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Old 03-11-2013, 10:09 AM   #143
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Spencer Larsen

Originally Posted by Requiem View Post
I think the front office has come to the conclusion that they are better off getting rid of one players large contract in hopes to be able to sign several players at other positions of need in order to win a championship. Dumervil is a fan favorite, has been nothing but a team player and a has had a successful NFL career ever since he was drafted all those years ago. Financially -- is he worth it?

His contract was given to him when he had his best season ever as a 3-4 OLB. Depsite the premium on pass rushers in the NFL, is it really worth the Broncos to invest $12 million this year in him, as well as $8-10 million the next three years (not sure what the true total is with bonus) for a guy who has averaged ~ 9 sacks a year as a 4-3 DE?

The coaches and FO must obviously feel he is not worth his salary given his production. After some thought, I do hope we ignore Freeney, but he would probably come on a significant discount by virtue of past production, age and the fact he wants to play with Manning. I think Osi would be a good fit for the defense and would have success under JDR and would come at easily half the price than what we are paying Dumervil now. I think they also might get by with Ayers and Jackson in a rotation. I know JDR raved about Ayers when he had the opportunity to coach him at the Senior Bowl. It will give the FO a good idea if he is a guy worth extending beyond his final year of his rookie contract.

Coupled in with financials, this is about asset allocation. The Broncos know that over the next two off-seasons, several young and rising stars on their roster will be due significant pay raises, they include:
  • Von Miller
  • Demaryius Thomas
  • Eric Decker (FA after this year)
  • Zane Beadles (FA after this year)
  • Chris Harris
  • Wesley Woodyard (FA after this year)
  • Ryan Clady (FA, if he is extended beyond his Franchise Tag)

I wouldn't want to see any of these guys go to another team. This also doesn't include guys like Orlando Franklin and others who have two years remaining on their rookie deals. One or two years left remaing makes up the majority of players on the Broncos roster. Axing Dumervil is part of a process (IMHO) that will give us flexibility in the cap in the long run and dishing him out now will allow the Broncos Brass to set up parameters for new contracts that will have to be given sooner than later.

I assume that Manning/Bailey will be off the books in a couple of more seasons as well. Champ has two years left on his contract and it is known he won't be getting 9 million a year if he decides to give it a last ride past that. At some point in time, I believe Manning will retire (probably in two seasons) or have to be approached about re-structure.

Moving on from Dumervil gets rid of our second largest contract and frees up space for what we need to keep at home for the future, as well as bring in to win now. It is sad to see us cut a guy of his caliber outright, but **** -- we really don't have a choice, now do we? If we want to stay competitive for the long-haul, we need to take care of guys who have a bright future ahead of them.

If getting rid of Dumervil means we can bring in a guy like Osi, as well as being able to dish for Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Sean Smith, etc. -- I am all for it. It's quite possible we can get a 2-for-1 or perhaps 3-for-1 on players coming to this roster for what we would be spending on Dumervil alone. I think that is how the FO sees it and I can't blame them. Dumervil, Williams, Mays and likely a few others will be gone and allow us to really make an impact moving forward.
I think you are right about some of these things, but there are other factors to consider. Clearly next year is going to be quite huge when it comes to free agents, Clady, Decker, Beadles and Woodyard all played very well this year and could command big contracts.

On the flip side of that however you have Champ Bailey set to make 9 million in 2 years, Mays set to make 4 million, Mcgahee set to make 2 million - that alone represents what I expect to be 15 million in cap savings by cutting those 3 players. 15 million will be enough to pay Beadles, Woodyard and Decker I believe. Clady will continue having a cap hit of roughly what he has this season under the franchise tag. In 2 years when Von Miller, Thomas and whoever is tagged next year will need a new deal there is a real probability that Peyton Manning and his 20 million will come off the books, which would effectively free up the space we need. Even though Manning has 4 years left nominally, I do not believe he will play out all 4.

Chris Harris will be RFA, so he will be cheap for another season.

What will be really interesting next season is the cap dynamics, a lot of teams this year are struggling to get under the cap and only a few teams have enough cap room to really throw around big deals. Next season the cap will most likely stay almost entirely unchanged, but many contracts will escalate and we will see very few teams handing out big contracts, but still a significant number of salary cuts. I do think we will see a lot of tiering in terms of free agency with a few highly coveted players getting big contracts, but a very competitive buyers market when it comes to veteran starters below the pro-bowl level. This could lead to players taking less money in exchange for security of staying where they are and may help out resigning free agents.

Why would we want to bring in Osi? He has started 8 games over the last 2 seasons combined and has 8 sacks to show for it, he has only 3 seasons with double digit sacks and one of those came off the back of a 6 sack game against a chump, he is not in Dumervils class as a pass rusher and is no better as a run defender - this is a pure downgrade. Reggie Bush is Tatum Bell who can catch the ball, building a run game around him is a horrible idea as both Miami and New Orleans discovered.
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