I think that Shaq will win it too, but it will be out of sentimentality. If he does win, he is definately deserving and more so than Nash IMO.
Nash is on a stacked team, and he makes that thing go, but that starting 5 is pretty awesome.
Duncan is the leagues MVP, but he has missed too many games this season and his numbers are down.
I guess you havent seen him much this season, but Dirk Nowitzki plays some pretty good defense. He is not an all-defensive team selection, but Garnett or Nash have nothing on him there.
The argument for Dirk is strengthened when you realize that he has been the player that has carried that team all season despite numerous injuries (and dont disregard those...Finley, Dampier, Stakhouse, and Daniels have all missed significant time) and a coaching change. He is also having the best and most complete (defense and offense) statistical season out of anyone listed.
Have you seen Dirk play in more than 10 games this season? The 'no D' label is a myth. The guy is 7'1 1/2". He blocks shots and steals balls and plays good helpside post defense.
I think that Shaq will get it, but if Dirk was playing in LA, Boston, or New York where he would be an instant media darling, it would be Nowitzki in a landslide. The guy has had too great of a year. They will get the 4th seed, but they will barely miss #1 or #2 despite playing together healthy all season until last Friday. That is all because of Nowitzki. That's impressive.