The Orange Mane -  a Denver Broncos Fan Community  

Go Back   The Orange Mane - a Denver Broncos Fan Community > Orange Mane Discussion > Orange Mane Central Discussion
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Chat Room Mark Forums Read



Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-13-2012, 02:43 PM   #1
Rock Chalk
Cheeky Bastards
 
Rock Chalk's Avatar
 
Laus Deo

Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: The Backside of the Internet
Posts: 29,750

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Chris Harris
Default Denver's Efficiency

For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.
Rock Chalk is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Old 11-13-2012, 02:44 PM   #2
TheReverend
Permanent Facepalm
 
TheReverend's Avatar
 
Not. Too. Shabby.

Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 37,494

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Mike Shanahan
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Chalk View Post
Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.
TheReverend is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 03:06 PM   #3
Rock Chalk
Cheeky Bastards
 
Rock Chalk's Avatar
 
Laus Deo

Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: The Backside of the Internet
Posts: 29,750

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Chris Harris
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheReverend View Post
My apologies Patrick. I know you aren't an idiot but you have to throw these disclaimers on the internet.

Rock Chalk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 06:17 PM   #4
broncosteven
Kranz Dictum
 
broncosteven's Avatar
 
Juwan The Headless Thompson Gunner!

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Tranquility Base
Posts: 36,433

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Juwan Thompson
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheReverend View Post
F n G Douchenozzle!

Wasn't their also something about stabbing people through the iNteRNEts?

I miss the old Alec
broncosteven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 02:52 PM   #5
jerseyboiler120
Guest
 

Posts: n/a
Default

The overall balance has been great to see developing over the past month.Don't recall quickly the last time we had back-to-back games with kick/punt returns for TD.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 03:56 PM   #6
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock Chalk View Post
For you stat geeks out there, Football Outsiders has released their Week 10 rankings and Denver moves back into first place.

These are not so much a power rankings as much as they are a predictor of future success based on past performance.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...0-dvoa-ratings

Denver is the only team with a top 10 Offense, Defense an Special Teams. This is all opponent adjusted measuring and its based of every single play of the year. Obviously, this is not the end all be all of statistics but I think they do a good job of trying to capture, from a purely statistical standpoint, the strength of each team. Given a neutral field and all things being equal, Denver should be able to beat everyone.

They have a substantial lead (relatively) over #2 Patriots. In fact, #6 San Francisco is closer to #2 Patriots than the Patriots are to Denver.

For those not familiar, DVOA is a measure of each team's strengths on offense, defense and special teams that is opponent adjusted. So stupid irrelevant stats like ypg and ppg are adjusted based on the offenses and defenses you played against and what it says is Denver performs much better against the competition they have faced than other teams have.

Margin of Victory plays a big part in this, so ass kickings (like that we gave to Carolina) carry more weight, but its comparative. (i.e. Denver is beating people by an average of 5 more points than other teams are beating those teams...for example) It also accounts for "garbage time" points and yards. So, teams scoring garbage time points when the defense is in prevent mode to just try and run clock are counted but have MUCH less weight than "normal" time.

New England's offense is VERY good. But their defense is slightly below average. Meanwhile, Denvers offense is very good and their defense is very good (4th overall in both) and their Special Teams is about on par with New England (8th to 7th, but having the same rating rounded to a single decimal).

Keep in mind, no statistical model is going to be 100% accurate on predicting future games, but this one is arguably as good as it gets.
Wonderful web site, that one gets bookmarked.
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 05:44 PM   #7
Bronco Boy
Avid Ambien Abuser
 
Bronco Boy's Avatar
 
Eric Fischer: Catholic Priest

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: New York. **** you too.
Posts: 2,030

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Lamin Barrow
Default

They now have us at a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. I like those odds.
Bronco Boy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 06:42 PM   #8
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Peyton Manning, ranked #1 has a DYAR of 1,112

Matt Cassel, ranked #32 has a DYAR of - 480

Now there is a player spread for ya.
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 06:52 PM   #9
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Denver went from #15 on special teams last week to #8 this week

According to this web site we are #4 on defense / #4 on offense / #8 on special teams

As I was saying on the game day thread - COMPLETE TEAM.

So much fun being a Bronco fan after what we endured the last decade.

Feels like 1996 again. No Jacksonvilles, Por Favor
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 06:59 PM   #10
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:40 PM   #11
orangeatheist
Champion of the Godless
 
orangeatheist's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,160
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by baja View Post
Denver has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs (only team with a better chance is Houston at 100%)

SD has a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs

Raiders have a 2.1 % chance of making the playoffs

KC has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs
As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..." Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO!
orangeatheist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:47 PM   #12
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by orangeatheist View Post
As I started reading down that list I got as far as "...have a 2.1 % chance..." and started giggling knowing what was coming! And I wasn't disappointed. "...a 0.0 % chance..." Zero POINT zero! No statistical chance whatsoever! Point ZERO!
and that after a fair game against Pittsburg in Pittsburg. KC had a chance to win in overtime but Cassel fixed that with an INT.

Did you watch the game. They are so bad I almost feel sorry for the fan base, heck I do feel bad for them. Nobody should have to endure so much fail for so long.
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:03 PM   #13
Bacchus
Guest
 

Posts: n/a
Default

and people negatively repped me for my Broncos are the best team in the NFL thread!!! LMAO!! I want my rep points back!!!!!
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:07 PM   #14
Bacchus
Guest
 

Posts: n/a
Default

What's funny abotu the rankings is the "fumble luck". If you do not recover fumbles you actually move up in the rankings. It does make sense but is weird.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:09 PM   #15
Bacchus
Guest
 

Posts: n/a
Default

The Colts are 6-3 and rated #27?
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:19 PM   #16
TonyR
Franchise Poster
 
TonyR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Mid-Atlantic
Posts: 19,306
Default

Sagarin has us at #2 behind Houston.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl12.htm
TonyR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:21 PM   #17
TonyR
Franchise Poster
 
TonyR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Mid-Atlantic
Posts: 19,306
Default

Advanced NFL Stats has us at #1 ahead of Houston.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...s-week-11.html

Quote:
The equation here is pretty simple. Take a solid defense. Add Peyton Manning. You get a team that's very hard to beat.
TonyR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:22 PM   #18
Bacchus
Guest
 

Posts: n/a
Default

So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:32 PM   #19
scorpio
Cubicle Pimp
 
scorpio's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,502
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bacchus View Post
So all the computer rankings have Denver at #1 or #2 while the humans have Denver at #5 and higher.
Billick at Fox Sports has us #2

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings
scorpio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:37 PM   #20
bronco militia
OMG...this is horrible!
 
bronco militia's Avatar
 
THE GREATEST

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: colorado springs, co
Posts: 25,130
Default

hopefully this means we get a good bowl game
bronco militia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 07:38 PM   #21
baja
Happy camper
 
baja's Avatar
 
Sweet

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: in the present moment
Posts: 60,162

Adopt-a-Bronco:
Ware
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bronco militia View Post
hopefully this means we get a good bowl game
It will be Super.
baja is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 01:11 PM.


Denver Broncos