Actually, a more accurate statistically analysis would have to try and replicate the circumstances you are trying to predict; i.e. DENVER AT HOME AND NE AT AWAY GAMES. As a statistician he knows this is important. As a football fan he knows this is very important. As a football fan with an understanding of statistics, he knows this is CRITICAL. Look at any team's stats away and at home. It is highly unlikely that they are consistent. The game planning is different, the strategy is different, and the effects of the location are different. So what do we know here that is relevant?
1. It is harder to rush away from home because timing is affected by noise
Advantage Broncos in rushing attack and rushing D
So how does the return of the players affect that? He would have to provide that data.
2. TB is marginally good away from home this yr. The injuries in this case are irrelevant because all we are talking about is players who have returned and made a difference. So what are Brady's stats away from home? You don't want to know. And Denver and Plummer's, try inverse correlation to Brady.
Both of the above are critical in any statistical analysis and ironically they are both TOTALLY IGNORED. Again, that is my problem with FO, some times there are statistical issues that are easy and clear to discern, he should have the knowledge to recognize it, but he seems to be completely oblivious to them.