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Old 03-10-2005, 11:08 PM   #1
Raider Bill
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Southern New Joisey
Posts: 4,194
Default AdamJT13 put out his compensatory pick predictions.

This cat is the goods... he is usually pretty damn close. Just an FYI



Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamJT13

THIRD ROUND

Tennessee (Jevon Kearse, $7.83 million, 14 GP/14 GS)
Kansas City (John Tait, $5.61 million, 13/13)
St. Louis (Grant Wistrom, $5.5 million, 9/9)

FOURTH ROUND
Denver (Bert Berry, $5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tampa Bay (Warren Sapp, $5.23 million, 16/16)
New England (Damien Woody, $5.17 million, 16/16)
Indianapolis (Marcus Washington, $4.17 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tennessee (Robaire Smith, $4.39 million, 16/16)

FIFTH ROUND
New England (Ted Washington, $3.5 million, 16/16)
Carolina (Jeno James, $3.52 million, 14/14)
Philadelphia (Carlos Emmons, $3.3 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Reggie Howard, $3.62 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Jason Webster, $3.01 million, 10/9)
Philadelphia (Bobby Taylor, $2.95 million, 10/0)
Oakland (Charlie Garner, $2.91 million, 3/3 IR)

SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (David Macklin, $2.6 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (Brian Young, $2.51 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Deon Grant, $2.42 million, 16/16)
Dallas (Ebenezer Ekuban, $2.52 million, 16/11)
Baltimore (Marcus Robinson, $2.25 million, 16/7)
Oakland (Matt Stinchcomb, $1.9 million, 16/16)
Philadelphia (Bobbie Williams, $1.75 million, 16/16)

SEVENTH ROUND
San Francisco (Tai Streets, $1.5 million, 13/12)
Seattle (Reggie Tongue, $1.33 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (John St. Clair, $1.3 million, 14/14)
Dallas (Mario Edwards, $1.5 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Travis Kirschke, $1.6 million, 16/1)
St. Louis (David Loverne, $867,000, 15/13)
Philadelphia (Marco Coleman, $785,000, 16/16)
Seattle (Willie Williams, $760,000, 16/10)
New England (Bobby Hamilton, $685,000, 16/15)
Cincinnati (Matt O’Dwyer, $685,000, PUP 4/0)



Last year, two of the comp picks I projected were off by one round. The highest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up being the only third-rounder, and the lowest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up being the only fifth-rounder. This year, it’s possible that the comp for Wis-trom could be a fourth-rounder, the comps for Berry and Woody could be third-rounders, the comps for Webster, Taylor and Garner and Edwards could be sixth-rounders, and the comps for Stinchcomb and Bobbie Williams could be seventh-rounders. The other comps, if they are awarded for the players I’ve indicated, should be in the correct rounds.

If I am wrong about Mike Compton qualifying or any of the three bubble players -- Bobby Ham-ilton, Matt O’Dwyer and Jermaine Wiggins -- qualifying, it could affect the comp picks awarded.

If Mike Compton does not qualify, New England would not get a seventh-round comp for Bobby Hamilton, and Carolina would get a seventh-rounder for Jermaine Wiggins (if he qualifies).

If Bobby Hamilton does not qualify, New England would not get a seventh-round comp for Hamilton, and Oakland would get a seventh-rounder for Rick Mirer.

If neither Mike Compton nor Bobby Hamilton qualifies, New England would get neither a fifth-round comp for Ted Washington nor a seventh-rounder for Hamilton, and Carolina would get a seventh-rounder for Jermaine Wiggins (if he qualifies), and Oakland would get a seventh-rounder for Rick Mirer.

If Matt O’Dwyer does not qualify, Cincinnati would not get a seventh-round comp for him, and Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder for Cornell Green.

If Jermaine Wiggins does not qualify, any scenario in which Carolina would have gotten a sev-enth-round comp for him would instead result in San Francisco getting a non-compensatory pick after the seventh-round comp picks.

If Jermaine Wiggins’ value is determined to be higher than Matt O’Dwyer’s value, Carolina would get the 32nd comp pick instead of Cincinnati, and all of the above scenarios in which Caro-lina would have gotten a seventh-round comp would instead result in Cincinnati getting a seventh-rounder (in this case, Carolina already would have one). But even if Wiggins’ value would be higher than O’Dwyer’s value, if O’Dwyer does not qualify, Carolina would not have the 32nd comp pick because Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder for Cornell Green. Carolina would then be in the same situation as above, needing another team’s comp pick to be eliminated in order to receive a seventh-rounder for Wiggins.

In the event that fewer than 32 true comp picks are awarded, the first seven teams in line to re-ceive non-compensatory picks would be San Francisco, Cleveland, Miami, Oakland, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Tennessee, in order.

This year’s compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around March 21. After they’re an-nounced, I’ll try to review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I’ve already presented some other possibilities).
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