Originally Posted by Willynowei
Seriously i remember coming to the mane because the team forum at denverbroncos.com was full of retards that don't know a thing about football, well now i'm not sure this place is significantly better, considering all i hear is that we should have passed the ball on third and long with 1:20 left.
Here's why all of you are dead wrong.
1.) Chance of conversion is EXTREMELY LOW:
The highest conversion rate of 3rd downs in the entire NFL is New England at an impressive 48%. That's including 3rd and 1's, 3rd and 2's, 3rd and 3's. The Actual likelihood of converting a 3rd and 7 with the best offense in the NFL is way way way below 50%.
2.) Field position and Time:
40 seconds left, 0 time outs, 80 yards: This is what the offense hands the defense.
When exactly 80 seconds are left on the clock, 40 seconds equates to 50% of the time left, when you sit nearly at mid field, your punt has an extremely high chance of pinning the opponent inside their 20.
so Here's what you get by running off 40 seconds.
Scenario A: Opposing offense has 80 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds on average to run, they can cover 60 yards in 6 plays at 10 seconds each and have 20 seconds and 2 or 3 plays at the endzone from our redzone, that's a pretty good shot at scoring.
Scenario B: Opposing offense has 40 seconds: If each play takes 10 seconds again, they now have only 3 tries to get 60 yards and have 1 or 2 shots at the endzone in scoring. This means your defense doesn't have to worry about anything less than 20 yards deep, and if there's any completions over the middle, even if they were for 40 yards, that would burn something like 30 seconds off the clock and the next shot would have to go at the endzone.
In other words - half decent prevent defense should make scenario B impossible against any offense, no matter how talented as long as you sit back and keep everything in front of you, where as scenario A gives them enough time to have a realistic shot at tieing the game. (I'll flesh this out more in point 4 as well)
3.) Touchdown was required, not a field goal:
The Ravens needed a touchdown, not a field goal, comebacks like the one Matt Ryan lead with timeouts and 30 seconds to score a field goal is relatively common, touchdowns off a prayer pass with 40 seconds left is almost unheard of.
4.) It is impossible for the opposing team to win if you play prevent properly.
NFL plays, even when running no huddle require 6-10 seconds to execute, and another 10 setup for a second play, the Ravens essentially had time to run a total of 3 full plays over the middle or 4 plays to the sideline assuming Flacco hits all of his completions.
This means each completion must average over 20 yards to even have a shot at the endzone that's not a hail mary. If you rush 3 and play prevent the likelyhood of scoring is almost 0%, why would anyone whose logical not like those odds?
5.) Peyton Manning made the right field call:
Manning is a cerebral player, if he sees 2-high safeties, he knows its 7 in the box and a run is almost guaranteed to get at least some yardage, in fact, we could even make an argument on the question: What is more likely to gain a first down against a defense looking for pass with a 2-man coverage called? A run or a pass?
Who said we had no chance to pick up that first down with a run. We in actuality ran time off the clock and gave ourselves a chance to get the first down as well - a chance probably not much worse than the slim chance at converting a 3rd and long over the air against 2 high man.
I want to be politically correct and say something down the middle, but you guys who are criticizing manning or the offensive call are all a bunch of ****ing idiots.
You run the ball there, that gives you the best chance to win in that situation. They were down a touchdown not a fieldgoal, there were 0 timeouts and field position gave us the best chance to win with defense.
At some point you have play defense in the NFL, otherwise everyone would onside kick it every single time. In this game we lost because of poor safety play.
If you want to blame John Fox, blame him because didn't play prevent at a point in the game where pressing your corners up in the flats with a cover 2 defense made no sense (who the **** cares about 5-10 yard outs with 40 seconds left and 80 yards to go for a touchdown?).
So go ahead make fire Moore or fire fox threads about defensive errors but don't talk about stupid sh*t like "we should've gone for the first down". That's the stupidest sh*t i've ever heard.