View Single Post
Old 09-20-2013, 03:43 PM   #94
houghtam
Ring of Famer
 

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 6,396
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by frerottenextelway View Post
It's very possible, unfortunately.
It's not. The Senate doesn't get gerrymandered the way the House does. The Republicans may be able to pick up the three Silver is talking about (MT, WV, SD) because the Democrats don't have very strong candidates, even though the previous Democratic Senators in these states were fairly popular. They would still need an additional 3 seats.

Landrieu in LA has done a decent job, and the Republicans don't have a strong candidate to go against her. She leads the likely candidate (Cassidy) by 10 points in most polls.

Pryor in AR is probably in the weakest position, but it's split 50/50, and Pryor has had a steady approval rating above 50. History shows us it's very difficult to beat an incumbent with an approval rating over 50.

Kay Hagan in NC is in the strongest position because NC just isn't a red state anymore. She leads all challengers in most polls by 5-10%.

They would have to win all three, or two of the three and steal one like Iowa () or Michigan (quadruple ).

Then you add in the fact that even IF they picked up six seats, they still wouldn't be able to override a veto, and there is no Republican candidate other than Christie who can take out Clinton.

A lot can change in a year, but "mark my words - Cruz Senate Majority Leader and Paul GOP candidate" is laughable, particularly if the Republicans let this shutdown happen. It was worth about 5 points for Clinton back in the 90s.
houghtam is offline   Reply With Quote