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Old 05-15-2013, 09:15 AM   #104
Requiem
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Quote:
Originally Posted by houghtam View Post
It's less about favorability and more about inertia. There is no real reason to unseat the incumbent in this case. No public mandate, no outcry. Incumbents are historically very difficult to get rid of, regardless of party............................

...........................Which is why Merkley only barely squeaked by last time in Oregon. If I were a betting man, I would put lots of money on a Democratic incumbent in the "blue as the day is long" state of Oregon.
I'm not saying there is a reason in Franken's case, just that Minnesota has an unstable and ambiguous voting history with an easily swayed electorate. And I agree with you that Merkley will likely win out. Either way, I think these races will be within the MOE.
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