Originally Posted by TonyR
Your second point is spot on. Your first point is not.
I think Nate Silver would disagree.
"The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact...The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington's mythology...Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House...The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences...The increasing extent of GOP partisanship is without strong recent precedent, and contributes to the systemic uncertainty about political outcomes...But there's a lot we don't know."
Politically, you're right. The Democrats had a great political win just now. But it doesn't really net them anything. There's no real momentum from the win. It's a "yay, we get to continue our course" win, and that course wasn't on track to begin with.
As far as the 2014 election, this gives them nothing. It's too far out, and there's too much that will happen between now and then.
The conservatives, on the other hand, are mobilizing for the primaries. Is there even any grassroots activity happening on the left to move the Democrats in their direction? If not, then the Democrats are losing.
I mean, look at what's happening in this country. The media is calling guys like Steve Christie and Scott Walker moderates. Are you familiar with Steve Christie's politics?
The Tea Part is moving the country t the right in front of our eyes, despite losing political battles like this one. Yeah, it's demoralizing for a day for them, but they aren't going away. This is seen as a long game political war, not a single issue fight.