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Old 11-08-2013, 06:24 PM   #30
Just hanging out.
DenverBrit's Avatar
Got a breath mint??

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Denver
Posts: 15,125

The Team

David Weidner's article is spot on.

Your Twitter investment is doomed — here’s why
Commentary: Even successful companies find it hard to overcome hype

Do you think Warren is buying Twitter? Get real.

Your biggest problem is that you haven’t done your homework. You haven’t read the S-1. You probably have never read any S-1. You don’t even know what an S-1 is . That’s what makes you Wall Street’s favorite customer. You bought Groupon GRPN +0.39% and Zynga Inc. ZNGA 0.00% — but don’t talk about it with friends. You keep that tidbit under wraps. Like that unfortunate tattoo.

Now you’re crowing about how your Facebook Inc. FB -0.27% investment has turned around. Well, guess what? You got lucky. And I bet you sold most of your position on the way down. Frankly, it’s a wonder you have anything left to invest. Good thing there are still opportunities for you. Get used to saying, “Hello, and welcome to Walmart!”
To make it clear, I’m going to make it simple. I’m going to use the ABCs.

“A” is for active users. Twitter TWTR +0.24% has 200 million of them. That’s impressive. What’s more impressive? More than 650 million users are inactive. (Read: fad.)

“B” is for bonus. The underwriting brokers at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS +2.21% are looking at a big one if they can oversell Twitter. Given the last-minute price increases, it looks like they’ll get it.

“C” is for cashout. See also “B” (And cross-reference Twitter’s early backers.)

“D” is for Dorsey. As in Jack Dorsey, the most-visible co-founder of Twitter. Let’s be honest: Dorsey is a smart guy. But name a single innovative idea he’s had since Twitter was launched. Now compare Twitter’s evolution with Facebook’s. Facebook added video, messaging, new search capabilities — the list goes on. Twitter? Squat. Just a bunch of annoying ads, even if they’re called promoted tweets.

“E” is for ego. Twitter folks act as if they’ve cured cancer. What’s the difference between Twitter and a cancer cure? People would pay for a cure.

“F” is for Facebook. Twitter is exactly like Facebook except it doesn’t have active users, profits or any obvious way to make a profit.
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