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Old 12-03-2013, 11:36 AM   #1
Kaylore
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Default AFC contender stats through 12 games.

We're at the final four game stretch of the season. There are no more BYE weeks. The film is out and there is very little to hide with scheme. The stats are going to give a decent picture of what teams are.

Let's look at some:

Broncos 10-2
Total offense: 1st
Points: 1st
Passing: 1st
Rushing: 13th
Give/Take: -4 (bottom third of the league)

Total Defense: 27th
Points: 26th
Passing: 29th
Rushing: 7th

Two ways to look at this. One is the defense is bad. We give up a lot of points and a lot of passing yards. Losing Elvis Dumervil for the season and the injuries and suspension of Von Miller really did a number on our defense. I also think that we are 10-2 with a -4 turnover ratio speaks to some of this - but not all. Yes, teams have to pass more on us to keep up. Yes, we've had some turnovers. But at the end of the day, we are what we are. I think if we can get that number in the teens - especially the scoring part, we can be good enough to win a championship. But until then, don't hold your breath.

Chiefs
Total offense: 16th
Points: 9th
Passing: 24th
Rushing: 11th
Give/Take: +14 (league best. Next closest in conference is New England at +8)

Total Defense: 21st
Points: 4th
Passing: 21st
Rushing: 21st

How the mighty have fallen. The Chiefs are a wild card team and may only win 1 or 2 more games. I fully expect their final games to even out as they continue to play starting QB's. They have given up 30+ points the last several games. Their special teams and defense has continued to help them inflate what is still a mediocre offense with little talent. The Chiefs are who we thought they were. Their record is indicative of facing bad teams and their turnover margin - remember they were barely beating many of those teams at home.

Patriots

Total offense: 9th
Points: 6th
Passing: 10th
Rushing: 12th
Give/Take: +8 (2nd best in AFC)

Total Defense: 20th
Points: 10th
Passing: 10th
Rushing: 31st

The Patriots were all set up to be one of the most balanced teams going into the playoffs. Then their injuries on defense really set them back. They can't stop the run and have been outscored in the first half of the last few games by 50 points. Still, they are a big threat and are balanced enough to do damage and go all the way in a very weak AFC.

Bengals

Total offense: 12th
Points: 12th
Passing: 11th
Rushing: 18th
Give/Take: +1

Total Defense: 6th
Points: 5th
Passing: 8th
Rushing: 8th

The Bengals losing Atkins was a huge blow - similar to the Patriots losing Wilfork Cottonspork. They do have all the elements to win their division, though with a two game lead and four games to play. They are a very underrated team.

Colts

Total offense: 20th
Points: 12th
Passing: 14th
Rushing: 20th
Give/Take: +6

Total Defense: 22nd
Points: 12th
Passing: 17th
Rushing: 28th

If there's one team that isn't looking so hot it is the Colts. Andrew Luck has leveled off quite a bit. And while still a good player, he hasn't taken the step that other elites do in their second year (Manning, Brady, and even Russel Wilson). Obviously losing Reggie Wayne was a huge part of that. But so was trading for a recently benched Trent Richardson. Still, the Ravens looked similar last year and got hot at the right time. They can beat anyone, but they can also lose to anyone and look like they have lost some of their mojo.

Seahawks

Total offense: 11th
Points: 2nd
Passing: 22nd
Rushing: 3rd
Give/Take: +12

Total Defense: 1st
Points: 2nd
Passing: 1st
Rushing: 13th

I wanted to throw this out there for comparison. The Seahawks are a total juggernaut. Everything is pretty much where you want it. And don't be fooled by Wilson's meager passing yardage. They run the ball a lot because they have a lead and Wilson himself will take off at a moment's notice. He's like a rich man's Jake Plummer. And like Plummer his teammates love him. If we make it to the Super Bowl, it is probably going to be the Seahawks. The only thing that gives me hope is their issues in the secondary and they'll have to play on a neutral field.

I could have put up numbers for the Panthers and Saints as well, but I wanted to focus on probably AFC opponents we will see in the playoffs.

We can get where we need to, but some things need to improve. We need to play better pass defense. DRC coming back will make a HUGE difference. Also we need to really work on turnovers. We've been trying all year but it just isn't happening. If we can get those things up, we have a decent shot to go all the way. Especially if we have home field.

Last edited by Kaylore; 12-03-2013 at 12:08 PM..
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:44 AM   #2
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Denver needs 3 things to win it: A) Manning on his game and B) give up yards but not points defensive play and lastly C) turnovers.

If Manning is playing out of his mind, he can overcome B and C. But I wouldn't expect that level of play going forward.

Seattle is the team best equipped to handle us, if both teams get that far.

I think a cold SB against a red hot Seahawks team would be very difficult to overcome.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:28 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Atwater His Ass View Post
Denver needs 3 things to win it: A) Manning on his game and B) give up yards but not points defensive play and lastly C) turnovers.

If Manning is playing out of his mind, he can overcome B and C. But I wouldn't expect that level of play going forward.

Seattle is the team best equipped to handle us, if both teams get that far.

I think a cold SB against a red hot Seahawks team would be very difficult to overcome.
Is Seattle a really cold, windy snowy place?
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:32 PM   #4
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Is Seattle a really cold, windy snowy place?
It stands to reason that wind and cold would impact us worse than them. Broncos are a passing team, and passing is most impacted by bad weather. They win with defense and rushing.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:42 PM   #5
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It stands to reason that wind and cold would impact us worse than them. Broncos are a passing team, and passing is most impacted by bad weather. They win with defense and rushing.
We're fairly decent against the run, albeit not sure how that changes with Vick gone. Last I checked, we run the ball pretty well and Ball seems to be, well, turning the corner and bit... he runs well and didn't fumble last week...

I actually fear a match-up with out pass D versus a Seattle team than the Patriots... and IF we are healthly, and IF we make it to the Show, I like our Offense man for man over any other team.. again, when healthy.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:48 PM   #6
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It stands to reason that wind and cold would impact us worse than them. Broncos are a passing team, and passing is most impacted by bad weather. They win with defense and rushing.
We can run too, ya know.

Also, last years epically cold Ravens game was an aerial assualt by both teams.
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Old 12-03-2013, 01:05 PM   #7
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We can run too, ya know.
We can. It's just not our bread and butter. And they do it better (3rd vs. 13th in ypg). And we only average 3.9/carry, 2nd worst among the top 20 rushing teams (they're at 4.4).

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Also, last years epically cold Ravens game was an aerial assualt by both teams.
Fair point. I think the wind is perhaps a bigger issue. Let's just hope for good weather in North Jersey regardless!
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Old 12-03-2013, 01:09 PM   #8
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The loss of Kevin Vickerson (and Rahim Moore) may prove to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

The Broncos gave up 6.4 yards per rush against KC last week, after largely having shut down the Chiefs 2 weeks prior.

Sylvester Williams was blown back 4 yards into the endzone on a goal-line stand. He's so easy to knock off the ball, you would think he weights a buck fifty. Mitch Unrein isn't much of an upgrade over Williams.

Vickerson was the anchor of the Broncos rush defense. Without him, it will be significantly tougher to win an SB.
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Old 12-03-2013, 04:08 PM   #9
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Is Seattle a really cold, windy snowy place?
How about New Jersey?
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:46 AM   #10
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Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:47 AM   #11
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Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
Sweet Baby Jebus.

I knew it was bad, but come on.
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Old 12-03-2013, 07:08 PM   #12
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Sweet Baby Jebus.

I knew it was bad, but come on.
going into this last game vs. Chiefs, the Broncos had surrendered 117 points off turnovers.....
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:48 AM   #13
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Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
I totally agree. Unfortunately we've turned the ball over all year long. It's who we are at this point. I hope we can just keep the number down a bit during the playoffs.
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Old 12-03-2013, 03:52 PM   #14
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I totally agree. Unfortunately we've turned the ball over all year long. It's who we are at this point. I hope we can just keep the number down a bit during the playoffs.
Shoot, at this point, we've turned the ball over for TWO years consistently....
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Old 12-03-2013, 04:10 PM   #15
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Shoot, at this point, we've turned the ball over for TWO years consistently....
Anyone know if we've had a 3 game stretch of limiting our TOs...
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Old 12-03-2013, 04:06 PM   #16
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Just wanted to put out this little stat. We've given up 317 points on the season. Over 100 of those points have been off of turnovers.

If we don't turn the ball over we will win.
Ouch. All I know is we'll be in the postseason. Lord knows how it will turn out.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:48 AM   #17
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Our Points allowed are at least slightly skewed due to defensive/special teams TD's and those turnovers you mentioned. Denver has given up 10+ points in several games due to turnovers and special teams. Those are far and away the weakness of the team....less so the defense.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:49 AM   #18
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Out of curiosity, whats the broncos D average starting FP this year? It seems we give up a lot of turnovers in our own territory. Like even last week, looking at the box score, you'd assume 28 pts is a lot to give up. But then when you realize 7 were on a kickoff return and another 7 on a very short field, it doesnt look as bad.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:52 AM   #19
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KC dropping passes left and right made them look better too as well though.
Alex Smith was actually on target on almost every throw.

At least we didn't fumble. Maybe it is the start of a trend.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:56 AM   #20
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The AFC really does seem wide open. Hopefully its the Broncos with the hot hand this year.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:58 AM   #21
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Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:07 PM   #22
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Seahawks are just better than everybody. Don't think anyone will beat them.
Eh, any given sunday. Though they'll be hard to beat at home. On the road they are a diff team.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:14 PM   #23
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On the road they are a diff team.
5-1
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:16 PM   #24
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5-1
That is technically different than 6-0.
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Old 12-03-2013, 12:22 PM   #25
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5-1
Yeah, barely sneaking by Tennessee, tampa bay, Atl, Texans, Stl. And losing to Indy.
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