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Old 11-11-2013, 01:26 PM   #47
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Champ Bailey

Originally Posted by bpc View Post
Last game, Denver won 38-3. Major changes since then: Clady being knocked out for the season, Champ being knocked out most of this season and the Chiefs acquisition of Alex Smith and then feasting on a last place schedule playing virtually nobody.

I'll concede that the gap will be closed by 10 pts or so based on Denver's injuries and being banged up plus Smith being a better game manager than Brady Quinn was, however not by much. I think KC will score in the 13-17 pt range. I think Denver will score in the 34-38 pt range.

They have an opportunistic defense which will probably help their offense put 3-7 pts on the board. That's about as much as they should expect. We gashed them last game at Mile High w/ 172 yds rushing. We have virtually the same running backs, talent wise, in tow. Lance Ball hit these guys up for around 70 yds and a TD. Knowshon had around 45 yds and a TD. Decker and Thomas both netted 7 catches a piece and really couldn't be covered. Their CB's couldn't stop us then and with the ugly film i've seen the past few weeks vs. Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, not much has changed on that front vs an improved pass rush. They won't be able to match up with Thomas, Decker, now Welker and Julius Thomas. I imagine we'll see more passes out of the backfield and screens to Knowshon and the WR's as KC will try to blitz and T off on a hobbled Manning.

On offense, KC is going to run a bunch of draws and screens. Denver is going to have to be choosey about when they blitz to not give up easy yardage to these guys. Honestly, I don't think we really need to blitz. I'd be more than happy running a 4-3, letting our front line get after it and making Alex Smith beat coverage all day... FYI, he won't be able to do it and they will be forced into a punt fest. On the draws, its going to be huge that we get penetration to force Charles to outrun Trevathan, Woodyard, and Irvin. That also won't happen. Charles managed 14 carries for 52 yds last game.

Denver holds all the keys to this game even with us spotting the chiefs a few all-pro injuries.

I like Denver 37 or 38 pts to around 17 for the Chops.
Perfect analysis.
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