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Old 01-11-2013, 11:44 AM   #13
Rock Chalk
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Join Date: Oct 2001
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Chris Harris

Originally Posted by Kaylore View Post
Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.
No, its not even the odds.

Whatever Silver did, he went out on a limb picking New England.

the odds favor Denver.

Football Outsiders favors Denver (in the AFC)

And while Silver has been right in politics and baseball, he is a far cry from knowing what football outsiders does and even football outsiders doesn't have a good track record of predicting football games.

In fact, football is the most unpredictable of all sports (NFL that is). In the NBA and College hoops there are literally dozens of really fantastic metrics that are great predictors. IN baseball they can basically just stop playing because the predictors in them are extremely refined.

But football, the best model is DVOA from football outsiders and they are wrong far more often than they are right.
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