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Old 11-15-2013, 11:11 AM   #1
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Default Deconstructing Andy Reid's post-bye record

Andy Reid has been nearly perfect in games after a bye. I did some research and decided to dig deeper following a story here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...chiefs-broncos

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Reid is on the road this week, but during his rise to this gaudy win total, he's been at home for 11 of his 14 matchups. That makes winning much easier.
I decided to break down each game and look at the actual opponents that the Eagles had to play. Reid is a good coach and I figured in the NFC East especially he probably had to go through some tough opponents, right?

Well not really...

1999, when the Bye could would come anytime after weeks 1-16, the Eagles had a super late BYE and faced a 13-3 Rams team resting their starters week 16. Warner was pulled before the half. The Eagles barely won. 31-38

2000 they got a 4-12 Bengals team at home. They won modestly: 16-7.

2001 a declining 7-9 Giants team in Fassel's last hurrah. It was a rare post-bye road game, and a division rival and they barely beat the Giants 10-9.

2002 The Eagles finally soundly beat a 12-4 Buccs team that would eventually go on to win the Super Bowl 20-10! Both were playoff teams and they would meet later...where the Buccs destroyed them by 17 points. Good win, though.

2003 they go on the road and beat 6-10 Bills team 23-13. We're right in the peak of McNabb's career at this point, by the way.

2004 Reid brings in a beat up (missing nine starters) the eventual 7-9 Panthers squad. At the time the Panthers had only 1 win and would lose their next three. Eagles win soundly 30-8. The Panthers would get a bunch of guys back from injury later in the season and go on a nice run, but it was too little too late.

2005 a somewhat decent 9-7 Chargers team would go to Philly and lost 20-17 Reid's Eagles were 6-10 at this time, so this qualifies as a good win, even if it's marginal.

2006 a 5-11 Redskins team would come in and lose 27-3.

2007 the last of only three road games for Andy Reid has him going to the Meadowlands to face a 4-12 Jets team and wining 16-9.

2008 The eventual 11-5 Falcons would go to Philly and lose 27-14. This was Matt Ryan's rookie season and his first real road test. He turned the ball over in this game. A Good team win, though.

2009 a very bad 3-13 Buccaneers would come in and lose 14-33.

2010 - This is interesting. A 10-6 Colts team (both teams would finish 10-6) would go on the road and lose, barely, 26-24. A good win against relatively equal teams.

2011 the 8-8 Dallas Cowboys would lose 34-7

2012 the 13-3 Falcons would had Reid his first post-bye week loss by a very large margin: 17-30.

Out of his 14 post-bye week games, only 3 were on the road. All three road games were against opponents with losing records. In fact of his 14 games, only 5 were against teams with records above .500.

That's not to totally take away from some good wins against the Colts, eventual SB Buccs. But the Falcons had a rookie QB and the Rams were resting their starters in a meaningless game at the end of the season.

So like the Chiefs schedule, Reid's BYE week success is at least partially a product of sheer luck. He's played almost every game after the bye at home and been able to face terrible opponents.

Reid is a good coach. He is 139-93-1 and his winning percentage has him in the top 40 all time. His Bye week record is skewed by circumstance, though.
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Old 11-15-2013, 11:31 AM   #2
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Kahn's is the Superior!

As long as we protect the ball and Manning can finish the game (or at least be up enough that they can sit him at half time) I feel more at ease about this game than I did about going on the road and playing SD.

Divisional games are hard but kFc has enough weaknesses in key areas that we can exploit them on both sides of the ball and win this in convincing fashion!

FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION!

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Old 11-15-2013, 11:52 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
Andy Reid has been nearly perfect in games after a bye. I did some research and decided to dig deeper following a story here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...chiefs-broncos



I decided to break down each game and look at the actual opponents that the Eagles had to play. Reid is a good coach and I figured in the NFC East especially he probably had to go through some tough opponents, right?
Nicely done. It looks like you put a lot of time into trying to discredit Reid's post bye week record.

So in 14 years Reid has only faced 5 good teams in the week immediately following the bye. ...

... and he beat 4 of them.

Yeah, that sucks.
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:21 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
Nicely done. It looks like you put a lot of time into trying to discredit Reid's post bye week record.

So in 14 years Reid has only faced 5 good teams in the week immediately following the bye. ...

... and he beat 4 of them.

Yeah, that sucks.
You forgot to add, "at home." As in: So in 14 years Reid has only faced 5 good teams in the week immediately following the bye. ...

... and he beat 4 of them at home."
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:30 PM   #5
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You forgot to add, "at home." As in: So in 14 years Reid has only faced 5 good teams in the week immediately following the bye. ...

... and he beat 4 of them at home."
That's still a pretty good record. Most teams don't win 80% of their home games against teams with winning records. Most teams don't win 80% of their home games, period. A 6-2 home record would still only be 75%. But Reid's teams have beaten 80% of teams with winning records (immediately following the bye).
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Old 11-15-2013, 06:04 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
Nicely done. It looks like you put a lot of time into trying to discredit Reid's post bye week record.

So in 14 years Reid has only faced 5 good teams in the week immediately following the bye. ...

... and he beat 4 of them.

Yeah, that sucks.
He never said it sucks...he merely pointed out that while his record is stellar after a bye week, it's not like it was built on beating the elite teams in the NFL, much like your current 9-0 record against 3rd string QB's and average teams and it definitely doesn't guarantee he'll win this coming Sunday.
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Old 11-15-2013, 07:46 PM   #7
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He never said it sucks...he merely pointed out that while his record is stellar after a bye week, it's not like it was built on beating the elite teams in the NFL, much like your current 9-0 record against 3rd string QB's and average teams and it definitely doesn't guarantee he'll win this coming Sunday.
Oh, I got his point. It's a given that over a 14 year period some of those teams would be above .500 and some would be below. It's also highly unlikely that there would be exactly 7 of each.

So, in this case 5 teams ended up with winning records, 1 team was 8-8, 2 teams would have been 8-8 had they not lost to the Eagles (2001 and 2004), and 6 of the 14 teams were what you would call "bad."

I still think it is pretty impressive that his teams beat every bad and mediocre team no matter how bad the Eagles were that particular year and he beat 4 out of the 5 good teams, even if most of the games were at home. You need to beat the teams you should beat and his teams have done that.

Of course, none of this will have much bearing on this Sunday's game, but his track record is still impressive.
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Old 11-15-2013, 11:55 AM   #8
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Whew! Thanks for clarifying, is was getting a little nervous in regards to that gaudy number Queef fans have been spouting off about.

Last edited by Greatspirits; 11-15-2013 at 11:59 AM..
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:01 PM   #9
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I am sure that REID has thrown in a few wrinkles during the bye, when his players were not blowing weed of course.

I am going to see if they have the balls to try to throw in the 5-10 yard down field range. Teams have been inching up on their flat passes and sniffing out their screens they need to spread out the D's a little more. I expect Smith to just load up and CiDtno one at least once or twice Sunday night. Even if he throws it where no one is. Then at least Denver would have to account for it and give Charles more room to get his 3.7 YPC.
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:35 PM   #10
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But how much weight does Andy Reid gain during the bye week?
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:42 PM   #11
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But how much weight does Andy Reid gain during the bye week?
I see what you did there. You are calling Reid "fat," right?

So the Chiefs will lose to Denver because their coach is fat.

i think I'm beginning to understand Donkey logic, now.
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:58 PM   #12
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I see what you did there. You are calling Reid "fat," right?

So the Chiefs will lose to Denver because their coach is fat.

i think I'm beginning to understand Donkey logic, now.
I think what you are doing is taking the internet too seriously.
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Old 11-15-2013, 04:36 PM   #13
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I think what you are doing is taking the internet too seriously.
I knew you were just joking. But You lobbed it right over the plate. You can't expect a Chiefs fan not to take a swing at it can you?
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Old 11-15-2013, 01:06 PM   #14
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i think I'm beginning to understand Donkey logic, now.
Donkeys know a fat ass when they see one.
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:50 PM   #15
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Interesting analysis. My main rebuttal is that you could probably use the same logic to show that almost all teams that have good records have had circumstances go their way a little bit.

So you're right - having a great post-bye record doesn't necessarily mean that the Chiefs will win. But it does indicate that Reid tends to do better after byes than during any other old game.
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Old 11-15-2013, 12:50 PM   #16
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Old 11-15-2013, 01:02 PM   #17
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Topeka Roy has come to troll and troll hard.
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Old 11-15-2013, 01:11 PM   #18
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Topeka Roy has come to troll and troll hard.
What else would you expect from a bears fan?
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Old 11-15-2013, 04:40 PM   #19
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What else would you expect from a bears fan?
I resent that remark.





I don't deny it, I just resent it.
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Old 11-15-2013, 04:38 PM   #20
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Topeka Roy has come to troll and troll hard.
So stating the truth is "trolling," now? A little good natured ribbing ("Donkey Logic") is trolling?

Man, you guys are sensitive!
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Old 11-15-2013, 04:44 PM   #21
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Wow! Thanks for all that work. We're going to be the most informed fans on the planet when this game finally gets here. I'm really tired of waiting.
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Old 11-15-2013, 06:06 PM   #22
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andy gives his entire team the whole week off. They reward him with a winning effort fueld by a renewed vigor for football.
no magic, just sensable human dynamics.
reid is still a fat tub of goo who only knows the passing game.his current team has yet to beat an opponent with a winning record and on monday that will still be true.
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Old 11-15-2013, 10:21 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHEF LUIGI View Post
andy gives his entire team the whole week off. They reward him with a winning effort fueld by a renewed vigor for football.
no magic, just sensable human dynamics.
reid is still a fat tub of goo who only knows the passing game.his current team has yet to beat an opponent with a winning record and on monday that will still be true.
I think that they should test Big Andy Reid before the game. If he can't run a 40, he shouldn't be allowed to coach...

Am serious. If not run 40 before the games, then Big him sit for a week and try agains when healthy and can 40.

(Err, or something like that.)
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Old 11-16-2013, 12:52 AM   #24
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I think that they should test Big Andy Reid before the game. If he can't run a 40, he shouldn't be allowed to coach...

Am serious. If not run 40 before the games, then Big him sit for a week and try agains when healthy and can 40.

(Err, or something like that.)

TFTC?


Whatever happened to good ol' TFTP? Was in Dallas the last time I remember seeing the name Montrae Holland.
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Old 11-16-2013, 12:45 AM   #25
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13-1 is a good record in the NFL any way you look at it. They can only play the games scheduled and they beat two eventual Super Bowl Champs, several playoff teams, John Fox, and Peyton Manning.
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