I'm not as confident of even getting out of the first round as most. Memphis has been on a roll since the Rudy Gay trade. Clippers are very dangerous with Griffin and CP3. Nuggets can beat those teams, but could also lose to them... so don't see them as a lock to even get that far. But if they could get up to #3 somehow, would have to like their chances of at least getting out of the first round.
Until they do it, people are going to continue to doubt a team can win without a superstar (even if Melo really wasn't one anyways... at least in the playoffs)