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Old 03-24-2014, 05:24 PM   #17
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Monrovia, CA
Posts: 47,533

D.J. Williams

Originally Posted by mhgaffney View Post
As usual -- you are not paying attention. The US and Europe will be the main losers of sanctions against Russia.

Putin will simply increase gas sales to China.

How long do you think it would take the US to take up the slack? A year?

Germany will be in a world of trouble. In fact, it's surprising that Merkel has not stepped in to end this crisis. Surely she knows that it's in German's interest to move closer to Russia.

The memories of WW II are probably the biggest obstacle to this - but it needs to happen.

So what is deterring Merkel? Blackmail maybe? Do you think the NSA caught her doing something illegal -- or naughty in the bedroom?

You are way off as usual. Yes of course he is going to try to sell to China instead. In fact they may have an agreement in May. Three big problems though: 1) Quantity of sales- They amount they are hoping to sell is roughly 25% what they sell now to the EU, so replacing Europe with China is a massive loss of revenue 2) Price of sales - With China as the main remaining purchaser, they have no leverage and reports are China wants a cheaper price than what EU was paying 3) Market Supply - If the US lifts its export ban, what do you think the extra supply of oil on the market will do to price? It will fall...and so will the Russian economy.

Oh and your theory about Merkel is totally plausible, Gaff. I'm sure most 70 year old hags are ****ing anything that moves and she's been caught by the NSA in the bedroom.

Seems legit.
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