Ok..so here is what's going to happen...
1. The govt will shutdown.
2. The market will take a hit.
3. Public approval for both sides will take a hit....and the GOP will take the bigger hit.
4. After about a week of market instability and constituents calling in about lack of services and the military griping to the GOP about not getting paid, a deal will be struck that basically doesn't change the dynamic at all except that the debt limit will not be raised (currently we have till December) so as to give the House Republicans something to go back to their districts with.
5. Boehner will lose the speakership to Cantor in some postmortem bloodletting which will actually make the situation much worse going forward to the December talks.