for you though.

Disagree with quite a few of your other picks

for example
Panthers
Ravens
Lions
Texans

[LordHelmchen]

Didn't place my bets yet for the weekend action. For tonight I have +53 ... though I'm historically really bad @ betting the over/under.

This year I try to stay away from parlays.

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by bfoflcommish

I like that parlay. Little worried about Seahawks and skins for you though.

Disagree with quite a few of your other picks

for example
Panthers
Ravens
Lions
Texans

Glad we're generating some discussion. I'll tell you why I chose those teams and then let me know if you agree/disagree and your basis for your decisions please.

I think the Seahawks made great upgrades to their defense via draft/free agency and I see Tampa Bay as a former stout defense that has aged severely and lost key personnel. I see Seattle's offense healthy and hungry for the playoffs again. I see Tampa's offense desperate with major questions on the line, RB, WR and QB.

I don't exactly think much of Washington, though I think Campbell is talented and will continue growing, you cannot deny the Portis/Betts punch and a defense with the best safeties in the league and great coaching. Miami on the hand is another aging team with a first year coach. Ronnie Brown is in the doghouse. Apparently so is Chambers (trade rumors). Trent Green is stop gap at best. I think Miami is in the cellar this year.

I LOVE Steven Jackson and the Rams offense. That being said, I think Delhomme had a poor year last year and is going to bounce back. Carolina's D is still a dominant force and the class of the NFC. I'm ready for them to punch the Rams offense in the mouth and move the ball with ease against St Louis's weak D.

As for the Ravens... simply put I can't take Cincinnati's defense seriously and think between the progression of Haloti Ngata, that defense is going to be too much for an offense line that lost a key player to free agency to handle.

A lot's being said about the turn around of the Raiders but until I see a few new faces on their offensive line I can't say that I buy it for a single second. Obviously the Lions have losing traditions of their own but their losing culture/attitude seems to have come to an end and I wouldn't be surprised to see them approach 8-8 while Oakland struggles to see 6 wins.

Texans and Chiefs was hard for me to decide. On one hand, KC still has gonzo and LJ. On the other, their O line is in shambles. Houston's Johnson should abuse Law/Surtain and I fully expect Kubiak to generate a running game with Ahman Green and turn Matt Schaub into a game manager at least, a playmaker at best.

Your thoughts?

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by LordHelmchen

Didn't place my bets yet for the weekend action. For tonight I have +53 ... though I'm historically really bad @ betting the over/under.

This year I try to stay away from parlays.

Haha I hear ya. Im actually on putting a few dollars on that parlay because they have bitten me in the ass before. I'm also trying something from the market and diversifying by betting on every game. Naturally I bet a touch more on my favorites and what I think is "free money".

[vancejohnson82]

I'm not sure about that Cowboys pick

I think we saw the best of the best of the Boys defense in the preseason and I'm waiting to see what they can do when the games count

I LOVE the STEELERS pick (-4.5)...that is a freebie

STAY AWAY from Tampa for a few weeks....i dont think anyone knows what to expect from them this year...last year their O-line was decimated by injury and they had a 3rd string QB in there...they left the defense on the field way too much and it was hard to get a read on them as to how good they are

other than that i agree with a great deal of the picks

[MileHighMagic]

I like the Saints and the under tonight.

Sunday:

CLE
HOU
STL
SEA

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by MileHighMagic

I like the Saints and the under tonight.

Sunday:

CLE
HOU
STL
SEA

Let's get deeper. WHY do you like those pics so we can share constructive criticism?

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by vancejohnson82

I'm not sure about that Cowboys pick

I think we saw the best of the best of the Boys defense in the preseason and I'm waiting to see what they can do when the games count

I LOVE the STEELERS pick (-4.5)...that is a freebie

STAY AWAY from Tampa for a few weeks....i dont think anyone knows what to expect from them this year...last year their O-line was decimated by injury and they had a 3rd string QB in there...they left the defense on the field way too much and it was hard to get a read on them as to how good they are

other than that i agree with a great deal of the picks

Really? I think the Cowboys, Eagles, Saints and Bears are the only teams that have a prayer at representing the NFC in the Superbowl.

I like the Cowboys because I think they have a veteran offense with leadership and an above average playcall. I REALLY like the Cowboys because I think Wade Phillips is having a wet dream with all the talent on their defense. I think he's going to turn Ware into Merriman and then some, I think their DL and the rest of their LBs are extremely talented. I think Newman and Roy Williams give Wade something he didnt even have in SD... a secondary with playmakers to work with.

[bfoflcommish]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

Glad we're generating some discussion. I'll tell you why I chose those teams and then let me know if you agree/disagree and your basis for your decisions please.

I think the Seahawks made great upgrades to their defense via draft/free agency and I see Tampa Bay as a former stout defense that has aged severely and lost key personnel. I see Seattle's offense healthy and hungry for the playoffs again. I see Tampa's offense desperate with major questions on the line, RB, WR and QB.

Seahwaks still have some questions on that o-line, will branch and Hackett step up? not impressed with thier D either, 6 is alot to give up week 1 with the team they had last year.

I don't exactly think much of Washington, though I think Campbell is talented and will continue growing, you cannot deny the Portis/Betts punch and a defense with the best safeties in the league and great coaching. Miami on the hand is another aging team with a first year coach. Ronnie Brown is in the doghouse. Apparently so is Chambers (trade rumors). Trent Green is stop gap at best. I think Miami is in the cellar this year.

Green is an upgrade from qb last year, Brown should be better (since he is actually healthy this week), Champers can beat Skins d.....Campbell is good, but I don't like thier wr's. Washington could very easily cover but I wouldn't ever trust my money on them


I LOVE Steven Jackson and the Rams offense. That being said, I think Delhomme had a poor year last year and is going to bounce back. Carolina's D is still a dominant force and the class of the NFC. I'm ready for them to punch the Rams offense in the mouth and move the ball with ease against St Louis's weak D.

This is one of those games where I have to go with home team..If it was in Carolina I would go Carolina...Jax will keep the d-line honest and get Holt, Bruce & mcmichael some time......Again..only because Rams are at home


As for the Ravens... simply put I can't take Cincinnati's defense seriously and think between the progression of Haloti Ngata, that defense is going to be too much for an offense line that lost a key player to free agency to handle.


I agree with Cincy defense, but I feel the same way about Ravens Offense.



A lot's being said about the turn around of the Raiders but until I see a few new faces on their offensive line I can't say that I buy it for a single second. Obviously the Lions have losing traditions of their own but their losing culture/attitude seems to have come to an end and I wouldn't be surprised to see them approach 8-8 while Oakland struggles to see 6 wins.

This is tough one here too...Radiers HAVE to be improved..don't they? They had a good d, while Kitna is Kitna and will try to force things a little too much. You know what Radiers d gets in facing Tatum Bell..couple fumbles or some non made 3rd downs late by tripping himself.

Raiders win......I THINK



Texans and Chiefs was hard for me to decide. On one hand, KC still has gonzo and LJ. On the other, their O line is in shambles. Houston's Johnson should abuse Law/Surtain and I fully expect Kubiak to generate a running game with Ahman Green and turn Matt Schaub into a game manager at least, a playmaker at best.


Not sold on that o-line in houston...I don't see Green doing much this season, and LJ even at half the carries will be good for a couple scores, which I think will be enough to beat Houston this week.

Your thoughts?

see above

[vancejohnson82]

I think people are underestimating the Giants this year and those games usually are 4 point, 3 point games

I'm just saying that i would stay away from it given some of the other choices out there

Although i didnt really get going last year until Week 8 on my picks

and I rode VY and the Titans to about $600

[bfoflcommish]

Plays I like the most


Cards +3
Pitt -4.5
Philly -3
Det/Oak over 40
indy/saints over 52.5

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by bfoflcommish

see above

I don't Seattle giving 6 is that much, especially considering it's a home game against what I feel is not only a scrub team, but the cellar of the NFC south. And you don't think Seattle's additions on defense improve that unit?

Green in KC was an upgrade over last year's Miami QB... Green in Miami post head trauma won't be an upgrade over last year's Miami QB. Ronnie Brown has no running room and is already in Cameron's doghouse.

Carolina/St Louis, I just don't think St Louis has done anything to take their team to the next level. Meanwhile I think Carolina has been at that next level and will roll over teams like St Louis on their way to the playoffs.

I also agree about the ravens offense.

Bleh, I'm not about to knock Tatum. He won several games single handedly with some lightning runs. He was everyone's hero when he carried Ray Lewis for five yards. A couple injuries later and everyone hates him. Henry is an obvious upgrade IMO, but Bell will play good football for the Lions.

[DeuceOfClub]

Great Idea for a thread. I wish we had a sub-forum for that so we don't have to blend all issues together.

Anyway, here are my "money makers" for week 1.

I usually avoid prime time game and almost never parlay.


Deuce's game of the week:
St Louis Rams (-1) over Carolina Panthers.

Other games to consider:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans. Under 38
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars. Under 38
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over Atlanta Falcons.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets. Under 41
Chicago Bears (+6) over San Diego Chargers.

[TheReverend]

Originally Posted by DeuceOfClub

Great Idea for a thread. I wish we had a sub-forum for that so we don't have to blend all issues together.

Anyway, here are my "money makers" for week 1.

I usually avoid prime time game and almost never parlay.


Deuce's game of the week:
St Louis Rams (-1) over Carolina Panthers.

Other games to consider:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans. Under 38
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars. Under 38
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over Atlanta Falcons.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets. Under 41
Chicago Bears (+6) over San Diego Chargers.

I figure we'll just take over this forum and post new threads week by week so it stays comprehensible.

Will you post your thought process leading to those bets so we can maintain generating discussion?

[DeuceOfClub]

I also have a question,

Does anyone know where I can find information about last years lines? (2002-2006)

[TheReverend]

Have you tried Google? I can't find any past lines on my sportsbook.

[RhymesayersDU]

As I stated in the other thread, I like:

Pittsburgh (-4.5)
St. Louis (-1.0)
Dallas (-6.0)

I wasn't going to bet tonight's game, but I'm kind of itching for some early action so I may put a little money on NO/INDY hitting the over.

[DeuceOfClub]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

Will you post your thought process leading to those bets so we can maintain generating discussion?

Sure!

St Louis Rams (-1) over Carolina Panthers.

The line for this game look very weak to me. The Rams defense got a lot better last year under new head-coach and I expect them to improve this year and despite a very mediocre preseason their offense is still good IMO. Steven Jackson and Bulger to Holt / Bruce can control the clock and score points.
On the other hand the Panthers look like a declining team. Other than Smith no one scares me in the lineup, their defense is still good (in the NFC) but not enough to take over a game.
Add the fact that it is Rams home opener and on turf and I just can’t understand how the Rams are not at least -3.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans. Under 38

I will avoid the spread in this game but will take the under.
Both teams are much different than last year and both coaches will be conservative trying not to lose the first game. Kubiak will put the ball in his ‘new toy’ hand’s Green while Herm will be Herm.
Both QBs are not scoring machine and both defenses might be good enough to slow each other.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars. Under 38

Once again I will go with Under 38 on this game (trendy pick for me).
The Jaguars defense is good enough to slow down whatever is left on the Titans offense, while Tennessee can focus on stopping Taylor/Jones with 8-9 in the box. Gerrard have almost no threats to work with.
Should be a hot and humid weather that will not help.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) over Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta problem are well documented. The coaching change in Atlanta will also help the #1 rush defense of last year to stop the ground game which look very anemic in preseason. Harrington to Horn just doesn’t sound dangerous.
The Vikings will rely heavily on the ground game and defense. If they can rattle Harrington they will sail for an easy win.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets. Under 41

Not much reasoning here, I just have a feeling of a low scoring, field position battle. Wouldn’t invest much here.

Chicago Bears (+6) over San Diego Chargers.

It will take the Chargers few weeks to adjust to the new coaches, the Bears defense is still very strong and I see them going after Rivers with multiply packages. Chicago can score in many ways against an unorganized, undisciplined Norv’s squad.
6 points is just too much IMO.

[LordHelmchen]

Originally Posted by TheReverend

Haha I hear ya. Im actually on putting a few dollars on that parlay because they have bitten me in the ass before. I'm also trying something from the market and diversifying by betting on every game. Naturally I bet a touch more on my favorites and what I think is "free money".

First time I bet was 2 seasons ago. I did ok on spreads, bad on over/under and really well on player bets (yards, completions etc., I really like those, but here nobody seems to play them...). Made 10 single bets every week and hit about 60-70 %, so around midway of the season I was at ~400. Then someone here hit pretty big on a parlay and I was tempted. Then I was really close on some parlays and tried them every week from then on. Well, at the end of the season, I had nothing

[ak1971]

I hit a huge parlay a couple years back Indy v StL was my last game (this is the one StL went up like 17pts in the first quarter) I figure my luck run out after that one so I limit them to a very very small portion of my bankroll. They sure are a lot of fun when you hit though

[DenverBroncosJM]

Are you guys using WSEX? I use Bodog well did all last season but heard they are having major issues.

Also what is the safest means for deposit at WSEX?

My Pick of the Week:

Minn -3 over Atlanta

This just seems like a no brainer. From the QB in Atlanta to Minns defense seems like easy money.

[RhymesayersDU]

Originally Posted by DenverBroncosJM

Are you guys using WSEX? I use Bodog well did all last season but heard they are having major issues.

Also what is the safest means for deposit at WSEX?

My Pick of the Week:

Minn -3 over Atlanta

This just seems like a no brainer. From the QB in Atlanta to Minns defense seems like easy money.

I use WSEX, and I just use my credit card to deposit. Never had an issue. Just deposited a bit a few minutes ago actually.

[TheReverend]

1-0

15 more to go.

Choo-choo!