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Old 04-29-2013, 01:37 AM   #1
Mat'hir Uth Gan
Is It Draft Day Yet?

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 5,201
Default 2013 Mock Draft Game Final Scores

All the calculations and number crunching can be found in this thread:


Total Franchise Value (TFV) consists of:

1. Real NFL Draft Accuracy
2. Inherent Selection Value
3. Raw(Actual) Selection Value
4. Free Agency Value


As the name suggests, each selection is compared to the real NFL draft results to see where the player's true draft value was. The criteria is arbitrary, but both extremely fair and quite simple:

Selections 1-25, can be up to 5 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 26-75, can be up to 10 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 75-150, can be up to 15 draft slots off to receive positive value.
Selections 151+, can be up to 20 draft slots off to receive positive value.

The thinking obviously being that it's easier to identify the better talents in the draft and thus the penalty range for missing on those easier to identify talents is greater. Towards the end of the draft, you can be off by a half round and still get credit for a value selection, the talent is much harder to identify and grade. For this, earlier selections have more value because they are easier to accurately forecast, which keeps GMs from wanting to just trade down and always stockpile.

Each individual selection is checked and marked red if it fails to be an accurate value. These red selections are not counted in the number tally for the Inherent Selection Value. The last 20 selections in the 7th Round are at a disadvantage. If the player is not selected by the end of the NFL draft, the selection is considered inaccurate for bonus point consideration, though for the draft accuracy rankings, those inaccurate selections are just omitted altogether, meaning your accuracy percentage will be based on all your other selections. This is for a seperate Top 32 ranking based solely on Draft Value Accuracy. It is not the listing of whom won the game, but it is the listing of the top GMs in terms of accurately forecasting player draft value.


For purposes of a game like this in which trading is a key factor, you have to maintain equal opportunity between stock piling mid/late round selections versus a limited number of earlier selections. In short, the 1st Overall selection must have some inherent value to make it just as enticing as trading back for multiple selections, or else everyone would always trade. Thus, we have Inherent Selection Value. This is the chart:

1st Round         1-10, 11-20, 21-32        100, 90, 80
2nd Round        33-42, 43-52, 53-64        75, 70, 65
3rd Round        65-74, 75-84, 85-97        60, 55, 50
4th Round        98-115, 116-133            45, 40
5th Round        134-150, 151-168           35, 30
6th Round        169-187, 188-206           25, 20
7th Round        207-230, 231-254           15, 10
This is not a trade value chart, this is an inherent value chart for purposes of grading this game. As you can see, a Top 10 selection has an inherent value of +100 points. Simply selecting a player that is within the quality draft range nets the GM the 100 points. If you use poor draft value, and draft someone that really gets selected at pick #20, you do not get the 100 points. Thus, since it is easier to predict within 5 draft slots the #1 Overall selection, it's almost a guaranteed 100 point value. As opposed to trading back for multiple 2nd round selections, where the inherent value is only 65-75 points, but you have to accurately draft a player within 10 selections, so that's much harder to do. To win the game, you need the most points.

Thus, a cocky GM might feel comfortable trading the sure thing early selection for more later selections because if he drafts accurately on all of those picks, he has a good chance to earn more points than he would staying at #1 Overall. But there's a lot of risk, and as this game shows, those with the most picks did not always fare the best. So, by using inherent values, the integrity and desireabilty of early round selections are maintained, while the desire to just trade back and accumulate a massive amount of selections is checked.

As mentioned earlier, the final 20 selections in the 7th Round, if the player is not picked in the real NFL draft, receive no inherent value points. It just makes these last few selections even less attractive, though if you still nail a sleeper, it's big points.


This is easy, it's simply the difference, positive or negative, for each selection between where they were drafted in the Mock Draft and where they were drafted in the real NFL draft. And then all those values are added together for a score.

This is also why Inherent values were needed as a great selection at #1 Overall that really went #1 Overall would get you zero points. You wouldn't lose any, you wouldn't gain any. But with the inherent value, now you would get 100 points and the selection has great value again.

Thus, Raw Value is really a measure of reaches and steals. Inherent Value is what rewards draft accuracy. Together I think they measure a GM's competency in the draft game.


This is like extra credit after an exam. If you win a bid on a player in Free Agency and he gets drafted, you get points. Specifically, since this draft had 254 selections, all Free Agents are assigned #255. Thus, if a Free Agent in our game was actually drafted at #200 in the NFL draft, you would get 55 points added to your score (255-200 = 55). This year, we had 29 Free Agents that actually were drafted by the NFL. That's a lot of bonus points. If you want to win this game, you'd probably better participate in the Free Agency Round next year.


1.    +657    Cleveland          Drunken.Broncoholic 
2.    +579    Kansas City        Conklin
3.    +487    Tennessee          Lycan
4.    +460    Cincinnati         Requiem/MUG
5.    +423    Miami              Phibacka31/SouthStndJunkie
6.    +386    Indianapolis       Mediator12
7.    +345    Philadelphia       Arkie
8.    +344    St. Louis          Rohirrim
9.    +308    Minnesota          jebures
10.   +292    New Orleans        Drek
11.   +291    Detroit            DBroncos4life
12.   +240    Green Bay          srphoenix
13.   +214    Arizona            TheReverend
14.   +211    Houston            24champ/Requiem
15.   +205    NY Giants          BroncoMan4ever
16.   +183    New England        eddie mac
17.   +169    Tampa Bay          Traveler
18.   +76     Oakland            CBF1
19.   +63     Jacksonville       ColoradoBuff
20.   +43     Carolina           BroncoInferno
21.   +26     Baltimore          Bmore Manning
22.   - 3     Dallas             NickStixx
23.   -16     Chicago            SoDak Bronco
24.   -31     NY Jets            MrPeepers
25.   -37     San Diego          JCMElway
26.   -42     Pittsburgh         BowlenBall
27.   -109    Buffalo            BroncosfanGuy
28.   -162    Seattle            socalorado
29.   -175    Atlanta            ludo21
30.   -203    Washington         Shananahan
31.   -205    Denver             GoHAM/schaaf
32.   -274    San Francisco      DENVERDUI55

Last edited by Mat'hir Uth Gan; 04-29-2013 at 02:05 AM..
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