Potentially Vulnerable Democratic Senate Seats:
Al Franken, MN -- MN is a pretty liberal state, but Franken isn't very popular and barely won last time around. Should be within the margin of error.
Tim Johnson, SD -- Long-time Senator will be retiring this year primarily due to health reasons. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin will not be running for the Democrats. Former (R) Governor of SD Mike Rounds will be running, and the only other Democrat to announce a bid is former Tom Daschle staffer Rick Weiland. Although the Democrats have had success in this very conservative state, I think Rounds will win on name-basis if the Democrats cannot field a better candidate.
Mark Begich, AK -- He barely won last time around even with the Ted Stevens controversy. Polling right now has Begich ahead slightly, but within the margin of error without a name even being fielded by Republicans. I think the Democrats lose this seat unless the GOP trots out a real loser.
Jeff Merkley, OR -- won in a squeaker back in 2008. Polling right now indicates it will be another close race, even with Oregon being a more liberal state. I think this is one they can hang on to, but I cannot say how popular Merkley is there. Advantage right now (small) to the incumbent.
Mary Landrieu, LA -- I don't think Mary Landrieu gets out of this one as a winner. Just my gut instinct. Know nothing about Louisiana politics, other than the fact that is a traditionally conservative state.
Kay Hagan, NC -- North Carolina's demographics and economic changes are making the state a little bit more liberal, but I definitely think this is a state the Republicans can recapture in 2014.
I think all the Northeastern States with races are safe for Democrats, the exception could be New Hampshire. Max Baucus is pretty popular in Montana, but I'd throw that in as a wildcard race as well.
As far as vulnerable Republican senate seats, Kentucky (McConnell) and Maine (Collins) would be the Democrats best bets to try and steal a state. Other than that, nowhere.
Last edited by Requiem; 05-15-2013 at 07:07 AM..