Originally Posted by AdamJT13
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the one third-round comp player got $5.33 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $3.95 million to $5.4 million, the only fifth-round comp player got $3.75 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.75 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round players got $1.5 million or less. When determining the approximate ranges for this year’s comps, I again used a 3.8-percent increase over last year’s levels and adjusted for playing time and postseason honors. Conveniently, there were gaps near the cutoff points for almost every round. For example, there were no comps for any players between $3.52 million (almost certainly a fifth-rounder) and $4.17 million (almost certainly a fourth-rounder). The one place where there is the biggest question is between the third and fourth rounds -- in particular, the comps for Bert Berry ($5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) and Damien Woody ($5.17 million, 16/16). I’ve projected that both of them will be fourth-round comps, although they could end up being third-rounders (one Denver newspaper has even reported that the Broncos would get a third-rounder). However, in each of the past two years, there have been players who signed for more than $5 million per season and were worth only fourth-round comps, so that’s where I’m projecting those two. One factor could be Ian Gold being released by the Buccaneers and being re-signed by the Broncos. He had signed for $5.464 million and, if the Broncos’ comp pick was for him instead of Berry, that might have been a third-round pick. But because he was released, he made only $2 million for one season. Since the Broncos signed two low-value qualifying players and lost three players, their comp will be for their highest-value player lost, which would be Berry. And I don’t think Berry’s contract is large enough to merit a third-round pick, despite his great season. But I could be wrong, and I could be with Woody, too.