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Old 08-11-2013, 08:45 PM   #24
Aftermath
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Dirty Glove
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Eric Decker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalBronco7 View Post
Damn, thats a thorough analysis.
Yes indeed. Thanks for that link. I used it for my team in my 12 team league.

It even breaks down each matchup for the season and potential free agents. If your a noob this is a perfect site. Heres mine:

QB: Tony Romo, Carson Palmer
RB: Arian Foster, Chris Ivory, Giovani Bernard, Ronnie Hillman, Bernard Pierce, LaMichael James
WR: Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Marques Colston, Chris Givens, Cordarrelle Patterson, A.J. Jenkins
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Marcedes Lewis
PK: Sebastian Janikowski
TD: New York Giants
Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2011 it was Cam Newton; in 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Chris Givens, Marques Colston, and Bernard Pierce. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 9 of 2011:

Arian Foster vs. CLE: 150 combined yards, 1 TD
Carson Palmer vs. DEN: 332 passing yards, 3 TD
Brandon Marshall vs. KC: 106 receiving yards, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. NYG: 101 receiving yards, 1 TD
QB Summary:

We have Tony Romo rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Carson Palmer (ranked #24 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Romo turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Palmer has what we project as a neutral matchup (JAX) during Romo's bye.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Tony Romo is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first quarterback. Heath Cummings reasons, "I think with all the talk about his work ethic, Tony Romo really has something to prove this season. He has Dez Bryant, newly established as an elite receiver, and the ever reliable Jason Witten to lean on. Assuming an improved Cowboys offensive line we may see Romo's best season since 2007."

Some of our staffers have Carson Palmer as high as #13, which would make him an above average second quarterback. Matt Waldman's take: "Palmer's demise is greatly exaggerated. He's a confident passer willing to target receivers in tight spots. That was the problem in Oakland because he lacked experienced receivers capable of catching these passes. Since Kurt Warner retired, Larry Fitzgerald has lacked a quarterback willing to give him the ball after getting two inches of daylight on his defender. If you ask me, this is like Chocolate and Peanut butter. "

RB Summary:

We like Arian Foster as a top RB, but we consider your starting running backs, as a group, to be a little below par. Our projections have Foster ranked at #3 and Chris Ivory ranked at #27.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see Giovani Bernard as an average third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Ronnie Hillman is an excellent RB4. Not only do we like Bernard Pierce as a fifth running back, we love that you stole him from the Ray Rice owner.

LaMichael James is a solid depth pick.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Chris Ivory is ranked #20 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second running back. Kyle Wachtel reasons, "Great combination of power and speed. Heading to a run-based offense. Health is the only obstacle."

Some members of our staff have Giovani Bernard ranked as high as 22nd, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. James Brimacombe defends his high ranking as follows: "With the Bengals shelling out a high second round pick on Bernard, they clearly have a vision for him in their offense. Bernard has such great speed, quickness, elusiveness, and hands that he will make life hard for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and should overtake him in production even in his rookie season. Some may question his size (5-8 200 lbs) and think he can't be an every down RB, but the fact is he has all the tools to succeed. "

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Brandon Marshall is our sixth ranked WR, Roddy White is #9, and we have Marques Colston 14th.

Chris Givens should serve as a very solid fourth receiver --- also probably a frequent flex contributor. Cordarrelle Patterson should be adequate at WR5. A.J. Jenkins is a very weak sixth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have A.J. Jenkins as high as #52, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR5. Adam Harstad's take: "To say that Jenkins' rookie year was disappointing is an understatement. Many people raised their eyebrows when the 49ers selected Jenkins earlier than expected. To many of those people, an invisible rookie season only confirmed their suspicions that Jenkins would bust. To this, I say poppycock. While few expected Jenkins to sneak into the first round, he was pretty universally considered a quality prospect coming into the league, and a slow rookie season has never been the death knell for receivers in the NFL. With Crabtree sidelined for most or all of the season, Jenkins enters 2013 with another opportunity to reward San Francisco's faith in him."

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Marcedes Lewis is an adequate second tight end.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Marcedes Lewis as high as #14, which would make him an above average second tight end. Jason Wood's take: "Marcedes Lewis isn't a world beater...how can he be with Blaine Gabbert at the helm? Yet, he finished 17th last year and the Jaguars failed to add any other threats to the receiving game. Lewis and WR Cecil Shorts will see plenty of targets, regardless of who is under center."

Kicker Summary:

We don't think Sebastian Janikowski is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

Defense Summary:

The Giants are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Giants', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Giants + Chargers = DAL | PHI | TEN | KC | PHI | CHI | JAX | PHI | WAS | OAK | MIA | KC | CIN | SD | SEA | DET | KC
Giants + Ravens = DAL | CLE | CAR | KC | PHI | CHI | PIT | PHI | CLE | CIN | CHI | NYJ | PIT | SD | DET | DET | CIN
Giants + Browns = MIA | BAL | CAR | KC | PHI | CHI | MIN | KC | BAL | OAK | CIN | PIT | JAX | SD | CHI | NYJ | PIT
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2014 season.

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted
At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Carson Palmer STL DET NO TB CAR SF SEA ATL HOU JAX IND PHI STL TEN SEA SF
Tony Romo NYG KC STL SD DEN WAS PHI DET MIN NO NYG OAK CHI GB WAS PHI

Giovani Bernard CHI PIT GB CLE NE BUF DET NYJ MIA BAL CLE SD IND PIT MIN BAL
Arian Foster SD TEN BAL SEA SF STL KC IND ARI OAK JAX NE JAX IND DEN TEN
Ronnie Hillman BAL NYG OAK PHI DAL JAX IND WAS SD KC NE KC TEN SD HOU OAK
Chris Ivory TB NE BUF TEN ATL PIT NE CIN NO BUF BAL MIA OAK CAR CLE MIA
LaMichael James GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAX CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI
Bernard Pierce DEN CLE HOU BUF MIA GB PIT CLE CIN CHI NYJ PIT MIN DET NE CIN

Marques Colston ATL TB ARI MIA CHI NE BUF NYJ DAL SF ATL SEA CAR STL CAR TB
Chris Givens ARI ATL DAL SF JAX HOU CAR SEA TEN IND CHI SF ARI NO TB SEA
A.J. Jenkins GB SEA IND STL HOU ARI TEN JAX CAR NO WAS STL SEA TB ATL ARI
Brandon Marshall CIN MIN PIT DET NO NYG WAS GB DET BAL STL MIN DAL CLE PHI GB
Cordarrelle Patterson DET CHI CLE PIT CAR NYG GB DAL WAS SEA GB CHI BAL PHI CIN DET
Roddy White NO STL MIA NE NYJ TB ARI CAR SEA TB NO BUF GB WAS SF CAR

Rob Gronkowski BUF NYJ TB ATL CIN NO NYJ MIA PIT CAR DEN HOU CLE MIA BAL BUF
Marcedes Lewis KC OAK SEA IND STL DEN SD SF TEN ARI HOU CLE HOU BUF TEN IND

Sebastian Janikowski IND JAX DEN WAS SD KC PIT PHI NYG HOU TEN DAL NYJ KC SD DEN

New York Giants DAL DEN CAR KC PHI CHI MIN PHI OAK GB DAL WAS SD SEA DET WAS

Relative Strength 99 99 101 101 103 101 98 97 104 101 94 101 99 99 101 97 100
Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
Week 11 presents serious bye week issues for you: Tony Romo and Chris Givens are off.
Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Arian Foster, Bernard Pierce, and Brandon Marshall are not playing.
Marques Colston and Sebastian Janikowski are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
Roddy White is out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
In weeks 4, 5, 9, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

POTENTIAL FREE AGENTS
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: Sam Bradford (11), Ryan Tannehill (6), Philip Rivers (8), Joe Flacco (8), Carson Palmer (9), Jake Locker (8), Brandon Weeden (10), Matt Flynn (7), EJ Manuel (12), Christian Ponder (5).

RB: Mike Tolbert (4), Marcel Reece (7), Stepfan Taylor (9), Jonathan Dwyer (5), Rashad Jennings (7), Zac Stacy (11), Roy Helu (5), Toby Gerhart (5), LaMichael James (9), Denard Robinson (9).

WR: Julian Edelman (10), T.J. Graham (12), Braylon Edwards (10), Santonio Holmes (10), Riley Cooper (12), Donnie Avery (10), Doug Baldwin (12), Josh Morgan (5), Keenan Allen (8), Leonard Hankerson (5), Domenik Hixon (4), Jacoby Ford (7), Nate Burleson (9), Aaron Dobson (10), Dexter McCluster (10), Jordan Shipley (9), Davone Bess (10), Marvin Jones (12), Santana Moss (5). We have all these players rated ahead of A.J. Jenkins.

TE: Jared Cook (11), Antonio Gates (8), Owen Daniels (8), Fred Davis (5), Jordan Cameron (10), Kyle Rudolph (5), Martellus Bennett (8), Brandon Pettigrew (9), Dustin Keller (6), Jermaine Gresham (12), Brandon Myers (9), Marcedes Lewis (9).

PK: Josh Brown (9), David Akers (9), Steve Hauschka (12), Blair Walsh (5), Mason Crosby (4), Kai Forbath (5), Dan Bailey (11), Adam Vinatieri (8), Lawrence Tynes (5), Mike Nugent (12), Greg Zuerlein (11), Robbie Gould (8), Shaun Suisham (5), Alex Henery (12), Sebastian Janikowski (7).

TD: Cincinnati Bengals (12), Denver Broncos (9), New York Giants (9), Arizona Cardinals (9), St. Louis Rams (11), Atlanta Falcons (6), Cleveland Browns (10), Minnesota Vikings (5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5), San Diego Chargers (8).
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