Thread: Manti runs
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Old 03-26-2013, 07:37 PM   #148
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Spencer Larsen

Originally Posted by orinjkrush View Post
Inside Linebacker: The CAV model for inside linebackers also did a poor job at predicting linebackers success, yet somehow it found 40-yard dash to be significant, as did the bizarre model predicting draft pick.

Pick = -35304.72*40-yard dash +9873.35*40-yard dash^2 -775.74*40-yard dash^3 +133435.6

It isn’t the friendliest looking model, but there it is with respective p-values of 0.024, 0.025, 0.025, and 0.023, and adjusted R^2 of 0.11, and a MSE of 60.48. Kevin said it best in his original post with, “These combine measurements simply do not do a good job of predicting performance for linebackers.” Effectively, the only thing that can be taken from this model is that there is much more that makes a successful linebacker than the combine is able to measure, though speed may have a small say in it.

The cav model prediction algorithm for ILB doesn't allow for high performers, a player setting a record for 40 yard time at the combine running a 4.20 would be expected to have an AV of 4.3, DJ Williams for example had an AV around 7 on average. An ILB who runs a 4.40 which would be an impressive time for a RB or WR would be expected to have an AV of 3 which is about the level of what Tony Carter and Mitch Unrein each did last season. For a LB who has the type of impact of Patrick Willis to fit the model he would have to run a 3.4 40 yard time, for reference a 3.4 40 yard time corresponds to a 9.28 second 100 meter sprint time, or if you ran it without having to start from stationary every 40 yards, about 8.4 seconds.
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