Chiefs will definitely be better than last year. They might even get to 10-6, but 8-8, 7-9 is more likely. And Reid has a lot of different new parts to try to gel an offense and defense around. New QB, New defensive players, new scheme all around. I will take time to gel. They almost definitely will finish second in the division, and should Manning go down, or we get a lot of significant injuries, maybe first...but only if the Broncos injury problems come early and often.
Oakland probably 4th and SD 3rd if Rivers keeps regressing, and McCoy installs his predictable offense. They might battle for last place with Oakland though at 4-5 wins.