Originally Posted by cutthemdown
Mark Begich of Alaska, Max Baucus of Montana, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Pryor of Arkansas.
Sen. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey is an obvious candidate to retire. He'll be 90 by November 2014. And Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia will be 77 by the midterms.
I think dems lose all 8 of these seats, and defend most, if not all of the other 12.
They lose Alaska for sure...the others are not as clear as you think.
Baucus was a DINO, but he also won 73% of the vote last time. The vote will be much closer than 73%, but not in the bag for R by a long shot.
Hagan got 53% last time, and current polling shows her up by 10 or more against most candidates. A lot of time left for things to change. Unfortunately memories fade.
South Dakota will be interesting as well. Tim Johnson with 63% of the vote last time, but will not run for re-election.
Louisiana is probably the next most likely to fall to R IMO. Landrieu only had 52% like Hagan, and is up by 10+ against potential opponents, but Louisiana is a much more conservative state than North Carolina.
In Arkansas, Mark Pryor ran unopposed last time and got 80% of the vote. Republicans are going to have their work cut out for them in a state which otherwise should have been an easy win...don't count out the importance of the ground game, on which the R's will have to make huge strides.
I only see one sure loss to R's here. Now obviously I highly doubt they defend all their seats, but like Req and peace said, history shows they were going to lose a few anyway. A lot will change over the next 18 months, but the IRS thing? Req's right. It's going on right now and your average voter (you know, one who doesn't frequent political message boards everyday) doesn't have a clue about it...nor do they care.
I see a 3-4 seat gain for Republicans. Anything more is really
optimistic for the Republicans, based on history, polling and past electoral performance.