Originally Posted by Beantown Bronco
If we're being consistent, it would be someone with a 97% chance of moving the runner along....vs swinging away and having a 30-40% chance of getting on base, but a greater than 50% chance of striking out or hitting into a double play.
I think you're only looking at run v pass (and even there I can't imagine PM having a less than 50% chance of completing that pass.)
I'm also talking about the kind of run that was called. You could've designed a run (still 97% sure to run the clock) that had a much better chance of netting 7 yards. They should've at least made an attempt to get Hillman outside in space (with 7 ytg). Maybe it's a 10% chance. But it's better than the 0% chance he had up the gut.