Originally Posted by BroncoInferno
Neither Kiper nor McShay have him going in the 1st in their most recent mocks, nor do they list him in their top 25 (Kiper) or 32 (McShay) lists. Mayock has him as the 3rd rated 4-3 DE, but I don't think he's issued a mock yet, so not sure where he projects him there. The upper body strength is a HUGE question mark, as you mentioned, and he also has character/work ethic questions that are driving down his value. I'll be surprised if he goes in the 1st, and won't be too happy if we reach for him that early. In the 2nd round after a trade back (as you suggest)? Fine. But I don't think he's good value at #28. Just my opinion.
Sure, after Kiper has had him going #2 a big chunk of the off-season. This is the "hedging their bets" portion of their job. But even after his combine they were all still talking about him as a first rounder. Him now being removed is the ESPN bracketology approach to mock drafts - put enough of 'em out there you're sure to look good on one of them.
If Moore didn't have the physical conditioning/work ethic questions he'd be a top 10 pick. You using those to claim he isn't worth the #28th is rather disingenuous. We aren't getting a perfect player at #28. Moore happens to have the height/weight ratio and fundamental technique needed to be a successful end in the NFL, and he's got a highly productive college career to back that up. As far as flaws to his game go they're pretty minor compared to what A LOT of late first rounders will have (such as simply being under-sized, incredibly raw, or physically deficient in an area they have no legitimate hope of improving on, like slow CBs).
I'm sure we'd all love to see a trade down and still get a guy like Moore because lets face it, we're all pick whores at heart. But the guy is likely still a top 40 or so player in a pretty tightly packed 5-75 group of prospects. If he's the guy they like and they believe Del Rio and Miller can motivate him, but think he'll be gone before where they can trade back to why take the risk?
Moore is the kind of prospect who either becomes Jarvis Moss or Jason Pierre Paul depending on how dedicated he is to becoming a better player.
Speaking of Pierre Paul, he bested Moore's 40 time with a 4.71 (instead of Moore's 4.95 hamstring-tweaked run), but he also only did 19 reps on the bench (what Moore did at his pro day) while carrying an extra 10 pounds, his vertical was 5 inches shorter (30.5" v. 35.5") his broad jump was half a foot shorter (9'7" v. 10'2"), his 20 yard shuttle was slower by a greater margin than their 40 times (4.67 for JPP, 4.33 for Moore), and their 3 cone was close enough to be the same.
So he's got comparable athletic measurables to one of the better young pass rushers in the league. His 40 time is just a black mark that scares people away. Last I checked DEs don't generally run 40 yards in a straight line too often. Something that measured short area bursts of power (like the vertical and broad jump) or change of direction followed by quick acceleration (like the 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone drill) would be more representative.
If one of the least important DE numbers scares other teams off we only look to benefit if you ask me.