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Old 10-09-2013, 10:43 AM   #4
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Meh. Anyone can.

Join Date: Sep 2013
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Originally Posted by Blart View Post
Do you understand the concept of probability? Pointing out that there's a 50% chance that a quarter will come up heads doesn't mean "LULZ epic fail! Stupid neuroscientist ftl!" when it comes up tails.
Predicting a 75% likelihood of a 26-seat swing, and then only 8 turn up? Sorry man, there's no way to dress up that fugly.

Regardless, those early odds of 74% seem crazy high, maybe because that was right after the democratic convention.

By the way, Sam Wang's final numbers on the house showed a democratic takeover chance of just 13%:
Yet we're much further away from the next election than that prediction was. So basically what you're saying is it's pretty useless to make these kind of predictions this far out.
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