View Single Post
Old 04-24-2013, 10:22 AM   #58
houghtam
Ring of Famer
 

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 6,396
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoBeavis View Post
Here's the fundamental problem for Democrats next time around.

Obama can't run again. And a Hillary or JoeBi electorate will look nothing like the one that rose up around the President.

Candidate quality matters. A lot. It drives turnout. When that doesn't happen, motivated issue voters (even single issue voters) start to make more of a difference. It's why midterm elections generally look way different than Presidential ones. Democrats got their clocks cleaned with Clinton in office during midterms. But the people still reelected Clinton, because the other guy (although a nice guy) wasn't a good candidate. At least not in today's media-driven age.

In 2016, everything pretty much starts all over again. Anyone making declarations about what happens afterwards is kidding themselves.
Umm, have you actually looked at the models out there? The Republicans will have to have an historic performance with white voters to counteract even the most conservative Democrat minority turnout models.

But sure, I'm sure this is just another case of us telling ourselves what we want to hear, and there's no chance Fill-in-the-blank loses.
houghtam is offline   Reply With Quote