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Old 10-09-2013, 09:46 AM   #1
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,352

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Default Sam Wang (better than Nate Silver): GOP likely to lose seats in '14

Since espn is slow launching the new 538, I found an alternative: Sam Wang. He's not only more accurate, but has been compiling polls longer than Mr. Silver.

Here's his (very) early data on the 2014 midterms:

PPP surveyed 24 Congressional districts currently held by Republicans. They asked voters to choose between their current representative and a generic Democrat (data as PDF). Here are the margins they got, plotted against last November’s election result:
His conclusion:

If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.
And it gets worse for the GOP:

Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election.
Anyway, great site for those who like to get nerdy about politics:
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